308 Fresno Trl · Frazier Park, CA 93225

$117,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 416 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1955 3,490 sqft lot $282/sqft · 42% below area Est $203k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property is a Fixer

Key facts

• 3,490 sq ft lot
• Built 1955
• Listed 23 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.6% in Frazier Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,064 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• El Tejon Unified (rural): math 13% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #361 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 122 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $812 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $118k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $115,737 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.01%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,646
• List price: $117,500
• Delta: -40.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-1,586
• Equity at exit: $17,520

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $21,016
• Equity at exit: $10,159

Cash invested: $32,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93225

• Home prices YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 122
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,279 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$616
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $848/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $931

Max offer price $117,500

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,375
• Closing costs: $3,525
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $117,500 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $117,500 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $117,500 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $117,500 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $117,500 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $117,500 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $117,500 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $117,500 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $117,500 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $117,500 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $117,500 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $117,500 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $117,500 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $117,500 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $117,500 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-02-27
    listed $120,000 Active 19-char remark

    Show marketing remark (19 chars)

    Property is a Fixer

17. 2023-08-10
    soldstatus $60,000
18. 1980-01-31
    soldstatus $9,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $848 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $893 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: +$45/yr (+$4/mo · 5.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,582
• − Property taxes: −$848
• − Insurance: −$588
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,228
• − Management: −$1,228
• − Depreciation: −$3,418
• Taxable income: $1,455
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$349
• After-tax cash flow: $2,944/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Tejon Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600026
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,019
• Composite: 25.15/100
• National rank: #7519
• State rank: #361 of 517 in CA

Livability — Frazier Park

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1064
• US rank: #25253

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Frazier Park, CA
• Population (ZIP): 4,532

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Serbian 3% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.47%
• Current HPI: 354.6398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1204.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Listed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2023-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 1980-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $9,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $848 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.