Timberline Plan · Celina, TX 75009

$384,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,193 sqft · SingleFamily · 673 Days on market

↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Experience the warmth and charm of La Terra at Uptown Celina, a remarkable community featuring Pacesetter Homes. Leave behind the hustle and bustle of city life and discover the tranquility of a picturesque town on the outskirts of Dallas. Nestled in the heart of Celina, TX, you'll enjoy the convenience of being near Hwy 289 and other major roadways, with easy access to Preston Rd. and the Dallas North Tollway. Your children will thrive in the exceptional schools of Celina ISD, while you indulge in over 20 acres of serene green open space. As the community matures, you'll delight in the lush trees, enchanting walking trails, and luxurious resort-style amenities that will transform La Terra at Uptown into a true haven. We offer an array of thoughtfully designed floor plans, tailored to suit your unique needs. With extraordinary features and personalization options, you have the opportunity to build the home of your dreams. Don't miss out on the chance to call this remarkable community your home.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 673 days

🏗️ New construction. The $384,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $450,661.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-732 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (10.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $302k (21.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $302k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 2895 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 673 days — a 12% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $301,623 (21.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 673 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.96%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $450,661
• List price: $384,900
• Delta: -14.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1428 Florence Ln	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,196 (+0%)	1mo	$404,950	$184	85
1436 Bramante	0.18mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,193 (0%)	1mo	$399,950	$182	84
1409 Bramante St	0.20mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,144 (-2%)	1mo	$349,990	$163	81
1425 Marcella Ln	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,144 (-2%)	1mo	$350,000	$163	80
1430 Marcella Ln	0.24mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,192 (-0%)	3mo	$469,980	$214	80
1439 Florence Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	2,041 (-7%)	3mo	$449,970	$220	79
1424 Florence Ln	0.15mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,330 (+6%)	1mo	$414,970	$178	75
1737 Sugar Maple Mews	0.47mi	3/2.5	2,231 (+2%)	1mo	$417,635	$187	74
1501 Buchanan Way	0.50mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,229 (+2%)	2mo	$365,999	$164	66
1012 Rainshower Way	0.50mi	3/2.5	2,438 (+11%)	3mo	$414,355	$170	56
1413 Buchanan Way	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,924 (-12%)	1mo	$336,999	$175	49
1512 Canter St	0.54mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,501 (+14%)	1mo	$499,000	$200	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-128,416
• Equity at exit: $67,195

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.63×
• Total profit: $-205,798
• Equity at exit: $38,965

Cash invested: $126,185 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 2895
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,016 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,363
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$563 /mo · $6,760/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $-732

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,942

Max offer price $344,798

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,665
• Closing costs: $13,520
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1424 Bettolo Dr Celina, TX	4.0	3.5	2706	$3,450	$1.27	7d	1	0.09mi
1712 Goodnight Trl Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2231	$2,800	$1.26	21d	1	0.50mi
2212 W J Fred Smith Pkwy Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	1594	$3,500	$2.20	1d	1	0.54mi
7592 Rawhide Rd Celina, TX	2.0	2.0	2360	$4,950	$2.10	43d	1	1.05mi
401 Osprey Ln Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	2833	$3,150	$1.11	43d	1	1.21mi
3100 Arthurdale St Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	2184	$2,399	$1.10	43d	1	1.39mi
2020 Beeflower St Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2032	$2,399	$1.18	43d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $384,900 Active 673 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $384,900 Active 672 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $384,900 Active 671 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $384,900 Active 670 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $384,900 Active 668 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $384,900 Active 664 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $384,900 Active 663 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $384,900 Active 662 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $384,900 Active 659 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $384,900 Active 658 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $384,900 Active 657 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $384,900 Active 656 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $384,900 Active 655 DOM
14. 2026-02-18
    status Active 1009-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    Experience the warmth and charm of La Terra at Uptown Celina, a remarkable community featuring Pacesetter Homes. Leave behind the hustle and bustle of city life and discover the tranquility of a picturesque town on the outskirts of Dallas. Nestled in the heart of Celina, TX, you'll enjoy the convenience of being near Hwy 289 and other major roadways, with easy access to Preston Rd. and the Dallas North Tollway. Your children will thrive in the exceptional schools of Celina ISD, while you indulge in over 20 acres of serene green open space. As the community matures, you'll delight in the lush trees, enchanting walking trails, and luxurious resort-style amenities that will transform La Terra at Uptown into a true haven. We offer an array of thoughtfully designed floor plans, tailored to suit your unique needs. With extraordinary features and personalization options, you have the opportunity to build the home of your dreams. Don't miss out on the chance to call this remarkable community your home.

