21345 Newcastle Rd · Harper Woods, MI 48225

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,092 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1951 5,227 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home features newer kitchen with granite counter tops. 2 full baths. Efficient furnace.

Key facts

• 5,227 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1951

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Natural gas connected; High-speed internet
• Home design: Cape Cod style; Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt roof; Built in 1951
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: Full basement; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Natural gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $47 ($562/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (10.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (10.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#199 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Harper Woods School District (suburban): math 4% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #524 of 540 in MI (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.1%/yr); 133 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 14 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $160k implies a 78% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $143,053 (10.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.26%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $86,268
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21211 Newcastle Rd	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,120 (+3%)	2mo	$135,000	$121	91
21628 Newcastle Rd	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,079 (-1%)	0mo	$173,500	$161	90
21553 Bournemouth St	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,079 (-1%)	4mo	$185,000	$171	88
21135 Littlestone Rd	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,119 (+2%)	1mo	$187,500	$168	82
19134 Mallina St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,032 (-6%)	2mo	$179,000	$173	77
18904 Mallina St	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,107 (+1%)	2mo	$85,575	$77	77
6301 Lodewyck St	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,084 (-1%)	4mo	$70,000	$65	68
20644 Mccormick St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+6%)	2mo	$91,000	$79	63
6135 Marseilles St	0.67mi	3/1.0	988 (-10%)	0mo	$55,000	$56	53
20244 Mccormick St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-8%)	1mo	$75,000	$75	52
20300 Mccormick St	0.65mi	3/1.0	940 (-14%)	1mo	$60,000	$64	46
20301 Kenosha St	0.61mi	3/1.0	949 (-13%)	5mo	$57,000	$60	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-19,834
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $-177
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48225

• Rents YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,431 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,137/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$300
• Net cashflow: $47

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,371

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21401 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	2.0	1.0	944	$1,200	$1.27	24d	1	0.18mi
19203 Edgefield St Harper Woods, MI	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	24d	1	0.25mi
19168 Berden St Grosse Pointe, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	1d	1	0.26mi
20926 Moross Rd Grosse Pointe, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,350	$1.12	43d	1	0.41mi
20461 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	4.0	1.0	1100	$1,399	$1.27	15d	1	0.57mi
6301 Lodewyck St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,300	$1.20	12d	1	0.59mi
19000 Chandler Park Dr Grosse Pointe, MI	2.0	1.0	1374	$2,300	$1.67	1d	1	0.61mi
19000 Chandler Park Dr Grosse Pointe, MI	2.0	1.0	1374	$2,300	$1.67	4d	1	0.61mi
22144 Moross Rd Grosse Pointe, MI	2.0	1.0	819	$1,350	$1.65	2d	1	0.61mi
22144 Moross Rd Grosse Pointe, MI	2.0	1.0	819	$1,350	$1.65	18d	1	0.61mi
22148 Moross Rd Grosse Pointe, MI	2.0	1.0	819	$1,250	$1.53	2d	1	0.62mi
22148 Moross Rd Grosse Pointe, MI	2.0	1.0	819	$1,250	$1.53	17d	1	0.62mi
17720 Chester St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	986	$1,250	$1.27	43d	1	0.63mi
17710 Chester St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	984	$1,250	$1.27	43d	1	0.64mi
6175 Marseilles St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	43d	1	0.66mi
5915 Farmbrook St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,250	$1.25	24d	1	0.68mi
10542 Lanark St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1023	$1,250	$1.22	43d	1	0.76mi
10870 Marne St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1156	$1,100	$0.95	17d	1	0.79mi
6325 Neff Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	2d	1	0.83mi
6181 Neff Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1102	$1,299	$1.18	18d	1	0.85mi
10985 Peerless St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,364	$1.36	5d	1	0.86mi
19982 McCormick St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	866	$1,200	$1.39	3d	1	0.87mi
6154 Woodhall St Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	1136	$1,000	$0.88	43d	1	0.89mi
5786 Neff Ave Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,225	$1.11	16d	1	0.94mi
6304 Bluehill St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1088	$1,500	$1.38	43d	1	0.97mi
5955 Guilford St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	802	$1,400	$1.75	17d	1	1.02mi
19661 Kenosha St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	24d	1	1.03mi
6225 Oldtown St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1330	$1,199	$0.90	17d	1	1.04mi
19639 Moross Rd Unit 1 Detroit, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	43d	1	1.08mi
10692 Meuse St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	955	$1,250	$1.31	12d	1	1.12mi
19442 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	17d	1	1.15mi
19435 McCormick St Detroit, MI	3.0	2.0	1148	$1,300	$1.13	17d	1	1.17mi
20015 Lochmoor St Harper Woods, MI	3.0	1.0	1006	$1,500	$1.49	16d	1	1.17mi
10370 Britain St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	43d	1	1.18mi
9313 Harvard Rd Detroit, MI	3.0	1.5	1329	$1,200	$0.90	17d	1	1.20mi
10400 Britain St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	890	$1,100	$1.24	43d	1	1.20mi
9241 Boleyn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,350	$1.00	43d	1	1.22mi
19365 Kingsville St Harper Woods, MI	4.0	1.5	996	$1,650	$1.66	15d	1	1.22mi
10177 Boleyn St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	767	$1,250	$1.63	43d	1	1.30mi
10037 Grayton St Detroit, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	3d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 45 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $159,900 Pending 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $159,900 Active - Contingent 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $159,900 Active - Contingent 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $159,900 Active - Contingent 53 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $159,900 Active - Contingent 52 DOM
6. 2026-05-12
   historical Active Under Contract 87-char remark

   Show marketing remark (87 chars)

   Home features newer kitchen with granite counter tops. 2 full baths. Efficient furnace.

