1200 W Winton Ave #81 · Hayward, CA 94545

$264,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 80 Days on market

Built 2005 $245/sqft · 32% above area Est $201k · 32% over ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Manufactured home in Hayward Mobile Country Club (adult community 55+) has: 2 bedrooms; 2 full baths; 2 cell clear story skylight in living room; vaulted ceilings throughout; galley style kitchen; primary bedroom with private bath and walk in closet; indoor laundry room with washer and dryer included; relaxing front porch; 1 shed and more, this home is ready for it's new owners to enjoy!

Key facts

• Private bath
• Walk in closet
• Indoor laundry room

Tags

• CLEAR STORY SKYLIGHT
• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATH
• WALK IN CLOSET
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• RELAXING FRONT PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $871 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $265k).
• Recommended offer: $249k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.1% in Hayward — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#124 in CA, #4,294 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Hayward Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #935 of 1,400 in CA (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Eden Gardens Elementary (481 students, 59% FRL); Anthony W. Ochoa Middle (407 students, 77% FRL); Mt. Eden High (1,947 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($249k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $249,006 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.09%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,932
• List price: $264,900
• Delta: 31.84%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1200 W Winton Ave #81	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,080 (0%)	0mo	$264,900	$245	100
1200 W Winton Ave #86	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,090 (+1%)	1mo	$280,000	$257	96
1200 W Winton #145	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,119 (+4%)	6mo	$300,000	$268	87
1200 W Winton Ave #90	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,010 (-6%)	2mo	$265,000	$262	84
1150 W Winton Ave #229	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,140 (+6%)	2mo	$177,000	$155	82
1200 W Winton Ave #224	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-7%)	6mo	$205,000	$205	80
1200 W Winton Ave. #233 #233	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,120 (+4%)	21mo	$138,000	$123	74
1200 W Winton Ave #176	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (-4%)	16mo	$165,000	$159	70
1200 W Winton #49	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+7%)	21mo	$280,000	$243	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $11,208
• Equity at exit: $39,497

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $75,782
• Equity at exit: $22,904

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94545

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,072 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$645
• Net cashflow: $871

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,969

Max offer price $264,900

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,021	-5% $946	+0% $871	+5% $796	+10% $721
Rent	-10% $628	-5% $749	+0% $871	+5% $992	+10% $1,113
Rate	-1.0pp $1,004	-0.5pp $938	base $871	+0.5pp $802	+1.0pp $732

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
946 Hohener Ave Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1434	$3,600	$2.51	16d	1	0.59mi
936 Lucia Ct Hayward, CA	3.0	1.0	1350	$2,875	$2.13	6d	1	0.72mi
25000 Copa del Oro Dr #201 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	855	$3,000	$3.51	45d	1	0.80mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22850 Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1247	$4,095	$3.28	0d	1	0.83mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22846 Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1053	$3,795	$3.60	0d	1	0.83mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22854 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	748	$3,195	$4.27	45d	1	0.83mi
22846 Nevada Rd Unit 22856 Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	744	$3,995	$5.37	0d	1	0.83mi
694 Tehama Ave Hayward, CA	3.0	1.5	1136	$3,300	$2.90	0d	1	0.87mi
21600 Westpark St Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$1,795	$2.56	45d	1	0.94mi
22211 S Garden Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,145	$2.38	6d	2	1.00mi
25800 Industrial Blvd Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$2,893	$3.53	0d	9	1.01mi
22230 S Garden Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,500	$3.57	6d	1	1.03mi
1172 Huron Ln Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1290	$5,000	$3.88	23d	1	1.14mi
1256 Stanhope Ln Hayward, CA	1.0	1.0	748	$2,650	$3.54	45d	1	1.20mi
22078 Arbor Ave Hayward Acres, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	649	$2,140	$3.29	22d	1	1.22mi
21944 Arbor Ave Hayward, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$2,895	$3.62	45d	1	1.25mi
466 Mackenzie Pl Hayward, CA	3.0	2.0	1173	$3,900	$3.32	26d	1	1.25mi
280 Flint Ct Hayward Acres, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,250	$3.21	4d	1	1.32mi
1098 Azalea Ct Hayward, CA	3.0	2.5	1332	$3,500	$2.63	0d	1	1.33mi
24650 Amador St Hayward, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	822	$2,788	$3.39	0d	15	1.35mi
24660 Amador St Hayward, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$2,600	$4.16	1d	3	1.38mi
894 Blaine Way Unit ADU Hayward, CA	2.0	2.0	850	$2,700	$3.18	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 391-char remark

   Show marketing remark (391 chars)

   Manufactured home in Hayward Mobile Country Club (adult community 55+) has: 2 bedrooms; 2 full baths; 2 cell clear story skylight in living room; vaulted ceilings throughout; galley style kitchen; primary bedroom with private bath and walk in closet; indoor laundry room with washer and dryer included; relaxing front porch; 1 shed and more, this home is ready for it's new owners to enjoy!

2. 2026-05-05
   price $264,900 391-char remark

   Show marketing remark (391 chars)

   Manufactured home in Hayward Mobile Country Club (adult community 55+) has: 2 bedrooms; 2 full baths; 2 cell clear story skylight in living room; vaulted ceilings throughout; galley style kitchen; primary bedroom with private bath and walk in closet; indoor laundry room with washer and dryer included; relaxing front porch; 1 shed and more, this home is ready for it's new owners to enjoy!

3. 2026-03-12
   status Active 391-char remark

   Show marketing remark (391 chars)

   Manufactured home in Hayward Mobile Country Club (adult community 55+) has: 2 bedrooms; 2 full baths; 2 cell clear story skylight in living room; vaulted ceilings throughout; galley style kitchen; primary bedroom with private bath and walk in closet; indoor laundry room with washer and dryer included; relaxing front porch; 1 shed and more, this home is ready for it's new owners to enjoy!

4. 2026-02-23
   status Pending 391-char remark

   Show marketing remark (391 chars)

   Manufactured home in Hayward Mobile Country Club (adult community 55+) has: 2 bedrooms; 2 full baths; 2 cell clear story skylight in living room; vaulted ceilings throughout; galley style kitchen; primary bedroom with private bath and walk in closet; indoor laundry room with washer and dryer included; relaxing front porch; 1 shed and more, this home is ready for it's new owners to enjoy!

5. 2026-02-09
   listed $269,900 Active 391-char remark

   Show marketing remark (391 chars)

   Manufactured home in Hayward Mobile Country Club (adult community 55+) has: 2 bedrooms; 2 full baths; 2 cell clear story skylight in living room; vaulted ceilings throughout; galley style kitchen; primary bedroom with private bath and walk in closet; indoor laundry room with washer and dryer included; relaxing front porch; 1 shed and more, this home is ready for it's new owners to enjoy!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $675 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,013 · $168/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,338/yr (+$111/mo · 198.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,859
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,949
• − Management: −$2,949
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable income: $6,417
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,540
• After-tax cash flow: $8,909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hayward Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616740
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,326
• Composite: 31.27/100
• National rank: #11241
• State rank: #935 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Hayward

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #4294

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hayward, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 191,800
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 32,843
• Household income: $114,356
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 42% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 12% White 10% Black 8% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Russian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 43% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 26% Tagalog/Filipino 14% Chinese 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -974.17%
• Current HPI: 304.698
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-1.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $264,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-12 Relisted — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-23 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-09 Listed $269,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $675 · -1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.