2816 Rodeo Ct · Fuquay-Varina, NC 27592

$274,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,558 sqft · Townhouse · 3 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $280k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to The Hemingway at Saunders Farm - an inviting and thoughtfully designed home in one of Fuquay-Varina's most sought-after new communities, just minutes from downtown Fuquay-Varina with dining, entertainment, breweries, and charming local

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2026
• Listed 2 days

Tags

• THOUGHTFULLY DESIGNED HOME
• SOUGHT-AFTER COMMUNITY
• MINUTES FROM DOWNTOWN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $274,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Located at 2816 Rodeo Ct, Willow Spring, NC

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Spec home — Hemingway plan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($6/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.0% in Fuquay-Varina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Willow Springs Elementary (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #120 of 1,410 statewide, top 9%, 656 students, 33% FRL); Fuquay-Varina Middle (math 42% / reading 55%, grade C-, #127 of 475 statewide, top 28%, 1,164 students, 29% FRL); Fuquay-Varina High (math 65% / reading 67%, grade B, #154 of 535 statewide, top 29%, 1,940 students, 26% FRL) — zoned schools at 29% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,619 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $280,440
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1962 Dapple Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,558 (0%)	2mo	$279,990	$180	96

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-44,492
• Equity at exit: $41,002

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-38,555
• Equity at exit: $23,776

Cash invested: $76,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27592

• Home prices YoY: -17.9%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,406 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,125/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $0

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,406

Max offer price $274,990

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $191	-5% $96	+0% $0	+5% $-95	+10% $-190
Rent	-10% $-190	-5% $-95	+0% $0	+5% $96	+10% $191
Rate	-1.0pp $139	-0.5pp $70	base $0	+0.5pp $-71	+1.0pp $-143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,748
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2917 Horse Rein Pl Willow Spring, NC	3.0	2.5	2210	$2,300	$1.04	16d	1	0.11mi
1200 Matterhorn Dr Fuquay Varina, NC	3.0	2.5	1924	$2,095	$1.09	6d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 246-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $274,990 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,874
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,125
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,310
• − Management: −$2,310
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$4,649
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,116
• After-tax cash flow: $1,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wake County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704720
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,509
• Composite: 49.41/100
• National rank: #2010
• State rank: #35 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fuquay-Varina

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fuquay-Varina, NC
• County: Johnston County · 175,441 people
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 21,114
• Household income: $104,252
• Rent vs Own: 11.3% rent · 88.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 84.0

Population outlook (Wake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,293,152 people
• By 2030: 1,428,223 · +10.4%
• By 2040: 1,698,188 · +31.3%
• By 2050: 1,955,807 · +51.2%
• By 2075: 2,520,273 · +94.9%
• By 2100: 2,893,335 · +123.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Wake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.5) · D 61.9% · R 36.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.1pp toward D · 2008: 14.4pp · 2024: 25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.5 2020: D+26.4 2016: D+20.5 2012: D+10.2 2008: D+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.54%
• Current HPI: 254.0078
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B