109 Laurel Blvd · Forked River, NJ 08734

$549,990

6 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,136 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1956 0.34 ac lot $257/sqft · 12% below area Est $728k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to coastal living in desirable Lanoka Harbor! This expansive 5/6-bedroom, home offers a unique, thoughtfully designed living space on a generous lot. Enjoy bright, open interiors with a newer HVAC system, newer hot water heater, new flooring, and updated lighting throughout. The well-appointed kitchen features granite countertops and recessed lighting, flowing seamlessly into spacious living and dining areas anchored by a single fireplace. Step outside to a massive oversized deck overlooking an expansive backyard--ideal for entertaining or relaxing. Conveniently located near marinas, beaches, parks, and commuter routes.

Key facts

• Unique living space
• New flooring
• New hot water heater

Tags

• UNIQUE LIVING SPACE
• NEWER HVAC SYSTEM
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• NEW FLOORING
• UPDATED LIGHTING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (no garage spaces specified)
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms; Includes a loft
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Multi-zone cooling (2- and 3+ zone options); Heating present
• Interior features: Two fireplaces; Crawl space basement; Low-e window coating
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-936 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $385k (30.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $350k (36.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $350k (36.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.2% in Forked River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#464 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lacey Township School District (suburban): math 22% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #299 of 472 in NJ (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 57 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($542k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $124k; list at $550k implies a 344% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $350,000 (36.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.30%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 13.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $727,599
• List price: $549,990
• Delta: -23.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
30 South St	0.42mi	5/2.0 (-1)	2,075 (-3%)	12mo	$455,000	$219	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.03×
• Total profit: $-148,770
• Equity at exit: $82,005

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-206,375
• Equity at exit: $47,553

Cash invested: $153,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08734

• Active inventory: 57
• Price-to-rent: 13.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$588 /mo · $7,056/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$735
• Net cashflow: $-936

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,685

Max offer price $384,572

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-625	-5% $-781	+0% $-936	+5% $-1,092	+10% $-1,248
Rent	-10% $-1,213	-5% $-1,075	+0% $-936	+5% $-798	+10% $-660
Rate	-1.0pp $-659	-0.5pp $-797	base $-936	+0.5pp $-1,079	+1.0pp $-1,224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,498
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
605 Farrelly Ave Bayville, NJ	5.0	3.0	2274	$3,500	$1.54	44d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $549,990 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $549,990 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $549,990 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $549,990 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $549,990 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $549,990 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $549,990 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $549,990 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $549,990 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on marketlisting id $549,990 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-04-21
    listed $559,990 Active 635-char remark
12. 2026-02-22
    listed $529,990 Active
13. 2026-02-04
    price $549,990
14. 2026-01-15
    price $559,990
15. 2026-01-09
    listed $574,990 Active
16. 2014-09-17
    historical
17. 2014-01-15
    historical
18. 2014-01-15
    listed $220,000
19. 2014-01-15
    listed $220,000
20. 2013-06-11
    listed $225,000
21. 2013-06-11
    listed $225,000
22. 2012-04-24
    listed $235,000
23. 2011-09-24
    listed $248,000
24. 1993-05-11
    soldstatus $124,000
25. 1984-01-04
    soldstatus $16,530

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,056 · $588/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $10,376 · $865/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,319/yr (+$277/mo · 47.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,808
• − Property taxes: −$7,056
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,360
• − Management: −$3,360
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$21,334
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,120
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lacey Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408100
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $73,331
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6242
• State rank: #299 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Forked River

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #464
• US rank: #17753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,028

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Subsaharan African 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -225.83%
• Current HPI: 368.8557
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+3227.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $549,990 MOMLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $559,990 MOMLS
• 2026-02-22 Listed $529,990 MOMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $549,990 MOMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $559,990 MOMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $574,990 MOMLS
• 2014-09-17 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-01-15 Listed $220,000 MOMLS
• 2014-01-15 Listed $220,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-01-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2013-06-11 Listed $225,000 MOMLS
• 2013-06-11 Listed $225,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2012-04-24 Listed $235,000 MOMLS
• 2011-09-24 Listed $248,000 MOMLS
• 1993-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $124,000 Public Records
• 1984-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $16,530 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,056 · +7.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.