921 Davidson Dr · Roswell, NM 88203

$138,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 116 Days on market

Built 1953 7,906 sqft lot $114/sqft · 63% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming home with inviting character throughout. The living room has a large picture window that fills the space with natural light and opens into a bright kitchen and dining area, making it ideal for everyday living. Step out back to a covered patio perfect for grilling, relaxing, or enjoying the outdoors. A fenced in backyard offers plenty of space and includes a storage shed for added convenience. Mature trees in front and back providing shade and a welcoming setting. Solar panels add extra value by helping reduce utility costs. Come tour this home and see if it could be a good fit for you.

Key facts

• Large picture window
• Fenced in backyard
• Covered patio

Tags

• LARGE PICTURE WINDOW
• COVERED PATIO
• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• MATURE TREES
• SOLAR PANELS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $200 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $126k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#8 in NM, #4,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Roswell Independent Schools (town): math 11% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #16 of 29 in NM (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Missouri Ave Elementary (math 12% / reading 57%, grade F, #46 of 68 statewide, top 67%, 301 students, 100% FRL); Mesa Middle (math 6% / reading 41%, grade F, #22 of 27 statewide, top 81%, 422 students, 100% FRL); Roswell High (math 11% / reading 30%, grade F, #97 of 110 statewide, top 88%, 1,438 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: 181 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 88 units permitted in Chaves County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $958 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,035 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.19%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $85,087
• List price: $138,500
• Delta: 62.77%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
903 Davidson Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,215 (0%)	8mo	$75,000	$62	90

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-9,768
• Equity at exit: $20,651

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $7,658
• Equity at exit: $11,975

Cash invested: $38,780 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88203

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 181
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,308 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$726
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $588/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $200

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,054

Max offer price $138,500

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $278	-5% $239	+0% $200	+5% $161	+10% $121
Rent	-10% $97	-5% $148	+0% $200	+5% $252	+10% $303
Rate	-1.0pp $270	-0.5pp $235	base $200	+0.5pp $164	+1.0pp $127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,625
• Closing costs: $4,155
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1002 W Deming St Roswell, NM	2.0	1.0	792	$1,050	$1.33	45d	1	0.25mi
1303 W Bonita Dr Roswell, NM	2.0	1.0	840	$875	$1.04	45d	1	0.37mi
1014 Plaza del Sol Roswell, NM	2.0	2.0	1150	$1,275	$1.11	45d	1	0.63mi
1049 W Poe St Roswell, NM	2.0	1.5	1413	$1,200	$0.85	45d	1	1.17mi
613 S Hemlock Ave Roswell, NM	3.0	1.0	1078	$1,150	$1.07	45d	1	1.27mi
208 W 8th St Unit 003 Roswell, NM	2.0	1.0	850	$900	$1.06	45d	1	1.42mi
2703 S Onyx Dr Roswell, NM	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,900	$1.36	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $138,500 Active 116 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $138,500 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $138,500 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $138,500 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $138,500 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $138,500 Active 110 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $138,500 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $138,500 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $138,500 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $138,500 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $138,500 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $138,500 Active 99 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $138,500 Active 98 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $138,500 Active 97 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $138,500 Active 96 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $138,500 Active 95 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $138,500 Active 94 DOM
18. 2026-02-25
    listed $138,500 Active 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    Charming home with inviting character throughout. The living room has a large picture window that fills the space with natural light and opens into a bright kitchen and dining area, making it ideal for everyday living. Step out back to a covered patio perfect for grilling, relaxing, or enjoying the outdoors. A fenced in backyard offers plenty of space and includes a storage shed for added convenience. Mature trees in front and back providing shade and a welcoming setting. Solar panels add extra value by helping reduce utility costs. Come tour this home and see if it could be a good fit for you.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $588 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,108 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$520/yr (+$43/mo · 88.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,690
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,758
• − Property taxes: −$588
• − Insurance: −$692
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,255
• − Management: −$1,255
• − Depreciation: −$4,029
• Taxable income: $112
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$27
• After-tax cash flow: $2,372/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roswell Independent Schools
• NCES district ID: 3502250
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▲ 23.00%
• Median HH income: $38,848
• Composite: 26.21/100
• National rank: #7262
• State rank: #16 of 29 in NM

Livability — Roswell

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #8
• US rank: #4339

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Roswell, NM
• County: Chaves County · 56,277 people
• City population: 56,277
• Metro: Roswell, NM
• Population (ZIP): 28,753
• Household income: $42,207
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 995.0

Population outlook (Chaves County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,122 people
• By 2030: 66,351 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 66,818 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 66,928 · +1.2%
• By 2075: 65,474 · -1.0%
• By 2100: 58,943 · -10.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 65% White 31% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 38%

Political lean MEDSL · Chaves

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.8) · D 26.8% · R 71.6% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.2pp toward R · 2008: -24.7pp · 2024: -44.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.8 2020: R+41.3 2016: R+36.4 2012: R+32.4 2008: R+24.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.30%
• Current HPI: 151.1401
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Roswell, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-25 Listed $138,500 NMMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $588 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.