4125 94th Ave NW · Chilgren, MN 56673

$109,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,052 sqft · SingleFamily · 263 Days on market

Built 1988 5.00 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Northwoods Retreat! This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom log home offers a quiet setting on 5 wooded acres located North of Roosevelt. Enjoy the fall colors while having coffee on the front porch. Includes 2 sheds for storage, 6 inch drilled well with metal casing, private septic system and an updated electric hot water heater. Located just 7 miles from Arnesen’s Rocky Resort on Lake of the Woods - this would make a great base for fishing trips or hunting all of the vast public lands in the area. Bring your tools...the cabin/home needs some work and is being sold as-is, however the property is priced accordingly and offers very good potential. Reach out today for more details!

Key facts

• Front porch
• 5 wooded acres
• 6 inch drilled well

Tags

• 5 WOODED ACRES
• FRONT PORCH
• 2 SHEDS FOR STORAGE
• 6 INCH DRILLED WELL
• PRIVATE SEPTIC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (4.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Warroad Public School District (rural): math 42% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #153 of 301 in MN (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Lake of the Woods County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($760 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake of the Woods County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $96,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.59%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $34,178
• Equity at exit: $62,019

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.10×
• Total profit: $95,512
• Equity at exit: $106,823

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56673

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,047 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $738/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $865

Max offer price $109,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $205	-5% $174	+0% $143	+5% $112	+10% $81
Rent	-10% $61	-5% $102	+0% $143	+5% $185	+10% $226
Rate	-1.0pp $199	-0.5pp $171	base $143	+0.5pp $115	+1.0pp $86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,900 Active 263 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,900 Active 261 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,900 Active 260 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,900 Active 259 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,900 Active 258 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,900 Active 256 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $109,900 Active 255 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,900 Active 252 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,900 Active 251 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 250 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,900 Active 249 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $109,900 Active 246 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,900 Active 245 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,900 Active 244 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 243 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,900 Active 242 DOM
17. 2026-04-14
    price $109,900 681-char remark

    Show marketing remark (681 chars)

    Northwoods Retreat! This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom log home offers a quiet setting on 5 wooded acres located North of Roosevelt. Enjoy the fall colors while having coffee on the front porch. Includes 2 sheds for storage, 6 inch drilled well with metal casing, private septic system and an updated electric hot water heater. Located just 7 miles from Arnesen’s Rocky Resort on Lake of the Woods - this would make a great base for fishing trips or hunting all of the vast public lands in the area. Bring your tools...the cabin/home needs some work and is being sold as-is, however the property is priced accordingly and offers very good potential. Reach out today for more details!

18. 2025-12-05
    status Active 681-char remark

    Show marketing remark (681 chars)

    Northwoods Retreat! This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom log home offers a quiet setting on 5 wooded acres located North of Roosevelt. Enjoy the fall colors while having coffee on the front porch. Includes 2 sheds for storage, 6 inch drilled well with metal casing, private septic system and an updated electric hot water heater. Located just 7 miles from Arnesen’s Rocky Resort on Lake of the Woods - this would make a great base for fishing trips or hunting all of the vast public lands in the area. Bring your tools...the cabin/home needs some work and is being sold as-is, however the property is priced accordingly and offers very good potential. Reach out today for more details!

19. 2025-12-01
    historical Contingent - Inspection 681-char remark

    Show marketing remark (681 chars)

    Northwoods Retreat! This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom log home offers a quiet setting on 5 wooded acres located North of Roosevelt. Enjoy the fall colors while having coffee on the front porch. Includes 2 sheds for storage, 6 inch drilled well with metal casing, private septic system and an updated electric hot water heater. Located just 7 miles from Arnesen’s Rocky Resort on Lake of the Woods - this would make a great base for fishing trips or hunting all of the vast public lands in the area. Bring your tools...the cabin/home needs some work and is being sold as-is, however the property is priced accordingly and offers very good potential. Reach out today for more details!

20. 2025-09-29
    listed $119,900 Active 681-char remark

    Show marketing remark (681 chars)

    Northwoods Retreat! This 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom log home offers a quiet setting on 5 wooded acres located North of Roosevelt. Enjoy the fall colors while having coffee on the front porch. Includes 2 sheds for storage, 6 inch drilled well with metal casing, private septic system and an updated electric hot water heater. Located just 7 miles from Arnesen’s Rocky Resort on Lake of the Woods - this would make a great base for fishing trips or hunting all of the vast public lands in the area. Bring your tools...the cabin/home needs some work and is being sold as-is, however the property is priced accordingly and offers very good potential. Reach out today for more details!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $738 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $984 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$246/yr (+$21/mo · 33.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,560
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$738
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,005
• − Management: −$1,005
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable loss: −$91
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$22
• After-tax cash flow: $1,740/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warroad Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2741850
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,106
• Composite: 40.59/100
• National rank: #3697
• State rank: #153 of 301 in MN

Livability — Chilgren

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 608

Population outlook (Lake of the Woods County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,706 people
• By 2030: 3,565 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 3,224 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 2,957 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 2,685 · -27.5%
• By 2100: 2,544 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Lithuanian 7% Scottish 5%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake of the Woods

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.8% · R 72.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.9pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+42.9 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+20.1 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.96%
• Current HPI: 146.8293
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $109,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-01 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Listed $119,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $738 · -2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.