115 Lillian St · Conroe, TX 77301

$80,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured · 94 Days on market

Built 2025

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Large windows
• Easy access
• Open floorplan

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• ABUNDANCE OF COUNTER SPACE
• LARGE WINDOWS
• EASY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $80,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-section manufactured home (3 Bed 2 Bath Single Section)
• Construction: Living area about 1,120; Spec new construction

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $81k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $627 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $81k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 486 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $559 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.4% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $73,619 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.19%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $24,485
• Equity at exit: $12,062

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.80×
• Total profit: $63,517
• Equity at exit: $6,995

Cash invested: $22,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77301

• Home prices YoY: -8.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 486
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,501 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$424
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$101 /mo · $1,214/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $627

Break-even live

Break-even rent $708

Max offer price $80,900

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $682	-5% $655	+0% $627	+5% $599	+10% $571
Rent	-10% $508	-5% $567	+0% $627	+5% $686	+10% $745
Rate	-1.0pp $667	-0.5pp $647	base $627	+0.5pp $606	+1.0pp $584

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,225
• Closing costs: $2,427
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
115 Lillian St Unit LL115 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,399	$1.25	6d	1	0.04mi
113 Betty St Unit BE113 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,399	$1.15	21d	1	0.47mi
204 Peggy St Unit PG204 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,399	$1.15	21d	1	0.60mi
1619 N Frazier St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	980	$1,309	$1.34	44d	1	0.64mi
1619 N Frazier St Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	824	$1,895	$2.30	8d	10	0.64mi
511 N 3rd St Conroe, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,695	$1.54	4d	1	0.67mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 3047 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,524	$1.18	11d	1	0.70mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 2047 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,103	$1.20	12d	1	0.70mi
605 Kathy St Unit KA605 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,399	$1.15	14d	1	0.71mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 958 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,143	$1.25	11d	1	0.72mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 2162 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,119	$1.22	8d	1	0.72mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,481	$1.14	3d	1	0.72mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 2228 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	917	$1,111	$1.21	3d	1	0.72mi
901 Wilson Rd Unit 934 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,513	$1.17	11d	1	0.72mi
907 Wilson Rd Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,760	$1.36	44d	1	0.75mi
707 N Frazier St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1159	$1,245	$1.07	44d	1	0.77mi
1101 Wilson Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	720	$1,190	$1.65	16d	13	0.87mi
900 Holly Dr Conroe, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,095	$1.29	14d	3	1.07mi
900 Holly Dr Unit 16 Conroe, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,095	$1.29	44d	1	1.07mi
241 Interstate 45 S Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	979	$1,250	$1.28	44d	1	1.21mi
2020 Plantation Dr Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	779	$1,180	$1.51	2d	18	1.24mi
601 Booker T Washington St Conroe, TX	2.0	1.0	864	$1,100	$1.27	44d	1	1.26mi
601 Booker T Washington St Conroe, TX	2.0	1.0	864	$1,089	$1.26	6d	1	1.26mi
2219 N Frazier St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1023	$1,100	$1.08	44d	1	1.28mi
2301 N Frazier St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1042	$1,250	$1.20	44d	1	1.29mi
1900 Westview Blvd Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,320	$1.30	8d	1	1.37mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 1957 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,247	$1.23	14d	1	1.40mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 1933 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,814	$1.53	11d	1	1.40mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 420 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,065	$1.05	11d	1	1.40mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 3047 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,825	$1.54	11d	1	1.40mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 2047 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,076	$1.06	11d	1	1.40mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1182	$1,782	$1.51	3d	1	1.41mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 2228 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,033	$1.02	3d	1	1.41mi
1900 Westview Blvd Unit 2162 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1016	$1,041	$1.02	8d	1	1.41mi
1206 North Loop 336 W Conroe, TX	2.0	1.0	788	$1,188	$1.51	44d	1	1.43mi
231 Interstate 45 N Unit 288 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	880	$1,127	$1.28	3d	1	1.44mi
1200 North Loop 336 W Unit 2162 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	788	$1,039	$1.32	8d	1	1.46mi
1200 North Loop 336 W Unit 426 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	788	$1,063	$1.35	11d	1	1.46mi
1200 North Loop 336 W Unit 1233 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,353	$1.23	11d	1	1.46mi
1200 North Loop 336 W Unit 3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,321	$1.20	3d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,900 Active 94 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,900 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,900 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $80,900 Active 91 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,532
• − Property taxes: −$1,214
• − Insurance: −$404
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,441
• − Management: −$1,441
• − Depreciation: −$2,353
• Taxable income: $6,625
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,590
• After-tax cash flow: $5,929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,769
• Household income: $66,475
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1256.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 31% Two or more races 19% Black 13% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.51%
• Current HPI: 278.6662
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B