15. 2026-02-18
    historical 1009-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    Experience the warmth and charm of La Terra at Uptown Celina, a remarkable community featuring Pacesetter Homes. Leave behind the hustle and bustle of city life and discover the tranquility of a picturesque town on the outskirts of Dallas. Nestled in the heart of Celina, TX, you'll enjoy the convenience of being near Hwy 289 and other major roadways, with easy access to Preston Rd. and the Dallas North Tollway. Your children will thrive in the exceptional schools of Celina ISD, while you indulge in over 20 acres of serene green open space. As the community matures, you'll delight in the lush trees, enchanting walking trails, and luxurious resort-style amenities that will transform La Terra at Uptown into a true haven. We offer an array of thoughtfully designed floor plans, tailored to suit your unique needs. With extraordinary features and personalization options, you have the opportunity to build the home of your dreams. Don't miss out on the chance to call this remarkable community your home.

16. 2026-02-04
    status Active 1009-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    Experience the warmth and charm of La Terra at Uptown Celina, a remarkable community featuring Pacesetter Homes. Leave behind the hustle and bustle of city life and discover the tranquility of a picturesque town on the outskirts of Dallas. Nestled in the heart of Celina, TX, you'll enjoy the convenience of being near Hwy 289 and other major roadways, with easy access to Preston Rd. and the Dallas North Tollway. Your children will thrive in the exceptional schools of Celina ISD, while you indulge in over 20 acres of serene green open space. As the community matures, you'll delight in the lush trees, enchanting walking trails, and luxurious resort-style amenities that will transform La Terra at Uptown into a true haven. We offer an array of thoughtfully designed floor plans, tailored to suit your unique needs. With extraordinary features and personalization options, you have the opportunity to build the home of your dreams. Don't miss out on the chance to call this remarkable community your home.

17. 2026-02-04
    historical 1009-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    Experience the warmth and charm of La Terra at Uptown Celina, a remarkable community featuring Pacesetter Homes. Leave behind the hustle and bustle of city life and discover the tranquility of a picturesque town on the outskirts of Dallas. Nestled in the heart of Celina, TX, you'll enjoy the convenience of being near Hwy 289 and other major roadways, with easy access to Preston Rd. and the Dallas North Tollway. Your children will thrive in the exceptional schools of Celina ISD, while you indulge in over 20 acres of serene green open space. As the community matures, you'll delight in the lush trees, enchanting walking trails, and luxurious resort-style amenities that will transform La Terra at Uptown into a true haven. We offer an array of thoughtfully designed floor plans, tailored to suit your unique needs. With extraordinary features and personalization options, you have the opportunity to build the home of your dreams. Don't miss out on the chance to call this remarkable community your home.

18. 2026-01-21
    status Active 1009-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    Experience the warmth and charm of La Terra at Uptown Celina, a remarkable community featuring Pacesetter Homes. Leave behind the hustle and bustle of city life and discover the tranquility of a picturesque town on the outskirts of Dallas. Nestled in the heart of Celina, TX, you'll enjoy the convenience of being near Hwy 289 and other major roadways, with easy access to Preston Rd. and the Dallas North Tollway. Your children will thrive in the exceptional schools of Celina ISD, while you indulge in over 20 acres of serene green open space. As the community matures, you'll delight in the lush trees, enchanting walking trails, and luxurious resort-style amenities that will transform La Terra at Uptown into a true haven. We offer an array of thoughtfully designed floor plans, tailored to suit your unique needs. With extraordinary features and personalization options, you have the opportunity to build the home of your dreams. Don't miss out on the chance to call this remarkable community your home.

