227 Hogan Dr · Del Rio, TX 78840

$139,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,710 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1957

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 4-Bedroom, 2-Bath Home Near Moore Park This quaint and comfortable 4-bedroom, 2-bath home offers plenty of space for a growing family. Enjoy a formal living room and dining room, perfect for relaxing with a good book or entertaining guests. The spacious family room is located at the back of the home and can easily serve as a game room, media room, or theater room, with convenient access to the backyard. All four bedrooms are generously sized, and one bedroom features its own exterior entrance, making it ideal for a home office, guest room, or private workspace. The home needs a little TLC but offers great potential and important updates, including: Offered "As-Is - priced acc

Key facts

• Covered carport
• Exterior entrance
• Formal living room

Tags

• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• EXTERIOR ENTRANCE
• COVERED CARPORT
• LARGE STORAGE ROOM
• FULLY FENCED CHAIN-LINK YARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick and block construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Masonry fireplace; Gas Range, Refrigerator, Electric Water Heater
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $580 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $139k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#349 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• San Felipe-Del Rio CISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #667 of 826 in TX (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ruben Chavira El (math 22% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 505 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 70% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 549 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 85 units permitted in Val Verde County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Val Verde County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.88%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $11,664
• Equity at exit: $20,725

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $46,785
• Equity at exit: $12,018

Cash invested: $38,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78840

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 549
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,914 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$729
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,740/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $580

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,180

Max offer price $139,000

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $658	-5% $619	+0% $580	+5% $540	+10% $501
Rent	-10% $429	-5% $504	+0% $580	+5% $655	+10% $731
Rate	-1.0pp $650	-0.5pp $615	base $580	+0.5pp $544	+1.0pp $507

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,750
• Closing costs: $4,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Kennedy Dr Del Rio, TX	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,350	$1.11	44d	1	0.68mi
410 Pulliam St Del Rio, TX	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,800	$1.06	44d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $139,000 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   remarks 694-char remark
6. 2026-06-07
   listed $139,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,740 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,544 · $212/mo
• Expected delta: +$804/yr (+$67/mo · 46.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,786
• − Property taxes: −$1,740
• − Insurance: −$695
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,837
• − Management: −$1,837
• − Depreciation: −$4,044
• Taxable income: $5,023
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,206
• After-tax cash flow: $5,752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Felipe-Del Rio CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838900
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,582
• Composite: 24.04/100
• National rank: #7766
• State rank: #667 of 826 in TX

Livability — Del Rio

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #7531

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Del Rio, TX
• County: Val Verde County · 47,256 people
• City population: 47,256
• Metro: Del Rio, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,256
• Household income: $66,084
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1111.0

Population outlook (Val Verde County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,073 people
• By 2030: 47,468 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 45,930 · -4.5%
• By 2050: 43,904 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 38,126 · -20.7%
• By 2100: 26,217 · -45.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 24% White 15% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 63%

Political lean MEDSL · Val Verde

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+26.6) · D 36.2% · R 62.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.2pp toward R · 2008: 9.6pp · 2024: -26.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+26.6 2020: R+9.9 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+9.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -81.95%
• Current HPI: 161.762
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Metro: Del Rio, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $139,000 DRBORMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,740 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.