35 Hickory Track Way · Silver Springs Shores, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 5/10 · Moderate
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 108°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 23 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 3 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 4 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +14.8/30.0
- ARV discount +9.6/15.0
- Appreciation +8.0/10.0
- DSCR +4.5/10.0
- Schools +3.6/10.0
- Livability +3.4/5.0
- 1% rule +3.1/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
$183,900
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks MLS
SUPER CUTE AND COZY 2/2 W/ A NEW ROOF, ALMOST ENTIRE INTERIOR HAS BEEN REMODELED BANK APPROVED PRICE OF $25,500K.
Key facts
- Fence enclosed patio
- Jack and jill style
- Newer shed
Tags
Property features AI
Finance
- Financial info: Total monthly fees: $14; Total annual fees: $168; Lease restrictions apply
- HOA & community: Lake Joy HOA with required monthly fee ($14); Association approval required; Pets allowed
Exterior
- Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
- Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
- Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces west; Residential, completed condition; Zoned R1
- Construction: Stucco exterior; Shingle roof; Pillar/Post/Pier foundation; Built on a 0.23-acre lot (80 x 125)
- Exterior features: Rear porch; Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Shed(s); Fruit trees; Paved lot
Interior
- Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
- Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
- Flooring: Carpet; Tile
- Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
- Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
- Interior features: Ceiling fans; Formal dining room (separate); Formal living room (separate); Inside utility
- Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Inside laundry room
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $184k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($604/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (18.7% below list).
- Recommended offer: $149k (18.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
- Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.7% in Silver Springs Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 68/100 on livability (#527 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D, schools F.
- Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Market conditions: Rents flat; 674 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
- Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
- At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 0.2% rent growth), your $51k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
- By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Negotiation context
- Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
- 2 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
- Current owner paid $56k; list at $184k implies a 227% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.81% ✗
- Cap rate
- 6.62%
- Cash-on-cash
- 1.17%
- DSCR
- 1.05
- GRM
- 10.3
CMA / ARV
- ARV (on-the-fly)
- $192,960
- Comps found
- 3
Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oak Court Pass | 0.22mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 888 (-8%) | 21mo | $205,000 | $231 | 55 |
| 9021 SE 79th Avenue Rd | 0.68mi | 2/1.0 | 900 (-6%) | 14mo | $165,000 | $183 | 42 |
| 200 Oak Lane Rd | 0.60mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,089 (+13%) | 17mo | $219,000 | $201 | 31 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
5.93% appreciation · 0.17% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 15.1%
- Equity multiple
- 2.00×
- Total profit
- $51,362
- Equity at exit
- $114,824
- IRR
- 14.4%
- Equity multiple
- 3.74×
- Total profit
- $141,158
- Equity at exit
- $207,555
Cash invested: $51,492 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 34472
- Home prices YoY
- 2.4%
- Rents YoY
- 0.2%
- Active inventory
- 674
- Price-to-rent
- 10.3×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,494 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$964
- Tax from tax record
- −$75 /mo · $902/yr
- Insurance
- −$77
- HOA
- −$14
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$314
- Net cashflow
- $50
Break-even live
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $45,975
- Closing costs
- $5,517
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 8 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 310 Oak Lane Pass Ocala, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 988 | $1,325 | $1.34 | 21d | 1 | 0.48mi |
| 217 Locust Pass Ln Ocala, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1011 | $1,697 | $1.68 | 13d | 1 | 0.96mi |
| 80 Locust Pass Run Ocala, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1003 | $1,595 | $1.59 | 13d | 1 | 1.21mi |
| 2 Ash Dr Ocala, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1083 | $1,750 | $1.62 | 13d | 1 | 1.26mi |
| 62 Pine Trak Ocala, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 832 | $1,250 | $1.50 | 21d | 1 | 1.41mi |
| 58 Pine Trak Unit 104D Ocala, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 832 | $1,050 | $1.26 | 21d | 1 | 1.45mi |
| 7817 Midway Drive Ter Unit A103 Ocala, FL | 1.0 | 1.0 | 729 | $1,300 | $1.78 | 21d | 1 | 1.47mi |
| 12 Spring Loop Ocala, FL | 2.0 | 1.0 | 900 | $1,350 | $1.50 | 13d | 1 | 1.48mi |
HOA detail
- Monthly dues
- $14 · $168/yr
Listing history 15 events
-
2026-06-09status $183,900 Pending 10 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $183,900 Active 10 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $183,900 Active 9 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $183,900 Active 5 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $183,900 Active 4 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $183,900 Active 3 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $183,900 Active 2 DOM
-
2026-05-30price $183,900 Active 1 DOM
-
2026-04-24$185,000 Active
-
2013-12-18soldstatus $56,286
-
2012-10-12soldstatus $26,500 113-char remark
Show marketing remark (113 chars)
SUPER CUTE AND COZY 2/2 W/ A NEW ROOF, ALMOST ENTIRE INTERIOR HAS BEEN REMODELED BANK APPROVED PRICE OF $25,500K.
-
2011-12-20$25,500 113-char remark
Show marketing remark (113 chars)
SUPER CUTE AND COZY 2/2 W/ A NEW ROOF, ALMOST ENTIRE INTERIOR HAS BEEN REMODELED BANK APPROVED PRICE OF $25,500K.
-
2002-08-22soldstatus $48,000
-
1998-07-02soldstatus $37,500
-
1985-01-01soldstatus $71,300
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $902 · $75/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,526 · $127/mo
- Expected delta
- +$624/yr (+$52/mo · 69.2%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 5/10 Major
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $17,932
- − Mortgage interest
- −$10,301
- − Property taxes
- −$902
- − Insurance
- −$920
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,435
- − Management
- −$1,435
- − HOA
- −$168
- − Depreciation
- −$5,350
- Taxable loss
- −$2,578
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$619
- After-tax cash flow
- $1,222/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Marion
- NCES district ID
- 1201260
- Math proficiency
- 42% ▼ -7.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 43% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $40,015
- Composite
- 35.61/100
- National rank
- #4890
- State rank
- #61 of 73 in FL
Livability — Silver Springs Shores
- Score
- 68/100
- State rank
- #527
- US rank
- #9854
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Silver Springs Shores, FL
- County
- Marion County · 315,796 people
- City population
- 34,665
- Metro
- Ocala, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 35,851
- Household income
- $64,208
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 655.0
Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 365,905 people
- By 2030
- 376,768 · +3.0%
- By 2040
- 396,555 · +8.4%
- By 2050
- 412,723 · +12.8%
- By 2075
- 446,090 · +21.9%
- By 2100
- 436,193 · +19.2%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 50% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 3%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
- Foreign-born
- 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
- Languages at home
- 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Marion
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▲ 5.93%
- Current HPI
- 255.0714
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 0.17%
- Metro
- Ocala, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
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| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
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| Retail | 1 | $60B |
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
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Price history
+159.5% since first listed7 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-24 Listed $185,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2013-12-18 Sold (Public Records) $56,286 Public Records
- 2012-10-12 Sold (MLS) $26,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2011-12-20 Listed $25,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
- 2002-08-22 Sold (Public Records) $48,000 Public Records
- 1998-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $37,500 Public Records
- 1985-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $71,300 Public Records
Property tax history
+5.7%/yrLatest (2025): $902 · +34.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…