14111 Sanctuary Trails Dr · Gulfport, MS 39503

$248,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,384 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2022 8,276 sqft lot $180/sqft · at area comps Est $249k · at est. $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**OPEN HOUSE TODAY**!! **PLEASE JOIN us FRIDAY Apr 24th from 2:00-4:00.** One look at this stunning home that has been meticulously maintained and with so many after build upgrades and you will know you are home! Upgraded pendant lighting throughout several rooms, backsplash in kitchen, upgraded drawer pulls throughout kit and bath, and thats just to name a few! The owners have put so many special touches in this home and it shows in the details. Cozy back porch and over sized yard with privacy fencing for those much needed outdoor times. New paved walking path that is just being completed for those quite walks. The location makes it an easy access to so much that our beautiful Gulf Coast offers. Call today for your private viewing.

Key facts

• Easy access
• Oversized yard
• Privacy fencing

Tags

• BACK PORCH
• OVERSIZED YARD
• PRIVACY FENCING
• EASY ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-557/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (3.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.9% in Gulfport — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 770 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 78% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,875 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.80%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,856
• List price: $248,900
• Delta: 0.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14111 Sanctuary Trails Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,388 (+0%)	0mo	$248,900	$179	95
14116 Sanctuary Trails Dr	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,398 (+1%)	4mo	$227,900	$163	90
14037 Sanctuary Trails Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-3%)	3mo	$249,900	$185	86
14134 Debra Barbee Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,490 (+8%)	3mo	$247,999	$166	70
13730 Churchwood Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,328 (-4%)	6mo	$219,900	$166	65
13691 Lawton Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-12%)	1mo	$205,000	$168	58
13276 Tortoise Trl	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,312 (-5%)	2mo	$222,000	$169	57
13292 Turtle Creek Pkwy	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,312 (-5%)	4mo	$223,000	$170	57
13727 Churchwood Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,237 (-11%)	4mo	$219,900	$178	57
13637 Lawton Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,176 (-15%)	2mo	$199,000	$169	55
13454 Addison Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-6%)	6mo	$189,999	$146	54
13395 Libby Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,268 (-8%)	4mo	$198,000	$156	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-35,580
• Equity at exit: $37,112

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-402
• Equity at exit: $21,520

Cash invested: $69,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 770
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,869 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,305
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$392
• Net cashflow: $-46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,928

Max offer price $240,697

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $24	+0% $-46	+5% $-117	+10% $-187
Rent	-10% $-194	-5% $-120	+0% $-46	+5% $27	+10% $101
Rate	-1.0pp $79	-0.5pp $17	base $-46	+0.5pp $-111	+1.0pp $-177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,225
• Closing costs: $7,467
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14179 Debra Barbee Ct Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,849	$1.34	23d	1	0.13mi
13469 Mary Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,800	$1.15	45d	1	0.48mi
13463 Mary Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1565	$1,775	$1.13	45d	1	0.49mi
13498 Dee Ave Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,750	$1.24	45d	1	0.66mi
13459 Gorman St Gulfport, MS	2.0	1.5	1000	$1,649	$1.65	45d	1	0.69mi
13444 Willow Oak Cir Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.5	1679	$1,750	$1.04	45d	1	0.71mi
13145 Turtle Creek Pkwy Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.5	1679	$1,795	$1.07	45d	1	0.87mi
13727 Fox Hill Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1388	$1,800	$1.30	45d	1	1.23mi
13070 Tracewood Dr Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1190	$1,400	$1.18	23d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-09
   status Pending 753-char remark

   Show marketing remark (753 chars)

   **OPEN HOUSE TODAY**!! **PLEASE JOIN us FRIDAY Apr 24th from 2:00-4:00.** One look at this stunning home that has been meticulously maintained and with so many after build upgrades and you will know you are home! Upgraded pendant lighting throughout several rooms, backsplash in kitchen, upgraded drawer pulls throughout kit and bath, and thats just to name a few! The owners have put so many special touches in this home and it shows in the details. Cozy back porch and over sized yard with privacy fencing for those much needed outdoor times. New paved walking path that is just being completed for those quite walks. The location makes it an easy access to so much that our beautiful Gulf Coast offers. Call today for your private viewing.

2. 2026-03-25
   listed $248,900 Active 753-char remark

   Show marketing remark (753 chars)

   **OPEN HOUSE TODAY**!! **PLEASE JOIN us FRIDAY Apr 24th from 2:00-4:00.** One look at this stunning home that has been meticulously maintained and with so many after build upgrades and you will know you are home! Upgraded pendant lighting throughout several rooms, backsplash in kitchen, upgraded drawer pulls throughout kit and bath, and thats just to name a few! The owners have put so many special touches in this home and it shows in the details. Cozy back porch and over sized yard with privacy fencing for those much needed outdoor times. New paved walking path that is just being completed for those quite walks. The location makes it an easy access to so much that our beautiful Gulf Coast offers. Call today for your private viewing.

3. 2022-06-26
   historical
4. 2022-05-27
   status Active
5. 2022-03-28
   status Pending
6. 2022-03-16
   listed $244,650 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $825 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,966 · $164/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,141/yr (+$95/mo · 138.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,942
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$1,244
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,794
• − Management: −$1,794
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$7,241
• Taxable loss: −$4,956
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,189
• After-tax cash flow: $632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+1.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-03-25 Listed $248,900 MLSU
• 2022-06-26 Listing Removed — MLSU
• 2022-05-27 Relisted — MLSU
• 2022-03-28 Pending — MLSU
• 2022-03-16 Listed $244,650 MLSU

Property tax history

+51.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $825 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.