Is Allegrini Plan in McAllen, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 4.9% cap rate and $-333/mo modeled cash flow at a $267,990 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for Allegrini Plan?

The modeled cap rate is 4.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,141/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 33.4

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +7.7/30.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.8/5.0
Rent growth +3.1/5.0
Schools +3.1/10.0
1% rule +2.3/10.0
DSCR +1.8/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$267,990

Allegrini Plan · McAllen, TX 78504

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,412 sqft · SingleFamily · 185 Days on market

Good condition

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

The two-story Allegrini, part of our Villas Collection, has 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms. This floor plan is a great size for families who want to stay connected. With a smart layout and modern style, it offers both comfort and function for everyday living. A welcoming entryway on the first floor leads to an open-concept layout with the family room, dining area, and the heart of the home-the kitchen. A covered patio gives you extra space to enjoy the outdoors. There's also a powder room and a 2-car garage for added storage and convenience. Upstairs, all bedrooms are located together, making it ideal for families who want to stay close. The private primary suite has a large walk-in closet and a full bathroom with two sinks and a walk-in shower. Two more bedrooms share a full bathroom, and the laundry area is close by for easy access. * Window treatments and washer and dryer shown in photos and virtual tours are for staging purposes only and are not included with the home.

Key facts

Covered patio
Walk-in shower
Large walk-in closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $268k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-333 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $245k (8.7% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (20.1% below list).
Recommended offer: $214k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.9% in McAllen — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

Location reads 76/100 on livability (#119 in TX, #3,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Edinburg CISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #699 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Anne L Magee El (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 450 students, 78% FRL); Elias Longoria Sr Middle (math 16% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,236 of 1,662 statewide, top 76%, 804 students, 82% FRL); Robert R Vela H S (math 27% / reading 48%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,189 students, 62% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 1064 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($82k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $214,137 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.73% ✗
Cap rate: 4.93%
Cash-on-cash: -4.88%
DSCR: 0.78
GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $293,023
List price: $267,990
Delta: -8.54%
Verdict: FAIR
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6320 Cascada Bend Rd	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,641 (+16%)	9mo	$304,000	$185	59
14411 Chalk Ridge Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+10%)	21mo	$298,500	$191	57
14324 Chalk Ridge Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,674 (+19%)	11mo	$310,000	$185	51
14017 Boykin Creek Rd	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,687 (+20%)	13mo	$306,990	$182	48
14205 Chalk Ridge Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,629 (+15%)	14mo	$282,990	$174	42
14222 Chalk Ridge Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,687 (+20%)	13mo	$295,000	$175	41
14208 Big Creek Rd	0.81mi	3/2.5	1,598 (+13%)	3mo	$305,900	$191	40
5229 Escondido Pass	0.91mi	3/2.0	1,587 (+12%)	13mo	$299,500	$189	32
5401 Escondido Pass	0.81mi	3/2.5	1,602 (+14%)	16mo	$299,000	$187	29
5417 Escondido Pass	0.77mi	3/2.0	1,651 (+17%)	18mo	$279,000	$169	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -25.0%
Equity multiple: 0.15×
Total profit: $-69,603
Equity at exit: $43,691

10-year hold

IRR: -22.3%
Equity multiple: -0.12×
Total profit: $-91,568
Equity at exit: $25,335

Cash invested: $82,046 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 22 active · 2 under contract
Months of supply: 66.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $279,995 ($188/sqft)
Median days on market: 85 d
This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +10.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78504

Home prices YoY: -29.4%
Rents YoY: 2.6%
Active inventory: 1064
Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,141 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,537
Tax est. 1.5%: −$366 /mo · $4,395/yr
Insurance: −$122
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
Net cashflow: $-333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,563

Max offer price $244,789

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-131	-5% $-232	+0% $-333	+5% $-435	+10% $-536
Rent	-10% $-503	-5% $-418	+0% $-333	+5% $-249	+10% $-164
Rate	-1.0pp $-186	-0.5pp $-259	base $-333	+0.5pp $-409	+1.0pp $-487

