107 Hillshire Dr · Leland, NC 28479

$384,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,908 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2010 10,585 sqft lot Est $376k · at est. $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Immaculate low maintenance brick home located in the Mallory Creek neighborhood. This 4 bedroom home boasts an open floor plan, volume ceilings, hardwood floors, large living area with gas fireplace, laundry room and a formal dining area. The eat kitchen comes equipped with a breakfast bar, stainless steel appliances and plenty of counter and cabinet space. The bonus room is ideal for the fourth bedroom or office area. The large master suite features trey ceilings, a walk in closet and dual vanities. The two car garage provides ample storage area. The back patio and large fenced in private / wooded back yard makes this home ideal for family gatherings and outdoor entertaining. Neighborhood amenities include a pool, clubhouse and kids play area. Home does qualify for 100% USDA financing.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Recessed lighting
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• LOW MAINTENANCE BRICK HOME
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PROPANE GAS FIREPLACE
• BREAKFAST BAR
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• RECESSED LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-698 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (32.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (43.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (43.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.2% in Leland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#177 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Brunswick County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #82 of 178 in NC (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belville Elementary (math 51% / reading 49%, grade D+, #409 of 1,410 statewide, top 29%, 726 students, 100% FRL); Leland Middle (math 26% / reading 36%, grade F, #326 of 475 statewide, top 69%, 780 students, 100% FRL); North Brunswick High (math 57% / reading 49%, grade C-, #281 of 535 statewide, top 53%, 1,450 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 53% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,112 units permitted in Brunswick County in 2024 (990 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (1.2% local appreciation)).
• Brunswick County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $238k; list at $385k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,496 (43.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.77%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $375,876
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 Cove Landing Lndg	0.07mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,765 (-8%)	6mo	$393,000	$223	74
543 Heartwood Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5	2,029 (+6%)	1mo	$380,000	$187	73
1002 Sedgley Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,929 (+1%)	2mo	$382,000	$198	72
335 St Kitts Way	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,624 (-15%)	1mo	$381,000	$235	72
376 St Kitts Way	0.23mi	3/2.5	2,069 (+8%)	4mo	$375,000	$181	70
630 Heartwood Dr	0.15mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,128 (+12%)	1mo	$382,500	$180	66
110 Cayman Ct	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,755 (-8%)	4mo	$250,000	$142	60
222 Bimini Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (-13%)	4mo	$344,000	$206	60
734 Pine Cone Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	2,170 (+14%)	5mo	$390,000	$180	60
187 Emberwood Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,968 (+3%)	7mo	$415,000	$211	56
1148 Sandy Heights Loop, Lot 68 Pl	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (-7%)	6mo	$349,999	$197	55
1122 Sandy Heights Loop (lot 72)	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,774 (-7%)	6mo	$333,249	$188	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.23% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-32,958
• Equity at exit: $136,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-8,618
• Equity at exit: $184,537

Cash invested: $107,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28479

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,195 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,018
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,379/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-698

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,079

Max offer price $261,587

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-480	-5% $-589	+0% $-698	+5% $-807	+10% $-916
Rent	-10% $-871	-5% $-785	+0% $-698	+5% $-611	+10% $-525
Rate	-1.0pp $-504	-0.5pp $-600	base $-698	+0.5pp $-798	+1.0pp $-899

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,225
• Closing costs: $11,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
136 N Palm Dr Winnabow, NC	3.0	2.0	1235	$1,850	$1.50	25d	1	0.42mi
136 N Palm Dr Winnabow, NC	3.0	2.0	1235	$1,850	$1.50	15d	1	0.42mi
226 Chambers St Winnabow, NC	3.0	2.0	1312	$2,100	$1.60	25d	1	0.63mi
4756 Scaup Way Winnabow, NC	3.0	2.0	1618	$3,500	$2.16	15d	1	0.94mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $55 · $660/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $384,900 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $384,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $384,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $384,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $384,900 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $384,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,379 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,156 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: +$777/yr (+$65/mo · 32.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,340
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,560
• − Property taxes: −$2,379
• − Insurance: −$1,924
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,107
• − Management: −$2,107
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$11,197
• Taxable loss: −$15,596
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,743
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brunswick County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700420
• Math proficiency: 45% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $47,494
• Composite: 39.23/100
• National rank: #4011
• State rank: #82 of 178 in NC

Livability — Leland

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #177
• US rank: #9158

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leland, NC
• City population: 46,933
• Population (ZIP): 6,971

Population outlook (Brunswick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 152,111 people
• By 2030: 165,705 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 188,494 · +23.9%
• By 2050: 206,228 · +35.6%
• By 2075: 237,876 · +56.4%
• By 2100: 251,451 · +65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 13% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Brunswick

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.9) · D 37.2% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -17.9pp · 2024: -24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.9 2020: R+25.0 2016: R+28.7 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.23%
• Current HPI: 159.4516
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+76.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $384,900 Hive MLS
• 2019-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $238,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-19 Sold (MLS) $237,900 Hive MLS
• 2019-01-29 Listed $237,900 Hive MLS
• 2010-06-01 Sold (MLS) $209,500 Hive MLS
• 2010-03-22 Listed $218,280 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,379 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.