33261 Lake Rd · Avon Lake, OH 44012

$174,777

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 868 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1900 0.28 ac lot Est $174k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Schools +7.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is an Administrators Estate Sale, being sold "As Is". It is a cute, cozy, very comfortable 2 bedroom 1 bath fixer upper ranch home located in Avon Lake. Yes, it does have a basement with laundry facilities including As Is washer and dryer. Newer central air, hot water tank, furnace and circuit breakers. There are probably several items that require updating. Pictures show furniture in this ranch home, but all furniture and carpeting have been removed. The house has been power washed outside including the front porch and oversized 2 car garage with workshop. Relaxing living room for entertaining guests and family members. Formal dining room. Breakfast bar between kitchen and D

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1900

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage faces front; Oversized garage; Gravel areas
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces north; Entry on main level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Front porch; Workshop; City lot with few trees

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Accessible full bathroom; Accessible bedroom; Accessible closets; Accessible kitchen; Accessible central living area; Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Storage space
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Electric and gas dryer hookups; Laundry located inside in the basement / lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.2% in Avon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#52 in OH, #736 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: commute F.
• Avon Lake City (suburban): math 78% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #48 of 656 in OH (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 34y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $175k implies a 201% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $174,777

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.31%
• DSCR: 1.19
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,468
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33261 Lake Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	868 (0%)	1mo	$174,777	$201	100

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-17,087
• Equity at exit: $26,060

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-323
• Equity at exit: $15,112

Cash invested: $48,938 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44012

• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,764 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$229 /mo · $2,744/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,542

Max offer price $174,777

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $275	-5% $225	+0% $176	+5% $126	+10% $77
Rent	-10% $36	-5% $106	+0% $176	+5% $246	+10% $315
Rate	-1.0pp $264	-0.5pp $220	base $176	+0.5pp $131	+1.0pp $85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,694
• Closing costs: $5,243
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
181 Somerset Ln Avon Lake, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1042	$1,787	$1.71	3d	14	0.66mi
216 Moore Rd Avon Lake, OH	1.0	1.0	740	$1,250	$1.69	45d	1	0.68mi
407 Rachel Ln Avon Lake, OH	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,850	$1.71	45d	1	0.91mi
455 Rachel Ln Avon Lake, OH	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,670	$1.55	24d	1	0.99mi
33168 Beverly Ln Avon Lake, OH	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,850	$1.71	45d	1	1.01mi
33803 Electric Blvd Unit G10 Avon Lake, OH	2.0	1.5	1001	$1,480	$1.48	17d	1	1.37mi
750 Aqua Marine Blvd Avon Lake, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$2,000	$1.96	3d	11	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $174,777 Active
3. 1992-05-23
   historical
4. 1992-02-08
   listed $79,000
5. 1987-08-18
   soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,744 · $229/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,744 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,790
• − Property taxes: −$2,744
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,694
• − Management: −$1,694
• − Depreciation: −$5,084
• Taxable loss: −$707
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$170
• After-tax cash flow: $2,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Avon Lake City
• NCES district ID: 3904812
• Math proficiency: 78% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,608
• Composite: 69.66/100
• National rank: #296
• State rank: #48 of 656 in OH

Livability — Avon Lake

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #52
• US rank: #736

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avon Lake, OH
• County: Lorain County · 219,437 people
• City population: 25,752
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• Population (ZIP): 25,752
• Household income: $115,567
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 290.0

Population outlook (Lorain County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,924 people
• By 2030: 317,546 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 317,962 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 312,872 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 301,806 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 278,271 · -11.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lorain

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 46.7% · R 52.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.9pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+0.3 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.16%
• Current HPI: 207.1177
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Cleveland-Elyria, OH
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+201.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-01 Listed $174,777 MLSNOW
• 1992-05-23 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 1992-02-08 Listed $79,000 MLSNOW
• 1987-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,744 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.