Mansion 188 Waterfalls Village Plan · Wanakah, NY 14075

$160,300

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 173 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful front covered porch with sliding glass doors. 3 bedrooms 2 bathroom Coming soon

Key facts

• Front covered porch
• Sliding glass doors
• Listed 173 days

Tags

• FRONT COVERED PORCH
• SLIDING GLASS DOORS

🏗️ New construction. The $160,300 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $79,478.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $834 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.9% vs local median 3.1% in Wanakah — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#508 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Frontier Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #301 of 590 in NY (top 51%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Big Tree Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 540 students, 38% FRL); Frontier Middle School (math 38% / reading 53%, grade D+, #337 of 729 statewide, top 47%, 1,071 students, 34% FRL); Frontier Senior High School (math 97% / reading 95%, grade A+, #68 of 1,100 statewide, top 6%, 1,352 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 264 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $549 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $141,064 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.99%
• DSCR: 3.00
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,478
• List price: $160,300
• Delta: 101.69%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
74 Waterview Pkwy	0.36mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,452 (-0%)	5mo	$80,000	$55	69
40 Brookridge Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	7mo	$75,000	$52	68
15 Waterview Pkwy	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	14mo	$54,900	$38	64
38 Highridge Ter	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,392 (-4%)	16mo	$48,500	$35	57
47 Waterview Pkwy	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,350 (-7%)	13mo	$70,000	$52	51
24 W Canyon Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-7%)	15mo	$103,000	$76	50
37 Brookridge Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-7%)	8mo	$77,700	$57	47
1 N Roxbury Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,372 (-6%)	17mo	$48,000	$35	46
7 Jean Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,274 (-12%)	16mo	$55,000	$43	43
6 Brush Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-9%)	20mo	$35,000	$27	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $44,265
• Equity at exit: $11,850

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.58×
• Total profit: $124,164
• Equity at exit: $6,872

Cash invested: $22,254 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14075

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 264
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,751 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$99 /mo · $1,192/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $834

Break-even live

Break-even rent $695

Max offer price $79,478

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $889	-5% $862	+0% $834	+5% $807	+10% $779
Rent	-10% $696	-5% $765	+0% $834	+5% $903	+10% $973
Rate	-1.0pp $874	-0.5pp $855	base $834	+0.5pp $814	+1.0pp $793

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,869
• Closing costs: $2,384
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4819 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	2.0	2.0	1170	$2,055	$1.76	3d	1	0.93mi
4591 Southwestern Blvd Hamburg, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	737	$1,415	$1.92	3d	12	1.44mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $160,300 Active 173 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,300 Active 170 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,300 Active 169 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $160,300 Active 168 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,300 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,300 Active 165 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,300 Active 162 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,300 Active 161 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,300 Active 160 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,300 Active 159 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,300 Active 156 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,300 Active 155 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $160,300 Active 154 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,300 Active 153 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,300 Active 152 DOM
16. 2025-12-30
    listed $160,300 Active 89-char remark

    Show marketing remark (89 chars)

    Beautiful front covered porch with sliding glass doors. 3 bedrooms 2 bathroom Coming soon

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,452
• − Property taxes: −$1,192
• − Insurance: −$397
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,681
• − Management: −$1,681
• − Depreciation: −$2,312
• Taxable income: $9,300
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,232
• After-tax cash flow: $7,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 5 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add a small outdoor lighting system — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add a small outdoor lighting system — Improves safety and enhances curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frontier Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3611670
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $58,807
• Composite: 47.36/100
• National rank: #2291
• State rank: #301 of 590 in NY

Livability — Wanakah

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #508
• US rank: #8972

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 44,520
• Household income: $83,383
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 824.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -261.10%
• Current HPI: 300.2852
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-30 Listed $160,300 Zillow