102 Arrowood Trl Unit F128 · Mount Gilead, NC 27306

$80,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 548 sqft · SingleFamily · 196 Days on market

Built 1988 3,049 sqft lot Est $112k · 29% under $46/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to your "Lake Cottage" here in the park. This 1 bedroom and 1 bath unit is full of colors and fun. It comes fully furnished and ready for her new owner's. Large living room, flex space right at the door. Nice size dining area. Front end kitchen gives more space in kitchen, counters and cabinets. Good storage in camper. Some concrete, metal carport, 2 storage buildings. The lot is an interesting shape. All buyers must be with a realtor to gain entry to the community. Come and see if this could be your "Happy Place" here in Twin Harbor. No title, Bill of Sale will be provided.

Key facts

• Flex space
• Front end kitchen
• Dining area

Tags

• FULLY FURNISHED
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• FLEX SPACE
• DINING AREA
• FRONT END KITCHEN
• GOOD STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on Lake Tillery
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA with annual fee of $550; Gated community; Lake access; Outdoor pool; Picnic area; Playground; Recreation area; Walking trails

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Has carport
• Utilities: County water; County sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-family residence; One story; RV zoning
• Construction: Vinyl exterior; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Level and sloped lot; Concrete, gravel and paved road surfaces; Private maintained road; Beach access (public); Community boat ramp

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Ceiling fan(s); Window unit(s)
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Ceiling fan(s); Window unit(s)
• Laundry & utility: No laundry facilities listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $419 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.6% vs local median 4.8% in Mount Gilead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#58 in NC, #4,548 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Montgomery County Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #143 of 178 in NC (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mount Gilead Elementary (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #975 of 1,410 statewide, top 71%, 213 students, 87% FRL); West Middle (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #388 of 475 statewide, top 83%, 309 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 113 active listings in the ZIP; 138 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.61% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.44%
• DSCR: 2.00
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $112,340
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
148 Twin Bluff Trl Unit C42	0.23mi	1/1.0	513 (-6%)	9mo	$150,000	$292	71
138 Larboard Trl	0.13mi	2/1.0 (+1)	600 (+10%)	6mo	$120,000	$200	68
111 Sunshine Trl Unit A 249/250	0.19mi	2/1.0 (+1)	608 (+11%)	2mo	$124,900	$205	66
146 Larboard Trl	0.16mi	1/1.0	484 (-12%)	11mo	$79,000	$163	64
175 Arrowood Trl Unit F/94	0.11mi	1/1.0	480 (-12%)	12mo	$140,000	$292	64
158 Arrowood Trl Unit F27	0.16mi	1/1.0	600 (+10%)	20mo	$130,000	$217	61
109 Hide A Way Trl	0.21mi	2/1.0 (+1)	470 (-14%)	3mo	$77,500	$165	59
128 Twin Bluff Trl Unit C52	0.20mi	2/1.0 (+1)	485 (-12%)	13mo	$99,000	$204	56
220 Roberts Ridge Rd Unit H13	0.29mi	1/1.0	476 (-13%)	13mo	$100,000	$210	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.94% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $20,929
• Equity at exit: $19,549

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $59,522
• Equity at exit: $20,731

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27306

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 113
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,288 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$100 /mo · $1,200/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $419

Break-even live

Break-even rent $758

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $474	-5% $447	+0% $419	+5% $391	+10% $364
Rent	-10% $317	-5% $368	+0% $419	+5% $470	+10% $521
Rate	-1.0pp $459	-0.5pp $439	base $419	+0.5pp $398	+1.0pp $377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $80,000 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 193 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 192 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 191 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 190 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $80,000 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $80,000 Active 185 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 184 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $80,000 Active 183 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $80,000 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $80,000 Active 178 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 177 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 176 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 175 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 174 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    price $80,000
19. 2025-12-07
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,200
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,237
• − Management: −$1,237
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $4,026
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$966
• After-tax cash flow: $4,061/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703060
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $34,706
• Composite: 25.97/100
• National rank: #7328
• State rank: #143 of 178 in NC

Livability — Mount Gilead

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #4548

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,457

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,533 people
• By 2030: 25,724 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 23,842 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 22,077 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 18,754 · -29.3%
• By 2100: 15,537 · -41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 26% Asian 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · China, Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.8) · D 30.8% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.9pp toward R · 2008: -11.0pp · 2024: -37.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.8 2020: R+31.8 2016: R+25.9 2012: R+15.2 2008: R+11.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.94%
• Current HPI: 334.2599
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $80,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-07 Listed $85,000 CANOPYMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid