413 Adam St · Tonawanda, NY 14150

$269,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,936 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1902 4,356 sqft lot $139/sqft · 50% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, location, location best describes the setting for this charming 3 bedroom, 1900 sq. ft. Dutch Colonial on a super-sized lot with a view of the river. This home features a spacious bright living room, formal dining room, family room addition with cathedral ceiling, 1.5 baths, fully applianced oak kitchen along with some hardwood floors. This home has been cherished by the same family for over 65 years. You'll appreciate the convenient walk to the river, parks and shopping. Please note 413 & 409 Adam will be merged thus creating a 99x132 lot.

Key facts

• Open-floor plan
• River view
• Cathedral ceilings

Tags

• RIVER VIEW
• OPEN-FLOOR PLAN
• MASSIVE DOUBLE LOT
• GLEAMING HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• TONS OF OAK CABINETS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story house; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (second floor); Bedroom 2 (second floor); Bedroom 3 (second floor)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; Main-level bathroom present
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Baseboard heating; Hot water heating
• Interior features: Separate formal dining room; Separate formal living room; Kitchen/family room combo; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $139 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 89/100 on livability (#8 in NY, #169 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+.
• Tonawanda City School District (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #508 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 191 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $220k; 23% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1902 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $219,625 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1902 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.21%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $541,187
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: -50.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.75% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-26,415
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.34×
• Total profit: $25,982
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14150

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $818/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,020

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
86 Scott St Tonawanda, NY	2.0	1.0	1584	$1,450	$0.92	2d	1	1.03mi
203 Highland Ave Tonawanda, NY	3.0	1.0	2288	$1,800	$0.79	3d	1	1.11mi
46 Eagleview Dr Grand Island, NY	4.0	2.5	2472	$4,200	$1.70	2d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-11
   listed $269,900 Active 894-char remark
2. 2023-08-04
   soldstatus $220,000
3. 2016-10-24
   soldstatus $128,000 Closed Sale or Rented 562-char remark

   Show marketing remark (562 chars)

   Location, location, location best describes the setting for this charming 3 bedroom, 1900 sq. ft. Dutch Colonial on a super-sized lot with a view of the river. This home features a spacious bright living room, formal dining room, family room addition with cathedral ceiling, 1.5 baths, fully applianced oak kitchen along with some hardwood floors. This home has been cherished by the same family for over 65 years. You'll appreciate the convenient walk to the river, parks and shopping. Please note 413 & 409 Adam will be merged thus creating a 99x132 lot.

4. 2016-10-19
   soldstatus $128,000
5. 2016-09-29
   status Pending Sale 562-char remark

   Show marketing remark (562 chars)

   Location, location, location best describes the setting for this charming 3 bedroom, 1900 sq. ft. Dutch Colonial on a super-sized lot with a view of the river. This home features a spacious bright living room, formal dining room, family room addition with cathedral ceiling, 1.5 baths, fully applianced oak kitchen along with some hardwood floors. This home has been cherished by the same family for over 65 years. You'll appreciate the convenient walk to the river, parks and shopping. Please note 413 & 409 Adam will be merged thus creating a 99x132 lot.

6. 2016-08-07
   price $139,900 562-char remark

   Show marketing remark (562 chars)

   Location, location, location best describes the setting for this charming 3 bedroom, 1900 sq. ft. Dutch Colonial on a super-sized lot with a view of the river. This home features a spacious bright living room, formal dining room, family room addition with cathedral ceiling, 1.5 baths, fully applianced oak kitchen along with some hardwood floors. This home has been cherished by the same family for over 65 years. You'll appreciate the convenient walk to the river, parks and shopping. Please note 413 & 409 Adam will be merged thus creating a 99x132 lot.

7. 2016-07-07
   listed $149,900 Active 562-char remark

   Show marketing remark (562 chars)

   Location, location, location best describes the setting for this charming 3 bedroom, 1900 sq. ft. Dutch Colonial on a super-sized lot with a view of the river. This home features a spacious bright living room, formal dining room, family room addition with cathedral ceiling, 1.5 baths, fully applianced oak kitchen along with some hardwood floors. This home has been cherished by the same family for over 65 years. You'll appreciate the convenient walk to the river, parks and shopping. Please note 413 & 409 Adam will be merged thus creating a 99x132 lot.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $818 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,690 · $224/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,872/yr (+$156/mo · 228.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,355
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$818
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,108
• − Management: −$2,108
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$3,000
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$720
• After-tax cash flow: $2,388/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tonawanda City School District
• NCES district ID: 3628740
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,061
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5041
• State rank: #508 of 590 in NY

Livability — Tonawanda

• Score: 89/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #169

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tonawanda, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 41,260
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 41,260
• Household income: $71,406
• Rent vs Own: 27.9% rent · 72.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1427.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Philippines, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.43%
• Current HPI: 334.5893
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.75%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+80.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $269,900 WNYREIS
• 2023-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2016-10-24 Sold (MLS) $128,000 WNYREIS
• 2016-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records
• 2016-09-29 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2016-08-07 Price Changed $139,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-07-07 Listed $149,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+15.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $818 · -73.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.