10158 Newminster Loop · Apollo Beach, FL 33573

$325,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,823 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 135 Days on market

Built 2016 4,600 sqft lot $13/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Appreciation +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Short Sale. Short sale opportunity in the desirable Belmont community! This home features a beautiful open floor plan with the kitchen overlooking the living area, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A cozy den is located just off the living room, offering flexible space for an office or sitting area. Upstairs you’ll find a nice-sized loft and additional living space. The home needs minor repairs, making it a great opportunity to add your personal touches. Belmont offers low CDD and HOA fees and is conveniently located near I-75 and US Hwy 301 for easy commuting, shopping, and dining.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Cozy den
• Low cdd and hoa fees

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• COZY DEN
• NICE-SIZED LOFT
• LOW CDD AND HOA FEES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (12.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $273k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#333 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belmont Elementary School (math 42% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 987 students, 44% FRL); East Bay High School (math 24% / reading 35%, grade F, #447 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 1,995 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools at 47% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hillsborough average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 605 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,732/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($73k/yr) (locally 1382% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $261k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $273,174 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.91%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-67,538
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.12×
• Total profit: $-80,294
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33573

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 605
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,732 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$526 /mo · $6,309/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,011

Max offer price $286,065

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-36	-5% $-128	+0% $-220	+5% $-312	+10% $-404
Rent	-10% $-436	-5% $-328	+0% $-220	+5% $-113	+10% $-5
Rate	-1.0pp $-57	-0.5pp $-138	base $-220	+0.5pp $-305	+1.0pp $-390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10220 Newminster Loop Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2483	$2,315	$0.93	16d	1	0.07mi
10279 Newminster Loop Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2576	$2,395	$0.93	26d	1	0.14mi
14435 Barley Field Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$2,231	$1.09	15d	1	0.47mi
14437 Barley Field Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	2280	$2,296	$1.01	26d	1	0.47mi
9924 Victory Gallop Loop Ruskin, FL	4.0	2.5	2535	$2,656	$1.05	23d	1	0.48mi
10125 Count Fleet Dr Ruskin, FL	4.0	3.0	2529	$2,850	$1.13	14d	1	0.49mi
10114 Point Given Ct Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,327	$1.08	26d	1	0.57mi
10018 Sage Creek Dr Sun City Center, FL	4.0	2.0	2598	$2,611	$1.01	26d	1	0.70mi
10638 Aldo Moro Dr Wimauma, FL	4.0	2.5	2803	$2,800	$1.00	26d	1	0.82mi
9648 Sage Creek Dr Sun City Center, FL	6.0	3.0	3153	$3,000	$0.95	19d	1	0.97mi
10614 Shady Branch Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2482	$2,286	$0.92	15d	1	0.99mi
14153 Arbor Pines Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	2.5	2889	$3,586	$1.24	26d	1	1.28mi
11201 Hudson Hills Ln Riverview, FL	5.0	2.5	2254	$2,450	$1.09	16d	1	1.34mi
11167 Leland Groves Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2526	$3,500	$1.39	26d	1	1.39mi
11176 Leland Groves Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2318	$2,700	$1.16	6d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 132 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 129 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $325,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 114 DOM
16. 2026-02-06
    listed $325,000 Active 607-char remark

    Show marketing remark (607 chars)

    Short Sale. Short sale opportunity in the desirable Belmont community! This home features a beautiful open floor plan with the kitchen overlooking the living area, perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A cozy den is located just off the living room, offering flexible space for an office or sitting area. Upstairs you’ll find a nice-sized loft and additional living space. The home needs minor repairs, making it a great opportunity to add your personal touches. Belmont offers low CDD and HOA fees and is conveniently located near I-75 and US Hwy 301 for easy commuting, shopping, and dining.

