7560 Forest Hl · Coffee City, TX 75763

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 28 Days on market

Built 2004 $103/sqft · 19% below area Est $142k · 19% under $8/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

7560 Forest Hill - Move in ready home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and an open living room fit for entertaining. But who needs that when you have a large deck and shade filled lot to enjoy? Right around the corner from everything you'll need to start enjoying the lake life with boat ramps, fishing piers and community parks, with nominal dues of $100/yr.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Shade filled lot
• Guest house

Tags

• LARGE DECK
• SHADE FILLED LOT
• GUEST HOUSE
• WORKSHOP
• BOAT RAMPS
• FISHING PIERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.0% in Coffee City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#845 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Brownsboro ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #290 of 826 in TX (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 191 active listings in the ZIP; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 71% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,275 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.86%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $141,848
• List price: $115,000
• Delta: -18.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22604 Brierwood Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,264 (+13%)	11mo	$145,000	$115	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $82,900
• Equity at exit: $103,601

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.09×
• Total profit: $228,161
• Equity at exit: $223,420

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75763

• Home prices YoY: 22.2%
• Active inventory: 191
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,348 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,047/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $945

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $383	-5% $351	+0% $318	+5% $286	+10% $253
Rent	-10% $212	-5% $265	+0% $318	+5% $372	+10% $425
Rate	-1.0pp $376	-0.5pp $348	base $318	+0.5pp $289	+1.0pp $258

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 360-char remark

   Show marketing remark (360 chars)

   7560 Forest Hill - Move in ready home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and an open living room fit for entertaining. But who needs that when you have a large deck and shade filled lot to enjoy? Right around the corner from everything you'll need to start enjoying the lake life with boat ramps, fishing piers and community parks, with nominal dues of $100/yr.

2. 2026-04-08
   listed $115,000 Active 360-char remark

   Show marketing remark (360 chars)

   7560 Forest Hill - Move in ready home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and an open living room fit for entertaining. But who needs that when you have a large deck and shade filled lot to enjoy? Right around the corner from everything you'll need to start enjoying the lake life with boat ramps, fishing piers and community parks, with nominal dues of $100/yr.

3. 2025-05-28
   price $115,000
4. 2019-04-25
   soldstatus
5. 2019-03-25
   listed $59,900
6. 2009-03-10
   soldstatus
7. 2004-08-31
   soldstatus
8. 1993-09-07
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,047 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,104 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,057/yr (+$88/mo · 101.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 71% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,171
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,047
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,294
• − Management: −$1,294
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $2,079
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$499
• After-tax cash flow: $3,322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brownsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811640
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $45,624
• Composite: 37.38/100
• National rank: #4429
• State rank: #290 of 826 in TX

Livability — Coffee City

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #845
• US rank: #15290

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,319

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 53.53%
• Current HPI: 295.14
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+92.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-04-08 Listed $115,000 GTAR
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $115,000 GTAR
• 2019-04-25 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2019-03-25 Listed $59,900 GTAR
• 2009-03-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-09-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,047 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.