444 Miller Rd · East Greenbush, NY 12061

$125,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,770 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2003

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A fantastic opportunity awaits at this expansive executive ranch set on a landscaped lot within the East Greenbush CSD. This charming home offers a meticulously cared for interior and exterior, highlighted by modern amenities. The light-filled interior showcases an open living room, a culinary kitchen flowing into the dining area. Continue to the cozy family room with fireplace and full bath. The sleeping quarters include primary bedroom with en-suite and two additional bedrooms. Step outside to a covered front porch or the covered back deck, patio, and sprawling backyard-perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Hobbyists and gearheads will love the heated, oversized detached garage with bonus living space above, ideal for an office or in-law setup. A must see home with so much to offer!

Key facts

• Workshop shed
• Built 2003

Tags

• STREAM ON EASTERN EDGE
• WORKSHOP SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 16.1% vs local median 3.0% in East Greenbush — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#233 in NY, #3,674 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• East Greenbush Central School District (suburban): math 68% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #132 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 405 units permitted in Rensselaer County in 2024 (224 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rensselaer County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 9 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.11%
• DSCR: 2.56
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $327,450
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
320 Miller Rd	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,734 (-2%)	10mo	$320,000	$185	56
292 Palmer Rd	0.58mi	4/1.0	1,664 (-6%)	21mo	$285,000	$171	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $45,003
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.52×
• Total profit: $123,319
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12061

• Home prices YoY: -22.2%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,390 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $1,024

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,093

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 52%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,110	-5% $1,067	+0% $1,024	+5% $981	+10% $938
Rent	-10% $835	-5% $930	+0% $1,024	+5% $1,118	+10% $1,213
Rate	-1.0pp $1,087	-0.5pp $1,056	base $1,024	+0.5pp $992	+1.0pp $959

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-10
   remarks 192-char remark
2. 2026-06-10
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,294
• − Management: −$2,294
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $10,950
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,628
• After-tax cash flow: $9,661/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Greenbush Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3609630
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $73,174
• Composite: 61.16/100
• National rank: #783
• State rank: #132 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Greenbush

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #233
• US rank: #3674

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,778

Population outlook (Rensselaer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 162,400 people
• By 2030: 161,746 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 158,095 · -2.7%
• By 2050: 152,966 · -5.8%
• By 2075: 140,767 · -13.3%
• By 2100: 124,727 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Rensselaer

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.7% · R 49.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.0pp toward R · 2008: 9.3pp · 2024: 1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.4 2020: D+5.6 2016: R+2.9 2012: D+11.8 2008: D+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.49%
• Current HPI: 265.2112
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-62.1% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Listed $125,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $520,000 Public Records
• 2025-06-27 Sold (MLS) $520,000 Global MLS
• 2025-06-27 Sold (MLS) $520,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-05-05 Delisted — HVCRMLS
• 2025-04-29 Pending — Global MLS
• 2025-04-25 Listed $499,900 Global MLS
• 2025-04-25 Listed $499,900 HVCRMLS
• 2019-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $324,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-27 Sold (MLS) $324,000 Global MLS
• 2019-06-10 Pending — Global MLS
• 2019-04-27 Listed $327,000 Global MLS
• 2017-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $275,000 Public Records
• 2017-06-19 Sold (MLS) $275,000 Global MLS
• 2017-05-05 Pending — Global MLS
• 2017-03-10 Price Changed $294,000 Global MLS
• 2016-11-01 Listed $297,000 Global MLS
• 2013-07-06 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2011-06-23 Listed $319,900 Global MLS
• 2011-05-31 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2010-10-13 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2010-10-13 Listed $319,900 Global MLS
• 2010-10-06 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2010-10-06 Listed $329,900 Global MLS
• 2010-04-19 Listed $329,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $11,612 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.