17. 2016-11-11
    soldstatus $261,490 Sold 1386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1386 chars)

    Under Construction - NOT A SHORT SALE!! New Construction-Completion November 2016! The New Hampshire floor plan is 2775sq ft. 4 bedroom plus loft plus den 2.5bath, 2 car garage home. Walk in to a small foyer, then it opens up to a beautiful open floor plan with a kitchen over looking the family area. Nice size study off of the main living area. Upstairs Master bedroom is a large master suite with 1 huge walk in closet and a nice size master bath with double sinks with granite. Upstairs has a very Nice size loft area with 3 additional bedrooms and 2 full baths. 2775sqft of real living space!! This home has it all…. Granite, ceiling fans, garage door opener, GE stainless kitchen appliances, appliances included…even washer/dryer, Blinds, this home will be move in ready end of November……plus $11,000 towards closing cost! Brand new everything…plus a WARRANTY!! This home has one of the highest energy rating…. .Electric bill approximately $80 a month. This community is USDA eligible…. $1,000 down moves you in (per approval). A must see to appreciate the value of having a 5bedroom and 3.5 bath home. This home is convenient to 75 and US 301, great location!! Great location to go downtown, the beaches, military base, Brandon and even Tampa!! Great schools!! RED TAG HOME – Special financing as low as 2.99%.

18. 2016-10-13
    status Pending 1386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1386 chars)

    Under Construction - NOT A SHORT SALE!! New Construction-Completion November 2016! The New Hampshire floor plan is 2775sq ft. 4 bedroom plus loft plus den 2.5bath, 2 car garage home. Walk in to a small foyer, then it opens up to a beautiful open floor plan with a kitchen over looking the family area. Nice size study off of the main living area. Upstairs Master bedroom is a large master suite with 1 huge walk in closet and a nice size master bath with double sinks with granite. Upstairs has a very Nice size loft area with 3 additional bedrooms and 2 full baths. 2775sqft of real living space!! This home has it all…. Granite, ceiling fans, garage door opener, GE stainless kitchen appliances, appliances included…even washer/dryer, Blinds, this home will be move in ready end of November……plus $11,000 towards closing cost! Brand new everything…plus a WARRANTY!! This home has one of the highest energy rating…. .Electric bill approximately $80 a month. This community is USDA eligible…. $1,000 down moves you in (per approval). A must see to appreciate the value of having a 5bedroom and 3.5 bath home. This home is convenient to 75 and US 301, great location!! Great location to go downtown, the beaches, military base, Brandon and even Tampa!! Great schools!! RED TAG HOME – Special financing as low as 2.99%.

19. 2016-09-20
    listed $261,490 Active 1386-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1386 chars)

    Under Construction - NOT A SHORT SALE!! New Construction-Completion November 2016! The New Hampshire floor plan is 2775sq ft. 4 bedroom plus loft plus den 2.5bath, 2 car garage home. Walk in to a small foyer, then it opens up to a beautiful open floor plan with a kitchen over looking the family area. Nice size study off of the main living area. Upstairs Master bedroom is a large master suite with 1 huge walk in closet and a nice size master bath with double sinks with granite. Upstairs has a very Nice size loft area with 3 additional bedrooms and 2 full baths. 2775sqft of real living space!! This home has it all…. Granite, ceiling fans, garage door opener, GE stainless kitchen appliances, appliances included…even washer/dryer, Blinds, this home will be move in ready end of November……plus $11,000 towards closing cost! Brand new everything…plus a WARRANTY!! This home has one of the highest energy rating…. .Electric bill approximately $80 a month. This community is USDA eligible…. $1,000 down moves you in (per approval). A must see to appreciate the value of having a 5bedroom and 3.5 bath home. This home is convenient to 75 and US 301, great location!! Great location to go downtown, the beaches, military base, Brandon and even Tampa!! Great schools!! RED TAG HOME – Special financing as low as 2.99%.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,309 · $526/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,309 · $526/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$6,309
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,622
• − Management: −$2,622
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$8,213
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,971
• After-tax cash flow: $-674/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Apollo Beach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #5784

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apollo Beach, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 35,362
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,362
• Household income: $72,834
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1382.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.27%
• Current HPI: 272.9767
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.65%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+24.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Listed $325,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-11 Sold (MLS) $261,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-20 Listed $261,490 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,309 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.