15922 Azalea Shores Ct · Houston, TX 77044

$320,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,661 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 2007 8,319 sqft lot Est $383k · 16% under $77/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This 1 story 4-bedroom, 2-bath brick home offers the perfect opportunity to personalize a well-designed floor plan with great bones and timeless features. Inside, you'll find high ceilings, abundant natural light, a spacious family room with fireplace, and an open-concept kitchen with granite countertops, gas cooking, and ample cabinetry. The Formal Dining room and Flex gameroom are spacious and versatile. The generous primary suite features a large walk-in closet, dual vanities, soaking tub, and separate shower. Fresh neutral tones and expansive living spaces create a blank canvas ready for your vision. Located just steps from Lakeshore's pool, splash pad, trails, and community amenities,

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Open-concept kitchen
• Gas cooking

Tags

• WELL-DESIGNED FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• GAS COOKING
• AMPLE CABINETRY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Association fee paid annually
• HOA & community: Part of Lakeshore HOA; Annual HOA fee; Community amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, picnic area, playground, park, pool, tennis courts, trails; Community features: community pool, curbs, gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage with door opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Composition roof; Built in 2007
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Sprinkler/irrigation system; Porch; Private yard; Tennis court(s) (association); Pond on lot; Located on a cul-de-sac; Subdivision amenities

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; Refrigerator; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (13 x 16); Bedroom on the first floor (12.5 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (14 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 12)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Jetted tub and separate shower in primary bath; Double vanity
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; Jetted tub; Kitchen/family room combo; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Window treatments; Gas fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (9.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $290k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lakeshore El (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #2,525 of 4,322 statewide, top 62%, 862 students, 48% FRL); Woodcreek Middle (math 46% / reading 49%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 1,145 students, 36% FRL); Humble H S (math 15% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,867 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 32% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 340 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.6%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,008 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.66%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.27%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $383,184
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16007 Angler Bend Dr	0.26mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,674 (+0%)	5mo	$349,786	$131	74
15915 Angler Bend Dr	0.21mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,710 (+2%)	5mo	$315,000	$116	72
15615 Tindary Meadow Ct	0.67mi	3/2.0	2,673 (+0%)	2mo	$350,000	$131	66
13014 Barkley Bend Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,329 (-12%)	1mo	$330,000	$142	59
12926 Barkley Bend Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,364 (-11%)	1mo	$339,900	$144	58
13235 Barkley Bend Ln	0.44mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,828 (+6%)	5mo	$475,000	$168	56
12919 Palm Leaf Ct	0.48mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,863 (+8%)	3mo	$229,900	$80	56
16631 Polletts Cove Ct	0.68mi	3/2.5	2,396 (-10%)	2mo	$372,500	$155	48
15842 Lost Anchor Way Ln	0.53mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,280 (-14%)	5mo	$250,000	$110	40
13506 Breakwater Path Loop	0.59mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,045 (+14%)	3mo	$510,000	$167	37
13110 Sierra National Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,396 (-10%)	5mo	$409,999	$171	37
16630 Polletts Cove Ct	0.65mi	4/3.0 (+1)	3,003 (+13%)	6mo	$445,000	$148	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.59% appreciation · 0.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-49,220
• Equity at exit: $68,342

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-62,476
• Equity at exit: $64,427

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77044

• Home prices YoY: -0.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,026 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$672 /mo · $8,060/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$77
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$635
• Net cashflow: $-170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,241

Max offer price $290,008

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11	-5% $-79	+0% $-170	+5% $-260	+10% $-351
Rent	-10% $-409	-5% $-289	+0% $-170	+5% $-50	+10% $69
Rate	-1.0pp $-9	-0.5pp $-88	base $-170	+0.5pp $-253	+1.0pp $-337

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16614 Spirit Lake Ct Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2374	$2,395	$1.01	26d	1	0.66mi
12731 Arcola Valley Ct Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2663	$2,676	$1.00	1d	1	0.93mi
16807 Hemlock Grove Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2476	$3,100	$1.25	45d	1	0.97mi
15410 Rosehill Summit Ln Houston, TX	4.0	3.0	2631	$5,000	$1.90	3d	1	1.02mi
13513 Northline Lake Dr Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2034	$2,800	$1.38	45d	1	1.20mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,150	$1.20	4d	1	1.22mi
15614 Countesswells Dr Unit NA Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2620	$3,350	$1.28	45d	1	1.22mi
12643 Jamestown Crossing Ln Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2450	$4,995	$2.04	26d	1	1.40mi
16411 Little Pine Creek Dr Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2646	$2,871	$1.09	1d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $77 · $924/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $320,000 Pending 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $320,000 Pending 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,000 Pending 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,000 Pending 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Pending 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $320,000 Pending 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $320,000 Pending 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $320,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,060 · $672/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,060 · $672/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,309
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$8,060
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,905
• − Management: −$2,905
• − HOA: −$924
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$7,319
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,756
• After-tax cash flow: $-281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,347
• Household income: $95,000
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1332.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% Black 32% White 19% Two or more races 18% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.59%
• Current HPI: 215.5736
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.92%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12207.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2024-02-25 Rental Removed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2024-01-19 Price Changed $2,500 HARMLS
• 2023-10-24 Listed for Rent $2,600 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,060 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.