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $73,256
Closing costs: $8,791
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6336 Cascada Bend Rd McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1729	$2,050	$1.19	15d	1	0.13mi
14337 Chalk Ridge Dr McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1696	$2,000	$1.18	16d	1	0.18mi
14333 Chalk Ridge Dr McAllen, TX	4.0	2.0	1611	$2,100	$1.30	15d	1	0.19mi
14333 Chalk Ridge Dr McAllen, TX	4.0	2.0	1611	$2,200	$1.37	93d	1	0.19mi
14208 Boykin Creek Rd McAllen, TX	4.0	2.5	1644	$2,100	$1.28	93d	1	0.31mi
14219 Chalk Ridge Dr McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1630	$2,800	$1.72	93d	1	0.34mi
14013 Boykin Creek Rd McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1725	$2,500	$1.45	16d	1	0.38mi
13929 Westcave Falls Ln Edinburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1506	$2,300	$1.53	63d	1	0.48mi
13721 Belle Ct Edinburg, TX	4.0	3.0	1698	$2,300	$1.35	15d	1	0.52mi
14301 N Shary Rd McAllen, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1689	$2,080	$1.23	63d	9	0.60mi
14201 Mountain Ridge Ln McAllen, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1730	$2,080	$1.20	15d	20	0.61mi
5716 River Rd McAllen, TX	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,100	$1.26	16d	1	0.65mi
14612 Kurth Cv McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1688	$2,000	$1.18	16d	1	0.87mi
5261 Lost Creek Ln McAllen, TX	3.0	2.0	1824	$2,000	$1.10	16d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $267,990 Active 185 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $267,990 Active 183 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $267,990 Active 182 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $267,990 Active 181 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $267,990 Active 180 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $267,990 Active 177 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $267,990 Active 175 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $267,990 Active 173 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $267,990 Active 171 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $267,990 Active 170 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $267,990 Active 169 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $267,990 Active 168 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $267,990 Active 167 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $267,990 Active 164 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $267,990 Active 162 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $267,990 Active 161 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $267,990 Active 160 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $267,990 Active 159 DOM
2026-07-12

days on market $267,990 Active 158 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $267,990 Active 157 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $267,990 Active 156 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $267,990 Active 155 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $267,990 Active 153 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $267,990 Active 152 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $267,990 Active 151 DOM
2026-07-04

days on market $267,990 Active 150 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $267,990 Active 149 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $267,990 Active 148 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $267,990 Active 147 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $267,990 Active 146 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $267,990 Active 145 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $267,990 Active 144 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $267,990 Active 143 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $267,990 Active 142 DOM
2026-06-23

days on market $267,990 Active 138 DOM
2026-06-21

days on market $267,990 Active 137 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $267,990 Active 134 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $267,990 Active 133 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $267,990 Active 132 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $267,990 Active 131 DOM
2026-06-14

days on market $267,990 Active 129 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $267,990 Active 128 DOM
2026-06-10

days on market $267,990 Active 126 DOM
2026-06-08

days on market $267,990 Active 124 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $267,990 Active 123 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $267,990 Active 119 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $267,990 Active 118 DOM
2026-06-01

days on market $267,990 Active 117 DOM
2026-05-31

days on market $267,990 Active 116 DOM
2026-05-31

days on market $267,990 Active 115 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $25,696
− Mortgage interest: −$16,414
− Property taxes: −$4,395
− Insurance: −$1,465
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,056
− Management: −$2,056
− Depreciation: −$8,524
Taxable loss: −$9,214

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,211
After-tax cash flow: $-1,789/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This two-story home in McAllen, TX, is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
Both New lighting fixtures — Enhances interior aesthetics and safety ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Anne L Magee El F TX #2,525/4,322 Nat'l #26,716/41,679 Middle Elias Longoria Sr Middle F TX #1,236/1,662 Nat'l #10,204/14,009 High Robert R Vela H S F TX #888/1,632 Nat'l #8,937/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Edinburg CISD
NCES district ID: 4818180
Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -34.00%
Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
Median HH income: $36,985
Composite: 22.42/100
National rank: #8114
State rank: #699 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — McAllen

Score: 76/100
State rank: #119
US rank: #3771

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: McAllen, TX
County: Hidalgo County · 955,232 people
City population: 144,650
Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
Population (ZIP): 63,094
Household income: $81,905
Rent vs Own: 30.1% rent · 69.9% own
Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 955,232 people
By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 39% White 11% Asian 5%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 62% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -80.87%
Current HPI: 194.1764
Rent YoY: ▲ 2.57%
Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-02-04 Listed $267,990 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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