7125 St Hwy 21 · Caldwell, TX 77836

$199,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Manufactured public records · 48 Days on market

Built 2003 0.60 ac lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a desirable split floor plan and recent updates, including fresh neutral paint, updated bathrooms and a charming farmhouse feel. Appliances are stainless and just over a year old, and the roof was replaced in 2018. The property sits on a generous 0.60-acre lot with a spacious shaded backyard and a large covered side deck for outdoor gatherings. This property blends comfort, convenience, and country living. Conveniently located on Hwy 21, the home offers a short, easy commute to Caldwell or Bryan/College Station for shopping, dining, or entertainment. The home is in Caldwell ISD and is approximately 7–8 miles from Caldwell, 20 minute

Key facts

• Generous lot
• Split floor plan
• Stainless appliances

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• SPACIOUS SHADED BACKYARD
• LARGE COVERED SIDE DECK
• GENEROUS LOT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Water available; Electric service
• Home design: Manufactured home (residential); One story; Single-level entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Laminate countertops; Ceiling fans; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($543/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (17.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (17.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.0% in Caldwell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#497 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Caldwell ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #264 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 315 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Burleson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,158 (17.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.97%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-29,576
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-22,247
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77836

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 315
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,652 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,528/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,594

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,999 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,999 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,999 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,999 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,999 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,999 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,999 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,999 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,999 Active 38 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,999 Active 37 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,999 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,999 Active 32 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,999 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,999 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,999 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    listed $199,999 Active 780-char remark
17. 2022-09-27
    listed $214,900
18. 2007-07-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,528 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,132/yr (+$178/mo · 139.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,528
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,586
• − Management: −$1,586
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$2,901
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$696
• After-tax cash flow: $1,240/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caldwell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812460
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $52,820
• Composite: 38.5/100
• National rank: #4181
• State rank: #264 of 826 in TX

Livability — Caldwell

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #497
• US rank: #9927

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,469

Population outlook (Burleson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,066 people
• By 2030: 18,174 · +0.6%
• By 2040: 18,198 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 18,110 · +0.2%
• By 2075: 18,166 · +0.6%
• By 2100: 16,949 · -6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 10% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.8) · D 18.2% · R 81.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: -37.4pp · 2024: -62.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.8 2020: R+57.6 2016: R+55.1 2012: R+46.0 2008: R+37.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.96%
• Current HPI: 187.5385
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Listed $199,999 BCSRMLS
• 2022-09-27 Listed $214,900 BCSRMLS
• 2007-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+21.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,528 · -23.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.