7. 2026-05-12
   historical Keep Showing-Contgcy Appl 87-char remark

   Show marketing remark (87 chars)

   Home features newer kitchen with granite counter tops. 2 full baths. Efficient furnace.

8. 2026-05-12
   historical Active - Contingent

   Show marketing remark (87 chars)

   Home features newer kitchen with granite counter tops. 2 full baths. Efficient furnace.

9. 2026-04-30
   price $159,900 87-char remark

   Show marketing remark (87 chars)

   Home features newer kitchen with granite counter tops. 2 full baths. Efficient furnace.

10. 2026-04-29
    price $159,900 87-char remark

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Home features newer kitchen with granite counter tops. 2 full baths. Efficient furnace.

11. 2026-04-29
    price $159,900

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Home features newer kitchen with granite counter tops. 2 full baths. Efficient furnace.

12. 2026-04-18
    price $164,900 87-char remark

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Home features newer kitchen with granite counter tops. 2 full baths. Efficient furnace.

13. 2026-04-17
    price $164,900 87-char remark

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Home features newer kitchen with granite counter tops. 2 full baths. Efficient furnace.

14. 2026-04-17
    price $164,900

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Home features newer kitchen with granite counter tops. 2 full baths. Efficient furnace.

15. 2026-04-09
    listed $169,900 Active 87-char remark

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Home features newer kitchen with granite counter tops. 2 full baths. Efficient furnace.

16. 2026-04-09
    listed $169,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Home features newer kitchen with granite counter tops. 2 full baths. Efficient furnace.

17. 2026-04-09
    listed $169,900 Active 87-char remark

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Home features newer kitchen with granite counter tops. 2 full baths. Efficient furnace.

18. 2026-04-07
    historical $169,900 87-char remark

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Home features newer kitchen with granite counter tops. 2 full baths. Efficient furnace.

19. 2026-04-07
    historical $169,900

    Show marketing remark (87 chars)

    Home features newer kitchen with granite counter tops. 2 full baths. Efficient furnace.

20. 2018-01-30
    soldstatus $89,900
21. 2010-10-14
    soldstatus $41,000
22. 2010-10-12
    soldstatus $41,000
23. 2010-09-11
    historical
24. 2010-08-20
    listed $49,900
25. 2010-08-20
    listed $49,900
26. 2010-08-20
    historical
27. 2010-08-20
    historical
28. 2010-06-24
    listed $49,900
29. 2010-06-24
    listed $49,900
30. 2010-05-27
    historical
31. 2010-05-27
    historical
32. 2010-05-06
    listed $39,900
33. 2010-05-06
    listed $39,900
34. 2010-05-06
    historical
35. 2010-05-06
    historical
36. 2010-04-09
    soldstatus $27,000
37. 2010-04-09
    listed $42,900
38. 2010-04-09
    listed $42,900
39. 2010-03-23
    soldstatus $27,000
40. 2010-03-17
    listed $29,900
41. 2010-03-17
    listed $29,900
42. 2003-04-16
    soldstatus $113,000
43. 2003-02-18
    soldstatus $113,000
44. 2002-10-10
    historical
45. 2002-09-08
    listed $119,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,137 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,300 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: +$162/yr (+$14/mo · 7.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,137
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,373
• − Management: −$1,373
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$2,126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$510
• After-tax cash flow: $1,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harper Woods School District
• NCES district ID: 2617760
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $46,155
• Composite: 8.8/100
• National rank: #9892
• State rank: #524 of 540 in MI

Livability — Harper Woods

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #5054

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Harper Woods, MI
• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 16,098
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 16,098
• Household income: $61,750
• Rent vs Own: 33.8% rent · 66.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 410.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 65% White 28% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 1% German 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Arabic 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.40%
• Current HPI: 181.4961
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.10%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+33.4% since first listed

40 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-12 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-12 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $159,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $159,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $159,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $164,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $164,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $164,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $169,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-09 Listed $169,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $169,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-07 Coming Soon $169,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-07 Coming Soon $169,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2018-01-30 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records
• 2010-10-14 Sold (MLS) $41,000 REALCOMP
• 2010-10-12 Sold (MLS) $41,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-09-11 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-08-20 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-08-20 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2010-08-20 Listed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-08-20 Listed $49,900 REALCOMP
• 2010-06-24 Listed $49,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-06-24 Listed $49,900 REALCOMP
• 2010-05-27 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-05-27 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2010-05-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2010-05-06 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-05-06 Listed $39,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-05-06 Listed $39,900 REALCOMP
• 2010-04-09 Listed $42,900 REALCOMP
• 2010-04-09 Listed $42,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-04-09 Sold (MLS) $27,000 REALCOMP
• 2010-03-23 Sold (MLS) $27,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-03-17 Listed $29,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2010-03-17 Listed $29,900 REALCOMP
• 2003-04-16 Sold (MLS) $113,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2003-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $113,000 Public Records
• 2002-10-10 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2002-09-08 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,137 · -46.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.