2202 Eagle Ct · Venus, TX 76084

$158,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1998 1.18 ac lot Est $245k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 1.18 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1998

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential (Mobile Home); Lot size about 1.18 acres; Accessory unit present; Subdivision: South Forty Estate; County: Johnson
• Financial info: Listing accepts 1031 Exchange, cash, conventional financing
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 covered spaces); Gravel parking
• Utilities: Aerobic septic system; Outside city limits utilities; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Residential mobile home; One level; Accessory unit (200 sq ft)
• Construction: Built in 1998; Siding construction; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Covered porch(es); Storage; Other exterior features; Fenced yard with wire fencing; Large backyard with grass; Located on a cul-de-sac; Easements for utilities

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (primary bedroom on level 1)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; One living area; One dining area; Room count: 2

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $585 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Venus El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 658 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 60% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.3% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.87%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,168
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1417 Pheasant Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,178 (-4%)	4mo	$234,500	$199	84
1930 County Road 213	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,251 (+2%)	12mo	$235,000	$188	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $94,308
• Equity at exit: $112,815

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.50×
• Total profit: $243,461
• Equity at exit: $217,379

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,027 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,466/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $585

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,287

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   listed $158,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,466 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,891 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,425/yr (+$119/mo · 97.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$1,466
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,946
• − Management: −$1,946
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable income: $4,733
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,136
• After-tax cash flow: $5,885/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Venus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844010
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,394
• Composite: 24.97/100
• National rank: #7563
• State rank: #646 of 826 in TX

Livability — Venus

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #356
• US rank: #7724

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $158,000 NTREIS
• 1999-04-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,466 · +15.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.