14214 NW 154th Pl · Alachua, FL 32615

$249,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,330 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2023 4,792 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Construction Walking Distance From Downtown Alachua. Less Than Half Mile From Downtown Alachua. This Home Boasts Granite Throughout. Vinyl Plank Flooring In The Common Areas And Tile In The Wet Areas. Ceiling Fans In The Bedrooms. Picturesque Hues Of Color That Are Sure To Match Any Color Scheme. This Quaint Older Neighborhood has Shade Throughout The Street Allowing for Nice Days Of Sitting Outside Or Taking a Walk Downtown. Come a Take A Look At One Of The Most Coveted Areas.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Granite countertops
• Extended back patio

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• EXTENDED BACK PATIO
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD
• LOCATION NEAR DOWNTOWN ALACHUA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-229/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $247k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#188 in FL, #2,996 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Alachua Elementary School (math 48% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 326 students, 70% FRL); A. L. Mebane Middle School (math 36% / reading 40%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 332 students, 61% FRL); Santa Fe High School (math 35% / reading 56%, grade D-, #223 of 667 statewide, top 34%, 1,154 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: 402 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,592 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-41,748
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-38,065
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32615

• Home prices YoY: -21.6%
• Active inventory: 402
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,026 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,460/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,050

Max offer price $246,523

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $122	-5% $52	+0% $-19	+5% $-90	+10% $-161
Rent	-10% $-179	-5% $-99	+0% $-19	+5% $61	+10% $141
Rate	-1.0pp $107	-0.5pp $44	base $-19	+0.5pp $-84	+1.0pp $-150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-02-02
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-23
   listed $249,900 Active
3. 2025-12-17
   historical
4. 2025-12-05
   status Active
5. 2025-12-04
   historical
6. 2025-11-24
   price $249,990
7. 2025-11-05
   price $264,996
8. 2025-10-28
   price $264,997
9. 2025-10-06
   price $264,998
10. 2025-09-29
    price $266,998
11. 2025-09-22
    price $268,998
12. 2025-09-15
    price $270,998
13. 2025-09-08
    price $272,998
14. 2025-08-18
    price $274,998
15. 2025-07-22
    price $274,999
16. 2025-07-02
    price $275,000
17. 2025-06-30
    price $276,000
18. 2025-06-25
    price $277,000
19. 2025-06-24
    price $278,000
20. 2025-06-23
    price $279,000
21. 2025-06-19
    price $280,000
22. 2025-06-09
    listed $285,000 Active
23. 2023-11-21
    soldstatus $264,000
24. 2023-11-15
    soldstatus $264,900 Closed 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    New Construction Walking Distance From Downtown Alachua. Less Than Half Mile From Downtown Alachua. This Home Boasts Granite Throughout. Vinyl Plank Flooring In The Common Areas And Tile In The Wet Areas. Ceiling Fans In The Bedrooms. Picturesque Hues Of Color That Are Sure To Match Any Color Scheme. This Quaint Older Neighborhood has Shade Throughout The Street Allowing for Nice Days Of Sitting Outside Or Taking a Walk Downtown. Come a Take A Look At One Of The Most Coveted Areas.

25. 2023-11-01
    status Pending 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    New Construction Walking Distance From Downtown Alachua. Less Than Half Mile From Downtown Alachua. This Home Boasts Granite Throughout. Vinyl Plank Flooring In The Common Areas And Tile In The Wet Areas. Ceiling Fans In The Bedrooms. Picturesque Hues Of Color That Are Sure To Match Any Color Scheme. This Quaint Older Neighborhood has Shade Throughout The Street Allowing for Nice Days Of Sitting Outside Or Taking a Walk Downtown. Come a Take A Look At One Of The Most Coveted Areas.

26. 2023-09-19
    price $264,900 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    New Construction Walking Distance From Downtown Alachua. Less Than Half Mile From Downtown Alachua. This Home Boasts Granite Throughout. Vinyl Plank Flooring In The Common Areas And Tile In The Wet Areas. Ceiling Fans In The Bedrooms. Picturesque Hues Of Color That Are Sure To Match Any Color Scheme. This Quaint Older Neighborhood has Shade Throughout The Street Allowing for Nice Days Of Sitting Outside Or Taking a Walk Downtown. Come a Take A Look At One Of The Most Coveted Areas.

27. 2023-09-19
    price $269,000 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    New Construction Walking Distance From Downtown Alachua. Less Than Half Mile From Downtown Alachua. This Home Boasts Granite Throughout. Vinyl Plank Flooring In The Common Areas And Tile In The Wet Areas. Ceiling Fans In The Bedrooms. Picturesque Hues Of Color That Are Sure To Match Any Color Scheme. This Quaint Older Neighborhood has Shade Throughout The Street Allowing for Nice Days Of Sitting Outside Or Taking a Walk Downtown. Come a Take A Look At One Of The Most Coveted Areas.

28. 2023-09-13
    status Active 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    New Construction Walking Distance From Downtown Alachua. Less Than Half Mile From Downtown Alachua. This Home Boasts Granite Throughout. Vinyl Plank Flooring In The Common Areas And Tile In The Wet Areas. Ceiling Fans In The Bedrooms. Picturesque Hues Of Color That Are Sure To Match Any Color Scheme. This Quaint Older Neighborhood has Shade Throughout The Street Allowing for Nice Days Of Sitting Outside Or Taking a Walk Downtown. Come a Take A Look At One Of The Most Coveted Areas.

