42 Redwing Dr · Santa Rosa, CA 95409

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 63 Days on market

Built 1990 Est $194k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Remodeled 3 bedroom 2 bathroom home in senior park in Rincon Valley. Fresh and bright and ready for you!. .. .Water is free and not metered in park. Wonderful updated park and facilities. Bonus to the Park is it has 3 entrances and exits

Key facts

• Updated park
• Remodeled home
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• REMODELED HOME
• UPDATED PARK
• 3 ENTRANCES AND EXITS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Rincon Valley Mobile Estates
• HOA & community: No association; Located in a senior community; Land lease: $800/month

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (double wide)
• Construction: Composition roof; Golden West manufactured home
• Exterior features: Carport awning; Covered deck; Carpeted patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with double sinks; shower stall(s) and tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled condition; Stone countertops
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry hookups only (washer/dryer hookups in a room)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $677 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $212k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.9% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 155 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($108k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.90%
• DSCR: 1.57
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,536
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
76 Cardinal Way	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-3%)	8mo	$220,000	$196	77
71 Oriole Way	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-8%)	8mo	$230,000	$218	72
48 Cardinal Way	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,288 (+12%)	10mo	$244,000	$189	64
187 Blue Jay Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,050 (-9%)	11mo	$176,000	$168	62
6 Larkspur Pl	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,200 (+4%)	2mo	$90,000	$75	62
111 Cardinal Way	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,000 (-13%)	0mo	$120,000	$120	61
170 Blue Jay Dr	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,037 (-10%)	11mo	$240,000	$231	60
94 Buckwood Pl	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-6%)	2mo	$119,000	$110	58
129 Redwing Dr	0.14mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,300 (+13%)	20mo	$148,000	$114	49
99 Buckwood Pl	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,060 (-8%)	16mo	$180,000	$170	43
162 Larkspur Dr	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+8%)	15mo	$100,000	$80	41
11 Larkspur Pl	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (+8%)	22mo	$122,500	$98	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $7,509
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.04×
• Total profit: $65,539
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95409

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,825 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $677

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,968

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $833	-5% $755	+0% $677	+5% $599	+10% $522
Rent	-10% $454	-5% $566	+0% $677	+5% $789	+10% $900
Rate	-1.0pp $790	-0.5pp $734	base $677	+0.5pp $619	+1.0pp $560

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4656 Quigg Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	950	$3,270	$3.44	15d	9	0.09mi
1201 Mission Blvd Unit 1255 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	970	$2,000	$2.06	15d	1	0.29mi
701 Mission Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,995	$2.35	22d	1	0.33mi
4145 Shadow Ln Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	825	$2,893	$3.51	14d	11	0.47mi
808 Shady Oak Dr Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,800	$2.55	15d	1	0.54mi
3732 Ahl Park Ct Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$2,796	$2.73	14d	7	0.73mi
174 S Boas Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	781	$2,755	$3.53	14d	6	0.78mi
6123 Montecito Blvd Unit rh6123Montecito14 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,150	$3.07	22d	1	0.79mi
3637 Sonoma Ave Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.5	1117	$2,599	$2.33	15d	3	0.81mi
6233 Montecito Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,195	$2.93	15d	1	0.83mi
695 Summerfield Rd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	719	$2,345	$3.26	14d	1	0.84mi
6221 Montecito Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$2,145	$2.86	15d	3	0.84mi
6263 Montecito Blvd Unit 05 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,650	$2.65	15d	1	0.90mi
6263 Montecito Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,650	$2.65	24d	1	0.91mi
42 Redwood Ct Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1166	$2,700	$2.32	15d	1	0.92mi
6401 Montecito Blvd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	835	$1,975	$2.37	15d	1	0.94mi
6600 Montecito Blvd Unit 02 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$2,450	$2.58	22d	1	0.97mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $225,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $225,000 Active 52 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $225,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    statusdays on market $225,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Contingent (Show) 45 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Contingent (Show) 44 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Contingent (Show) 43 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Contingent (Show) 42 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    statusdays on market $225,000 Contingent (Show) 41 DOM
18. 2026-04-18
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 21 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,905
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,712
• − Management: −$2,712
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $4,831
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,159
• After-tax cash flow: $6,966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Rosa, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 25,616
• Household income: $107,867
• Rent vs Own: 30.3% rent · 69.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 908.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -750.32%
• Current HPI: 226.8795
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $225,000 BAREIS