8500 E Gold Bullion Blvd · Fishhook, AK 99645

$159,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 4 Days on market

Built 1974 1.23 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Excellent opportunity for an affordable home on an over sized lot. Great location near Hatcher Pass, Government Peak Recreational Area, and lots of outdoor activities. Also quick to commute to Palmer or Wasilla. Mobile home has had some recent upgrades, perfect to live in while you build your dream house or stay there for affordable living. Owner Finance considered with large down.

Key facts

• 1.23 acre lot
• Built 1974
• Listed 4 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $702 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $159k).
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 2.8% in Fishhook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#112 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: John Shaw Elementary (math 62% / reading 47%, grade C, #31 of 156 statewide, top 26%, 533 students, 40% FRL); Palmer Middle School (math 25% / reading 42%, grade F, #24 of 36 statewide, top 69%, 594 students, 46% FRL); Colony High School (math 29% / reading 38%, grade F, #32 of 61 statewide, top 52%, 1,117 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 378 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $159,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.92%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $18,887
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $73,780
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99645

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 378
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,093 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $620/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,205

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $792	-5% $747	+0% $702	+5% $657	+10% $612
Rent	-10% $537	-5% $619	+0% $702	+5% $785	+10% $867
Rate	-1.0pp $782	-0.5pp $742	base $702	+0.5pp $661	+1.0pp $619

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7404 N Paw St Unit 2 Fishhook, AK	2.0	1.0	904	$2,195	$2.43	45d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-17
   listed $159,000 Active
3. 2001-09-24
   listed $64,900
4. 2001-06-27
   listed $59,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $620 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,256 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$636/yr (+$53/mo · 102.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$620
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,010
• − Management: −$2,010
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable income: $6,154
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,477
• After-tax cash flow: $6,947/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Fishhook

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #22030

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fishhook, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 32,103
• Household income: $100,455
• Rent vs Own: 19.8% rent · 80.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 539.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.20%
• Current HPI: 210.5448
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+165.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-04-17 Listed $159,000 AKMLS
• 2001-09-24 Listed $64,900 AKMLS
• 2001-06-27 Listed $59,900 AKMLS

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $620 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.