19. 2026-01-21
    historical 1009-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    Experience the warmth and charm of La Terra at Uptown Celina, a remarkable community featuring Pacesetter Homes. Leave behind the hustle and bustle of city life and discover the tranquility of a picturesque town on the outskirts of Dallas. Nestled in the heart of Celina, TX, you'll enjoy the convenience of being near Hwy 289 and other major roadways, with easy access to Preston Rd. and the Dallas North Tollway. Your children will thrive in the exceptional schools of Celina ISD, while you indulge in over 20 acres of serene green open space. As the community matures, you'll delight in the lush trees, enchanting walking trails, and luxurious resort-style amenities that will transform La Terra at Uptown into a true haven. We offer an array of thoughtfully designed floor plans, tailored to suit your unique needs. With extraordinary features and personalization options, you have the opportunity to build the home of your dreams. Don't miss out on the chance to call this remarkable community your home.

20. 2025-12-24
    price $384,900 1009-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    Experience the warmth and charm of La Terra at Uptown Celina, a remarkable community featuring Pacesetter Homes. Leave behind the hustle and bustle of city life and discover the tranquility of a picturesque town on the outskirts of Dallas. Nestled in the heart of Celina, TX, you'll enjoy the convenience of being near Hwy 289 and other major roadways, with easy access to Preston Rd. and the Dallas North Tollway. Your children will thrive in the exceptional schools of Celina ISD, while you indulge in over 20 acres of serene green open space. As the community matures, you'll delight in the lush trees, enchanting walking trails, and luxurious resort-style amenities that will transform La Terra at Uptown into a true haven. We offer an array of thoughtfully designed floor plans, tailored to suit your unique needs. With extraordinary features and personalization options, you have the opportunity to build the home of your dreams. Don't miss out on the chance to call this remarkable community your home.

21. 2024-10-22
    price $431,900 1009-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    Experience the warmth and charm of La Terra at Uptown Celina, a remarkable community featuring Pacesetter Homes. Leave behind the hustle and bustle of city life and discover the tranquility of a picturesque town on the outskirts of Dallas. Nestled in the heart of Celina, TX, you'll enjoy the convenience of being near Hwy 289 and other major roadways, with easy access to Preston Rd. and the Dallas North Tollway. Your children will thrive in the exceptional schools of Celina ISD, while you indulge in over 20 acres of serene green open space. As the community matures, you'll delight in the lush trees, enchanting walking trails, and luxurious resort-style amenities that will transform La Terra at Uptown into a true haven. We offer an array of thoughtfully designed floor plans, tailored to suit your unique needs. With extraordinary features and personalization options, you have the opportunity to build the home of your dreams. Don't miss out on the chance to call this remarkable community your home.

22. 2024-08-13
    listed $426,900 Active 1009-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1009 chars)

    Experience the warmth and charm of La Terra at Uptown Celina, a remarkable community featuring Pacesetter Homes. Leave behind the hustle and bustle of city life and discover the tranquility of a picturesque town on the outskirts of Dallas. Nestled in the heart of Celina, TX, you'll enjoy the convenience of being near Hwy 289 and other major roadways, with easy access to Preston Rd. and the Dallas North Tollway. Your children will thrive in the exceptional schools of Celina ISD, while you indulge in over 20 acres of serene green open space. As the community matures, you'll delight in the lush trees, enchanting walking trails, and luxurious resort-style amenities that will transform La Terra at Uptown into a true haven. We offer an array of thoughtfully designed floor plans, tailored to suit your unique needs. With extraordinary features and personalization options, you have the opportunity to build the home of your dreams. Don't miss out on the chance to call this remarkable community your home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,195
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,244
• − Property taxes: −$6,760
• − Insurance: −$2,253
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,896
• − Management: −$2,896
• − Depreciation: −$13,110
• Taxable loss: −$16,964
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,071
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,708/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-18 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-04 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-21 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-21 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-12-24 Price Changed $384,900 Zillow
• 2024-10-22 Price Changed $431,900 Zillow
• 2024-08-13 Listed $426,900 Zillow