635 Holly Ct · Shelton, WA 98584

$275,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,694 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1978 9,148 sqft lot Est $401k · 31% under ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Terrace Heights Shelton Area. 6 Bedroom 3 Bath Home on . 21 acres approximately. Dining Room. Primary Bedroom with Bath. 2 Car Garage. VA Owned.

Key facts

• Dining room
• 9,148 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• DINING ROOM
• PRIMARY BEDROOM WITH BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($476/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (9.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (9.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.1% in Shelton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#203 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: employment D+, crime F, commute F.
• Shelton School District (town): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #237 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mountain View Elementary (676 students, 68% FRL); Shelton High School (1,473 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 299 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mason County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $248,812 (9.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.62%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $401,406
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
635 Holly Ct	0.00mi	6/3.0 (+1)	2,694 (0%)	1mo	$303,000	$112	94
705 Terrace Blvd	0.06mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,396 (-11%)	6mo	$440,000	$184	67
701 N 13th St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,596 (-4%)	15mo	$370,000	$143	47
2526 E Pershing Ct	0.44mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,320 (-14%)	10mo	$480,000	$207	41
1804 Jefferson St	0.60mi	6/2.0 (+1)	2,352 (-13%)	11mo	$350,000	$149	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-41,982
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-33,088
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98584

• Active inventory: 439
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,488 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$369 /mo · $4,431/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$523
• Net cashflow: $40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,438

Max offer price $275,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   listed $275,000 Active
3. 2023-01-19
   soldstatus $349,999 Closed
4. 2022-12-01
   status Pending
5. 2022-11-18
   listed $349,999 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,431 · $369/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,431 · $369/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,857
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,431
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,389
• − Management: −$2,389
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$4,130
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$991
• After-tax cash flow: $1,467/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelton School District
• NCES district ID: 5307900
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $45,467
• Composite: 34.1/100
• National rank: #10288
• State rank: #237 of 291 in WA

Livability — Shelton

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #203
• US rank: #5586

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shelton, WA
• County: Mason County · 40,606 people
• City population: 40,606
• Metro: Shelton, WA
• Population (ZIP): 40,606
• Household income: $78,610
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 687.0

Population outlook (Mason County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 60,005 people
• By 2030: 58,567 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 54,735 · -8.8%
• By 2050: 51,470 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 46,276 · -22.9%
• By 2100: 39,883 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Mason

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.2% · R 49.7% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+6.0 2012: D+6.9 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -232.42%
• Current HPI: 199.0698
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Shelton, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

-21.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Listed $275,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-01-19 Sold (MLS) $349,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-01 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-18 Listed $349,999 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $4,431 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.