11 Kim St · Shepherd, TX 77371

$123,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1993 1.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Appreciation +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

1.25 acres with Beautifull Shade trees, fully fenced with room to build; enjoy living in the country on this well appointed property, mfg home offers large covered RV parking, Stoarge shed, Green house all this with 2 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms great covered back patio. Perfect place for FFA students, horses, chickens, goates all welcome! Not forgetting our 4 legged fur-babies welcome! Live on this Large corner lot with gated entrance for ultimate privacy. Sitting on Your back COVERED PORCH/PATIO sipping coffee or adult beverages while listening to rosters or star glazing watching neighbors horses! Come Live in the Country, Shepherd Texas has everything! Quick access to city of New Caney

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Storage shed
• Covered back patio

Tags

• 1.25 ACRES
• FULLY FENCED
• LARGE RV COVERED PARKING
• STORAGE SHED
• GREEN HOUSE
• COVERED BACK PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Carport with 4 spaces; 2-car garage; Additional parking; Driveway parking; Oversized parking; RV access/parking; Boat parking; Workshop area in garage
• Security: Gated with attendant; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1993
• Construction: Metal roof; Construction materials listed as unknown
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Porch (first level) — 12 x 8; Fully fenced backyard with back yard fencing; Paved driveway; Shed(s) / storage; Cleared lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Gas oven and gas range; Oven; Refrigerator; Ice maker
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level) — 15 x 12; Second bedroom (first level) — 15 x 10; Two possible bedrooms total
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Electric fireplace; Hollywood-style bath; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Tub with shower; Ceiling fans; Kitchen/dining combo; Combined living and dining area; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room (first level) — 10 x 12

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $123k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $179 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $123k).
• Recommended offer: $121k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.4% in Shepherd — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,112 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Shepherd ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #770 of 826 in TX (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shepherd Pri (499 students, 85% FRL); Shepherd Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 458 students, 84% FRL); Shepherd H S (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 601 students, 77% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 64% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 575 units permitted in San Jacinto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($850 loan paydown + $203 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• San Jacinto County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,155 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.24%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $8,790
• Equity at exit: $36,735

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $39,655
• Equity at exit: $44,979

Cash invested: $34,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77371

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,304 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$645
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,861/yr
• Insurance: −$51
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,078

Max offer price $123,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $249	-5% $214	+0% $179	+5% $144	+10% $110
Rent	-10% $76	-5% $128	+0% $179	+5% $231	+10% $282
Rate	-1.0pp $241	-0.5pp $210	base $179	+0.5pp $147	+1.0pp $115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,750
• Closing costs: $3,690
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $123,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $123,000 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $123,000 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $123,000 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $123,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $123,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $123,000 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $123,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $123,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    remarks 640-char remark
12. 2026-06-07
    listed $123,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,861 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,251 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: +$390/yr (+$32/mo · 20.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,653
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,890
• − Property taxes: −$1,861
• − Insurance: −$615
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,252
• − Management: −$1,252
• − Depreciation: −$3,578
• Taxable income: $205
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$49
• After-tax cash flow: $2,101/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shepherd ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840020
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,857
• Composite: 17.77/100
• National rank: #9016
• State rank: #770 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shepherd

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1112
• US rank: #19716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shepherd, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,548

Population outlook (San Jacinto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,069 people
• By 2030: 29,750 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 30,714 · +5.7%
• By 2050: 31,010 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 31,616 · +8.8%
• By 2100: 29,874 · +2.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 26% Black 12% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 22%

Political lean MEDSL · San Jacinto

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.3) · D 17.0% · R 82.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.0pp toward R · 2008: -38.3pp · 2024: -65.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.3 2020: R+61.9 2016: R+58.4 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+38.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Current HPI: 201.6618
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+44.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $123,000 HARMLS
• 2020-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-08-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-08-20 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2019-07-29 Pending — HARMLS
• 2019-06-14 Price Changed $80,000 HARMLS
• 2019-05-31 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 1997-05-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,861 · +16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.