420 Main St W · Waterville, MN 56096

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,302 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1930 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Prepare to fall in love with this enchanting 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home that offers a perfect blend of charm and modern living. As you approach, the delightful front porch greets you, providing a cozy spot to enjoy your morning coffee as the sun rises or sip on evening cocktails while you unwind after a long day. The interior is filled with stunning woodwork that adds character and warmth, making the home even more inviting. You'll be captivated by the beautiful hardwood floors that run throughout, enhancing the elegance of the spaces. The high ceilings amplify the sense of openness, especially in the formal dining room, which is designed for memorable family gatherings and dinner parties.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1930

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One and one-half stories; Main entry on main level
• Construction: Unfinished basement with storage space; Foundation area approximately 728
• Exterior features: Front porch; Patio; Wood exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with window; Range; Refrigerator; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (two on upper level, one on main level); Bonus room on main level; Second bonus room on upper level
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on upper level; Half bathroom on main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Natural woodwork; Washer/dryer hookup; Walk-in closet; Separate/formal dining room; Porch; Patio
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Washer and dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($59/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (13.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#165 in MN, #3,581 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Waterville-Elysian-Morristown (rural): math 44% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #135 of 301 in MN (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 35 active listings in the ZIP; 60 units permitted in Le Sueur County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Le Sueur County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $160k implies a 199% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,140 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.13%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-25,585
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-21,820
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 56096

• Home prices YoY: -11.1%
• Active inventory: 35
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,391 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$189 /mo · $2,270/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$292
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,385

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $95	-5% $50	+0% $5	+5% $-40	+10% $-86
Rent	-10% $-105	-5% $-50	+0% $5	+5% $60	+10% $115
Rate	-1.0pp $85	-0.5pp $46	base $5	+0.5pp $-37	+1.0pp $-79

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,900 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $159,900 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    status Active
18. 2026-05-26
    historical
19. 2026-04-20
    listed $165,000
20. 1994-12-09
    soldstatus $53,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,270 · $189/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,270 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,270
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,336
• − Management: −$1,336
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$2,653
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$637
• After-tax cash flow: $695/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waterville-Elysian-Morristown
• NCES district ID: 2700013
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $56,686
• Composite: 41.74/100
• National rank: #3401
• State rank: #135 of 301 in MN

Livability — Waterville

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #3581

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waterville, MN
• Population (ZIP): 2,874

Population outlook (Le Sueur County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,622 people
• By 2030: 27,346 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 26,451 · -4.2%
• By 2050: 25,299 · -8.4%
• By 2075: 23,188 · -16.1%
• By 2100: 21,103 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Le Sueur

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.7) · D 32.4% · R 66.0% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.4pp toward R · 2008: -4.3pp · 2024: -33.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.7 2020: R+30.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+6.5 2008: R+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.07%
• Current HPI: 215.8898
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+208.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-26 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-20 Listed $165,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $53,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,270 · -14.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.