29. 2023-09-06
    historical 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    New Construction Walking Distance From Downtown Alachua. Less Than Half Mile From Downtown Alachua. This Home Boasts Granite Throughout. Vinyl Plank Flooring In The Common Areas And Tile In The Wet Areas. Ceiling Fans In The Bedrooms. Picturesque Hues Of Color That Are Sure To Match Any Color Scheme. This Quaint Older Neighborhood has Shade Throughout The Street Allowing for Nice Days Of Sitting Outside Or Taking a Walk Downtown. Come a Take A Look At One Of The Most Coveted Areas.

30. 2023-08-10
    price $270,000 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    New Construction Walking Distance From Downtown Alachua. Less Than Half Mile From Downtown Alachua. This Home Boasts Granite Throughout. Vinyl Plank Flooring In The Common Areas And Tile In The Wet Areas. Ceiling Fans In The Bedrooms. Picturesque Hues Of Color That Are Sure To Match Any Color Scheme. This Quaint Older Neighborhood has Shade Throughout The Street Allowing for Nice Days Of Sitting Outside Or Taking a Walk Downtown. Come a Take A Look At One Of The Most Coveted Areas.

31. 2023-07-18
    price $273,899 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    New Construction Walking Distance From Downtown Alachua. Less Than Half Mile From Downtown Alachua. This Home Boasts Granite Throughout. Vinyl Plank Flooring In The Common Areas And Tile In The Wet Areas. Ceiling Fans In The Bedrooms. Picturesque Hues Of Color That Are Sure To Match Any Color Scheme. This Quaint Older Neighborhood has Shade Throughout The Street Allowing for Nice Days Of Sitting Outside Or Taking a Walk Downtown. Come a Take A Look At One Of The Most Coveted Areas.

32. 2023-07-11
    price $285,000 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    New Construction Walking Distance From Downtown Alachua. Less Than Half Mile From Downtown Alachua. This Home Boasts Granite Throughout. Vinyl Plank Flooring In The Common Areas And Tile In The Wet Areas. Ceiling Fans In The Bedrooms. Picturesque Hues Of Color That Are Sure To Match Any Color Scheme. This Quaint Older Neighborhood has Shade Throughout The Street Allowing for Nice Days Of Sitting Outside Or Taking a Walk Downtown. Come a Take A Look At One Of The Most Coveted Areas.

33. 2023-06-06
    price $289,900 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    New Construction Walking Distance From Downtown Alachua. Less Than Half Mile From Downtown Alachua. This Home Boasts Granite Throughout. Vinyl Plank Flooring In The Common Areas And Tile In The Wet Areas. Ceiling Fans In The Bedrooms. Picturesque Hues Of Color That Are Sure To Match Any Color Scheme. This Quaint Older Neighborhood has Shade Throughout The Street Allowing for Nice Days Of Sitting Outside Or Taking a Walk Downtown. Come a Take A Look At One Of The Most Coveted Areas.

34. 2023-05-07
    price $294,900 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    New Construction Walking Distance From Downtown Alachua. Less Than Half Mile From Downtown Alachua. This Home Boasts Granite Throughout. Vinyl Plank Flooring In The Common Areas And Tile In The Wet Areas. Ceiling Fans In The Bedrooms. Picturesque Hues Of Color That Are Sure To Match Any Color Scheme. This Quaint Older Neighborhood has Shade Throughout The Street Allowing for Nice Days Of Sitting Outside Or Taking a Walk Downtown. Come a Take A Look At One Of The Most Coveted Areas.

35. 2023-04-01
    price $299,900 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    New Construction Walking Distance From Downtown Alachua. Less Than Half Mile From Downtown Alachua. This Home Boasts Granite Throughout. Vinyl Plank Flooring In The Common Areas And Tile In The Wet Areas. Ceiling Fans In The Bedrooms. Picturesque Hues Of Color That Are Sure To Match Any Color Scheme. This Quaint Older Neighborhood has Shade Throughout The Street Allowing for Nice Days Of Sitting Outside Or Taking a Walk Downtown. Come a Take A Look At One Of The Most Coveted Areas.

36. 2023-02-27
    listed $305,000 Active 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    New Construction Walking Distance From Downtown Alachua. Less Than Half Mile From Downtown Alachua. This Home Boasts Granite Throughout. Vinyl Plank Flooring In The Common Areas And Tile In The Wet Areas. Ceiling Fans In The Bedrooms. Picturesque Hues Of Color That Are Sure To Match Any Color Scheme. This Quaint Older Neighborhood has Shade Throughout The Street Allowing for Nice Days Of Sitting Outside Or Taking a Walk Downtown. Come a Take A Look At One Of The Most Coveted Areas.

37. 2021-09-21
    soldstatus $23,500 Closed
38. 2021-09-06
    historical
39. 2021-09-04
    listed $25,000
40. 2009-08-11
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,460 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,460 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,311
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$2,460
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,945
• − Management: −$1,945
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,556
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,093
• After-tax cash flow: $864/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Alachua

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #188
• US rank: #2996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alachua, FL
• City population: 31,819
• Population (ZIP): 16,244

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.36%
• Current HPI: 280.2476
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1149.5% since first listed

40 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-23 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-24 Price Changed $249,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $264,996 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $264,997 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $264,998 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $266,998 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-22 Price Changed $268,998 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $270,998 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $272,998 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $274,998 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-22 Price Changed $274,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $276,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $277,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-24 Price Changed $278,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $279,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $280,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-09 Listed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $264,000 Public Records
• 2023-11-15 Sold (MLS) $264,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-19 Price Changed $264,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-19 Price Changed $269,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-10 Price Changed $270,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-18 Price Changed $273,899 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-11 Price Changed $285,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-06 Price Changed $289,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-07 Price Changed $294,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-01 Price Changed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-27 Listed $305,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-21 Sold (MLS) $23,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-04 Listed $25,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+32.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,460 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.