1706 McKinley Ave · Bay City, MI 48708

$159,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,324 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1897 7,405 sqft lot Est $135k · 18% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained and fully occupied 2-unit on Bay City's east side currently generating $19,800 gross income per year.

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Strong gross rents
• Cosmetic refresh

Tags

• FULLY OCCUPIED DUPLEX
• FULLY RENOVATED
• COSMETIC REFRESH
• STRONG GROSS RENTS
• SOLID NET OPERATING INCOME
• SHARED ACCESS TO BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Two-unit building; Unit 1 rent: $925; Unit 2 rent: $850; Total expenses: $9,029.50; Net operating income: $12,270.50

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Garage with 1 parking space; Additional parking for 3 or more vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Multi-family property; Two-story structure; Entry levels: Unit 1 on first floor, Unit 2 on second floor; Facing South (side of street: S); Built in 1897
• Construction: Block foundation; Basement foundation (full)
• Exterior features: Porch; Exterior balcony; Sidewalks; Walk-to-school location; Paved city/county street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Range/Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Unit 1 bedrooms on the first floor; Unit 2 bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (total)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas fuel; Ceiling fans; Wall/Window air conditioning; Circuit breaker electrical
• Interior features: Cable/Internet available; Basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-242 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (26.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (32.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $108k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, crime F.
• Bay City School District (urban): math 27% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #317 of 540 in MI (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $121k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1897 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $108,254 (32.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1897 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.49%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $135,048
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1500 6th St	0.19mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,413 (+7%)	2mo	$128,500	$91	72
200 Tuscola Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,288 (-3%)	4mo	$157,500	$122	68
1508 11th St	0.29mi	3/2.5 (+1)	1,242 (-6%)	2mo	$136,000	$110	68
1517 11th St	0.26mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,200 (-9%)	1mo	$143,000	$119	65
413 N Johnson St	0.04mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,167 (-12%)	8mo	$118,900	$102	62
1316 N Trumbull St	0.65mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,312 (-1%)	2mo	$118,303	$90	59
2121 7th St	0.33mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,182 (-11%)	2mo	$175,000	$148	58
251 N Vanburen St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,285 (-3%)	8mo	$95,000	$74	56
2131 7th St	0.37mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,436 (+8%)	6mo	$134,000	$93	54
609 11th St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (-2%)	8mo	$57,000	$44	51
2206 11th St	0.38mi	2/1.0	1,515 (+14%)	7mo	$131,000	$86	48
501 S McLellan St	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,176 (-11%)	4mo	$153,000	$130	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-41,317
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-55,784
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48708

• Home prices YoY: -30.9%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,083 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,305/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$227
• Net cashflow: $-242

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,389

Max offer price $117,137

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-152	-5% $-197	+0% $-242	+5% $-287	+10% $-333
Rent	-10% $-328	-5% $-285	+0% $-242	+5% $-199	+10% $-157
Rate	-1.0pp $-162	-0.5pp $-201	base $-242	+0.5pp $-284	+1.0pp $-326

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1305 Washington Ave Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	635	$1,675	$2.64	44d	1	1.07mi
600 18th St Bay City, MI	2.0	1.0	1000	$950	$0.95	44d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $159,900 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $159,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $159,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 681-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $159,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,305 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,384 · $199/mo
• Expected delta: +$78/yr (+$7/mo · 3.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,990
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,305
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,039
• − Management: −$1,039
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$5,801
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,392
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,513/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay City School District
• NCES district ID: 2604260
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,833
• Composite: 28.47/100
• National rank: #6743
• State rank: #317 of 540 in MI

Livability — Bay City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #8912

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bay City, MI
• County: Bay County · 36,975 people
• City population: 25,635
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• Population (ZIP): 25,635
• Household income: $50,518
• Rent vs Own: 29.9% rent · 70.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 101,476 people
• By 2030: 98,152 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 89,711 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 80,614 · -20.6%
• By 2075: 60,544 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 41,603 · -59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 10% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 42.0% · R 56.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.0pp toward R · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+12.6 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.21%
• Current HPI: 183.5774
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bay City, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+96.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $159,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $121,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-05 Sold (MLS) $121,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-09-11 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-08-07 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records
• 2016-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $67,500 Public Records
• 2003-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $81,558 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,305 · -10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.