628 Savage St S · Baltimore, MD 21224

$199,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,338 sqft · Townhouse public records · 121 Days on market

Built 1925 1,307 sqft lot Est $289k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don’t miss out on the substantial/Huge reduction on this GEM full of charming original details still in tact! The perfect turn key investment property or your first sweet home awaits you!!!! Welcome Home to 628 Savage St! This Craftsman charmer blends historic charm with modern updates. Step onto the quintessential Baltimore covered front porch with original stained glass house numbers transom and enter the sun-drenched living room and adjoining dining room with gleaming hardwoods with stunning mahogany banding! The generous, updated kitchen features stainless steel appliances and ample cabinets, leading to a covered rear porch and 2 car parking pad. Enjoy true Craftsman details thr

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Hvac age
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• COVERED REAR PORCH
• MEDIA FAMILY ROOM
• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• HVAC AGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $535 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 391 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 33y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $162k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.46%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $289,008
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
615 Ponca St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,386 (+4%)	1mo	$300,000	$216	85
628 Savage St S	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,482 (+11%)	0mo	$190,000	$128	80
737 S Macon St	0.24mi	3/3.0	1,376 (+3%)	1mo	$335,000	$243	77
432 Bonsal St	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,364 (+2%)	2mo	$174,000	$128	75
813 Fagley St	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,260 (-6%)	2mo	$280,000	$222	59
606 S Lehigh St	0.32mi	3/3.0	1,495 (+12%)	1mo	$270,000	$181	59
3820 Hudson St	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,316 (-2%)	1mo	$298,900	$227	58
966 S Macon St S	0.38mi	3/3.0	1,504 (+12%)	2mo	$364,900	$243	54
348 Elrino St	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,460 (+9%)	2mo	$210,000	$144	50
808 S Eaton St	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+11%)	1mo	$325,000	$218	40
402 S Eaton St	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,164 (-13%)	2mo	$186,000	$160	36
821 S Eaton St	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,532 (+14%)	2mo	$310,000	$202	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,391
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $25,707
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21224

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 391
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,451 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$270 /mo · $3,244/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $535

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,775

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
523 Rappolla St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,100	$1.27	23d	1	0.04mi
708 Umbra St Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1274	$2,000	$1.57	17d	1	0.11mi
560 Bayview Blvd Baltimore, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1108	$3,372	$3.04	2d	25	0.19mi
611 Oldham St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1148	$1,800	$1.57	12d	1	0.19mi
608 Oldham St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1640	$2,500	$1.52	23d	1	0.21mi
727 S Macon St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,450	$2.16	43d	1	0.25mi
410 S Newkirk St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1330	$1,580	$1.19	43d	1	0.28mi
527 S Lehigh St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,325	$1.76	43d	1	0.31mi
4505 Foster Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1376	$2,650	$1.93	23d	1	0.34mi
230 S Newkirk St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1600	$3,000	$1.88	17d	1	0.35mi
228 S Newkirk St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1620	$3,000	$1.85	43d	1	0.35mi
224 S Newkirk St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1600	$3,300	$2.06	20d	1	0.36mi
4500 Fait Ave Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.5	1792	$2,800	$1.56	43d	1	0.36mi
133 S Macon St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1440	$2,400	$1.67	17d	1	0.44mi
301 Cornwall St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1520	$2,900	$1.91	43d	1	0.50mi
301 Cornwall St Baltimore, MD	4.0	2.0	1520	$2,750	$1.81	10d	1	0.50mi
335 Drew St Unit 1 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1460	$1,600	$1.10	23d	1	0.52mi
1207 Anglesea St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1162	$2,150	$1.85	4d	1	0.54mi
442 Folcroft St Unit A Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1071	$1,600	$1.49	3d	1	0.55mi
434 Folcroft St Unit A Baltimore, MD	3.0	1.5	1260	$1,500	$1.19	43d	1	0.55mi
502 S Haven St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1440	$2,400	$1.67	16d	1	0.57mi
502 S Haven St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.5	1440	$2,400	$1.67	23d	1	0.57mi
4015 Eastern Ave Unit 2L Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	43d	1	0.58mi
328 Folcroft St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1460	$2,300	$1.58	23d	1	0.59mi
611 Grundy St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1434	$2,700	$1.88	23d	1	0.60mi
340 Gusryan St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,500	$1.92	43d	1	0.63mi
338 Gusryan St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.5	1218	$1,700	$1.40	23d	1	0.63mi
3905 Bank St Baltimore, MD	4.0	1.0–3.0	909	$2,820	$3.10	2d	20	0.65mi
416 Hornel St Unit 2 Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0	1470	$1,400	$0.95	23d	1	0.65mi
3850 Boston St Baltimore, MD	2.0	1.0–2.0	854	$3,378	$3.96	2d	22	0.68mi
1211 S Eaton St Unit 3035 Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.0	1545	$3,900	$2.52	23d	1	0.76mi
115 S Eaton St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1393	$1,800	$1.29	16d	1	0.80mi
3610 Dillon St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	828	$2,820	$3.41	43d	1	0.82mi
334 Kane St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,675	$1.60	23d	1	0.82mi
3710 E Pratt St Baltimore, MD	2.0	3.5	1230	$1,900	$1.54	23d	1	0.83mi
3700 Toone St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$3,218	$2.94	1d	28	0.85mi
1504 Elrino St Baltimore, MD	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,650	$1.57	4d	1	0.87mi
939 S Baylis St Baltimore, MD	3.0	3.0	1606	$3,500	$2.18	17d	1	0.89mi
3518 Elliott St Baltimore, MD	3.0	2.5	1036	$2,800	$2.70	17d	1	0.92mi
1200 S Conkling St Baltimore, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1085	$2,933	$2.70	1d	16	0.93mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   price $199,900
3. 2026-03-08
   price $219,000
4. 2026-02-14
   price $234,000
5. 2025-12-09
   listed $239,000 Active
6. 2007-09-10
   soldstatus $162,000
7. 1999-06-10
   soldstatus $52,500
8. 1994-06-30
   historical
9. 1993-12-30
   listed

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,244 · $270/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,244 · $270/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$3,244
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,353
• − Management: −$2,353
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $3,453
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$829
• After-tax cash flow: $5,587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 47,465
• Household income: $89,017
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1786.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 16% Two or more races 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -332.23%
• Current HPI: 241.284
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.31%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+280.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $199,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $219,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $234,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $239,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $162,000 Public Records
• 1999-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $52,500 Public Records
• 1994-06-30 Delisted — MRIS
• 1993-12-30 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,244 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.