2500 Avenue H · Bay City, TX 77414

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,629 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 235 Days on market

Built 1940 7,492 sqft lot $71/sqft · 30% below area Est $165k · 30% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming Historic District Fixer-Upper with Endless Potential Step back in time with this 1940-built home located in the heart of the historic district. Situated on a beautiful corner lot shaded by mature pecan trees and surrounded by other well-maintained historic homes, this property offers timeless charm and tremendous opportunity. The home features a thoughtful layout and has had some updates over the years, including electrical improvements. It is ready for a full renovation to restore its original character and add modern touches. An additional garage apartment is included—perfect for a future guest suite, studio, or rental once restored. The roof and home will need attention, but the possibilities here are truly unlimited. Bring your vision and make this classic property shine again!

Key facts

• Mature pecan trees
• Garage apartment
• Historic district

Tags

• HISTORIC DISTRICT
• CORNER LOT
• MATURE PECAN TREES
• GARAGE APARTMENT
• ELECTRICAL IMPROVEMENTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $204 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 3.4% in Bay City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#311 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, commute F.
• Bay City ISD (town): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #604 of 826 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 622 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 153 units permitted in Matagorda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.59%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,983
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -30.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2500 Avenue E	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,758 (+8%)	2mo	$240,000	$137	74
2707 Avenue I	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-4%)	16mo	$74,000	$47	71
1200 Rugeley St	0.53mi	3/1.5	1,541 (-5%)	1mo	$149,199	$97	63
2504 Avenue G	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,525 (-6%)	23mo	$249,500	$164	62
2907 Avenue K	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,748 (+7%)	12mo	$69,900	$40	60
2824 4th St	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,524 (-6%)	3mo	$139,000	$91	52
3120 Avenue H	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,416 (-13%)	6mo	$199,500	$141	50
2812 Park Ave	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,452 (-11%)	13mo	$150,000	$103	38
107 Meadow Oak Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,552 (-5%)	23mo	$235,995	$152	38
2300 8th St	0.48mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,397 (-14%)	14mo	$49,900	$36	35
2410 Carrington St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,845 (+13%)	18mo	$266,500	$144	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.28% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-5,139
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $14,370
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77414

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 622
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,446 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,452/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,188

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $269	-5% $236	+0% $204	+5% $171	+10% $139
Rent	-10% $90	-5% $147	+0% $204	+5% $261	+10% $318
Rate	-1.0pp $262	-0.5pp $233	base $204	+0.5pp $174	+1.0pp $144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2600 Avenue K Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,665	$1.30	45d	1	0.26mi
2824 4th St Bay City, TX	4.0	2.0	1524	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.75mi
1700 Baywood Dr Bay City, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	805	$1,233	$1.53	45d	57	1.10mi
1401 Thompson Dr Bay City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	920	$1,250	$1.36	45d	4	1.16mi
3112 15th St Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1983	$1,800	$0.91	45d	1	1.23mi
1417 Highland Dr Bay City, TX	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,600	$0.96	45d	1	1.32mi
1901 Palm Village Blvd Bay City, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	955	$849	$0.89	45d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 235 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,000 Active 233 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,000 Active 232 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,000 Active 231 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,000 Active 230 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,000 Active 229 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,000 Active 227 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $115,000 Active 226 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,000 Active 223 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,000 Active 222 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 221 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,000 Active 220 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $115,000 Active 216 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $115,000 Active 215 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $115,000 Active 214 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $115,000 Active 213 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    price $115,000 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Charming Historic District Fixer-Upper with Endless Potential Step back in time with this 1940-built home located in the heart of the historic district. Situated on a beautiful corner lot shaded by mature pecan trees and surrounded by other well-maintained historic homes, this property offers timeless charm and tremendous opportunity. The home features a thoughtful layout and has had some updates over the years, including electrical improvements. It is ready for a full renovation to restore its original character and add modern touches. An additional garage apartment is included—perfect for a future guest suite, studio, or rental once restored. The roof and home will need attention, but the possibilities here are truly unlimited. Bring your vision and make this classic property shine again!

18. 2026-03-12
    price $117,500 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Charming Historic District Fixer-Upper with Endless Potential Step back in time with this 1940-built home located in the heart of the historic district. Situated on a beautiful corner lot shaded by mature pecan trees and surrounded by other well-maintained historic homes, this property offers timeless charm and tremendous opportunity. The home features a thoughtful layout and has had some updates over the years, including electrical improvements. It is ready for a full renovation to restore its original character and add modern touches. An additional garage apartment is included—perfect for a future guest suite, studio, or rental once restored. The roof and home will need attention, but the possibilities here are truly unlimited. Bring your vision and make this classic property shine again!

19. 2026-02-10
    price $118,000 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Charming Historic District Fixer-Upper with Endless Potential Step back in time with this 1940-built home located in the heart of the historic district. Situated on a beautiful corner lot shaded by mature pecan trees and surrounded by other well-maintained historic homes, this property offers timeless charm and tremendous opportunity. The home features a thoughtful layout and has had some updates over the years, including electrical improvements. It is ready for a full renovation to restore its original character and add modern touches. An additional garage apartment is included—perfect for a future guest suite, studio, or rental once restored. The roof and home will need attention, but the possibilities here are truly unlimited. Bring your vision and make this classic property shine again!

20. 2026-01-06
    price $120,000 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Charming Historic District Fixer-Upper with Endless Potential Step back in time with this 1940-built home located in the heart of the historic district. Situated on a beautiful corner lot shaded by mature pecan trees and surrounded by other well-maintained historic homes, this property offers timeless charm and tremendous opportunity. The home features a thoughtful layout and has had some updates over the years, including electrical improvements. It is ready for a full renovation to restore its original character and add modern touches. An additional garage apartment is included—perfect for a future guest suite, studio, or rental once restored. The roof and home will need attention, but the possibilities here are truly unlimited. Bring your vision and make this classic property shine again!

21. 2025-10-29
    listed $130,000 Active 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    Charming Historic District Fixer-Upper with Endless Potential Step back in time with this 1940-built home located in the heart of the historic district. Situated on a beautiful corner lot shaded by mature pecan trees and surrounded by other well-maintained historic homes, this property offers timeless charm and tremendous opportunity. The home features a thoughtful layout and has had some updates over the years, including electrical improvements. It is ready for a full renovation to restore its original character and add modern touches. An additional garage apartment is included—perfect for a future guest suite, studio, or rental once restored. The roof and home will need attention, but the possibilities here are truly unlimited. Bring your vision and make this classic property shine again!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,452 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,452 · $288/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,353
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$3,452
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,388
• − Management: −$1,388
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $762
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$183
• After-tax cash flow: $2,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,285
• Composite: 26.4/100
• National rank: #7229
• State rank: #604 of 826 in TX

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #7004

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, TX
• County: Matagorda County · 24,334 people
• City population: 24,334
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,334
• Household income: $59,128
• Rent vs Own: 41.6% rent · 58.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1228.0

Population outlook (Matagorda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,148 people
• By 2030: 37,082 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 36,987 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 36,934 · -0.6%
• By 2075: 37,178 · +0.1%
• By 2100: 35,184 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 39% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matagorda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.5) · D 24.3% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -27.4pp · 2024: -50.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.5 2020: R+44.5 2016: R+40.7 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -36.31%
• Current HPI: 168.9985
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• Metro: Bay City, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $115,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $117,500 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $118,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $130,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,452 · -6.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.