48316 Summer Trail Rd · Johnson, OK 74864

$129,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 920 sqft · SingleFamily · 133 Days on market

Built 1988 3.75 ac lot ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.4/10.0
• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Two manufactured, tiny homes on one property! Beautiful 3.75 acre lot with so many extras! The main tiny home is just darling with every inch planned and utilized! Living area with wood burning stove, nice loft, bedroom and bathroom. Front porch overlooks olive, apple, pear, peach and fig trees. Backyard is fenced and includes a tool and potting shed. The second tiny home sits right next door. It has newer kitchen cabinets and laminate wood flooring. This would make for a great second living quarter or a darling she-shed! The mobile home will be hauled off. This is such a unique property! Make it yours today!

Key facts

• 3.75 acre lot
• Front porch
• Fenced backyard

Tags

• 3.75 ACRE LOT
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• FRONT PORCH
• FENCED BACKYARD
• TOOL AND POTTING SHED
• NEWER KITCHEN CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Interior lot; Approximately 3.75 acres
• Financial info: Loan-qualified: Yes; Not assumable
• HOA & community: No mandatory association dues

Exterior

• Utilities: Homestead status claimed
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property (existing)
• Construction: Aluminum and mobile construction; Metal roof; Conventional foundation; Built as a model: No
• Exterior features: Outbuildings

Interior

• Kitchen: Freestanding electric range and oven
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No central heating; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: One living area; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: No heating system listed; Window cooling units

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (14.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (34.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $85k (34.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#451 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Prague (rural): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #45 of 270 in OK (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 183 units permitted in Pottawatomie County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (8.9% local appreciation)).
• Pottawatomie County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,744 (34.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.46%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.87% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $54,111
• Equity at exit: $106,509

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.47×
• Total profit: $162,553
• Equity at exit: $219,349

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74864

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $847 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $470/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $-105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $980

Max offer price $111,347

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $129,900 Active 133 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $129,900 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $129,900 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $129,900 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $129,900 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $129,900 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $129,900 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $129,900 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $129,900 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $129,900 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $129,900 Active 113 DOM
16. 2026-02-06
    listed $129,900 Active
17. 2024-12-11
    historical
18. 2024-09-18
    historical
19. 2024-09-17
    listed $129,900 Active
20. 2024-07-09
    listed $145,000 Active
21. 2024-05-19
    historical
22. 2024-05-18
    status Active
23. 2024-05-03
    historical
24. 2024-05-01
    listed $145,000 Active
25. 2024-04-20
    historical
26. 2023-11-21
    price $135,000
27. 2023-11-17
    price $130,000
28. 2023-10-13
    price $135,000
29. 2023-10-06
    historical
30. 2023-10-06
    listed $140,000 Active
31. 2023-09-18
    price $140,000
32. 2023-08-30
    price $145,900
33. 2023-08-11
    price $146,400
34. 2023-06-08
    price $147,400
35. 2023-04-06
    listed $149,900 Active
36. 2022-01-20
    historical
37. 2021-10-23
    price $165,000
38. 2021-09-07
    listed $180,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $470 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,169 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$699/yr (+$58/mo · 148.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,169
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$470
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$814
• − Management: −$814
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$3,633
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$872
• After-tax cash flow: $-388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prague
• NCES district ID: 4024930
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $47,676
• Composite: 28.87/100
• National rank: #6643
• State rank: #45 of 270 in OK

Livability — Johnson

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #451
• US rank: #21456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,803

Population outlook (Pottawatomie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 76,622 people
• By 2030: 78,816 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 82,766 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 86,031 · +12.3%
• By 2075: 93,316 · +21.8%
• By 2100: 95,820 · +25.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 8% Native American 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pottawatomie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.2% · R 72.7% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.1pp toward R · 2008: -38.4pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+46.0 2016: R+46.5 2012: R+38.7 2008: R+38.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.87%
• Current HPI: 325.0194
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-27.8% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $129,900 MLSOK
• 2024-12-11 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2024-09-18 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2024-09-17 Listed $129,900 MLSOK
• 2024-07-09 Listed $145,000 MLSOK
• 2024-05-19 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2024-05-18 Relisted — MLSOK
• 2024-05-03 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2024-05-01 Listed $145,000 MLSOK
• 2024-04-20 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2023-11-21 Price Changed $135,000 MLSOK
• 2023-11-17 Price Changed $130,000 MLSOK
• 2023-10-13 Price Changed $135,000 MLSOK
• 2023-10-06 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2023-10-06 Listed $140,000 MLSOK
• 2023-09-18 Price Changed $140,000 MLSOK
• 2023-08-30 Price Changed $145,900 MLSOK
• 2023-08-11 Price Changed $146,400 MLSOK
• 2023-06-08 Price Changed $147,400 MLSOK
• 2023-04-06 Listed $149,900 MLSOK
• 2022-01-20 Listing Removed — MLSOK
• 2021-10-23 Price Changed $165,000 MLSOK
• 2021-09-07 Listed $180,000 MLSOK

Property tax history

+15.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $470 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.