4014 Sagefield Dr · St. Cloud, FL 34773

$424,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,202 sqft · Land · 141 Days on market

Built 2025 6,098 sqft lot $68/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks

NOW OFFERING 4.99!!! MOVE IN READY TWO-STORY 4 BEDROOM, 2.5 BATH ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME WITH A SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR PLAN. THE OPEN KITCHEN FEATURES GRANIT COUNTERTOPS, TALL UPPER CABINETS, STAINLESS STEEL WHIRLPOOL APPLIANCES, AND A LARGE ISLAND WITH SEATING FOR SIX, OVERLOOKING A GENEROUS FAMILY ROOM, PERFECT FOR ENTERTAINING. ALL BEDROOMS ARE UPSTAIRS WITH GREAT NATURAL LIGHT. ARCHITECTURAL DETAILS INCLUDE 5 1/4 INCH BASEBOARDS AND ARCHED TWO PANEL CLOSET DOORS. INCLUDES A 10YR STRUCTURAL WARRANTY PLUS BUILDER & MANUFACTURER WARRANTIES. CONVENIENT ACCESS TO MAJOR ROADS, SHOPPING, DINING, MEDICAL FACILITIES, SCHOOLS & MORE. AS A BONUS JUST A 40MIN DRIVE TO THE BEACH. ALL WHILE MA

Key facts

• Tall upper cabinets
• Granite countertops
• Open kitchen

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
• SPACIOUS OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• OPEN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TALL UPPER CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Beth Conner) — $68 monthly

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (18 x 19)
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Completed/new construction; Two levels; Faces east
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; New construction
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Canal view

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; In-wall pest system; Walk-in closets; Wet bar
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $425k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-769 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $314k (26.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $283k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harmony Community School (math 70% / reading 64%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 1,012 students, 38% FRL); Narcoossee Middle School (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #175 of 571 statewide, top 31%, 1,371 students, 46% FRL); Harmony High School (math 40% / reading 46%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,822 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 60% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 55% at this address vs 42% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Osceola average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 388 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $955 of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-2k appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($374k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $282,903 (33.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.76%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.47% appreciation · 1.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-73,987
• Equity at exit: $113,557

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-95,286
• Equity at exit: $128,891

Cash invested: $118,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34773

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 388
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,829 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,228
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$531 /mo · $6,374/yr
• Insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$594
• Net cashflow: $-769

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,803

Max offer price $313,559

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-476	-5% $-623	+0% $-769	+5% $-916	+10% $-1,063
Rent	-10% $-993	-5% $-881	+0% $-769	+5% $-658	+10% $-546
Rate	-1.0pp $-555	-0.5pp $-661	base $-769	+0.5pp $-880	+1.0pp $-992

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $106,225
• Closing costs: $12,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3963 Sagefield Dr Harmony, FL	3.0	2.0	1673	$2,600	$1.55	25d	1	0.05mi
4480 Sagefield Dr Harmony, FL	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,300	$1.26	25d	1	0.16mi
4224 Sagefield Dr Harmony, FL	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,590	$1.08	6d	1	0.23mi
4592 Sagefield Dr Harmony, FL	4.0	2.0	1820	$2,500	$1.37	25d	1	0.29mi
3687 Sagefield Dr Harmony, FL	4.0	2.5	2335	$2,350	$1.01	25d	1	0.40mi
3669 Sagefield Dr Harmony, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,300	$1.52	25d	1	0.42mi
7129 Red Lantern Dr Unit 7129 Harmony, FL	3.0	2.5	1855	$2,200	$1.19	5d	1	1.40mi
3509 Clay Brick Rd Harmony, FL	4.0	2.5	2085	$2,550	$1.22	25d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $424,900 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $424,900 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $424,900 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $424,900 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $424,900 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $424,900 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $424,900 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $424,900 Active 129 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $424,900 Active 128 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $424,900 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $424,900 Active 124 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $424,900 Active 123 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $424,900 Active 122 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $424,900 Active 121 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $424,900 Active 120 DOM
16. 2026-03-13
    price $424,900
17. 2026-01-31
    listed $416,900 Active
18. 2024-03-01
    soldstatus $8,275,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,948
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,801
• − Property taxes: −$6,374
• − Insurance: −$2,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,716
• − Management: −$2,716
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$12,361
• Taxable loss: −$16,959
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,070
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Cloud

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Osceola County · 410,217 people
• City population: 29,247
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,816
• Household income: $80,524
• Rent vs Own: 10.2% rent · 89.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 47.0

Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 20%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.47%
• Current HPI: 279.5662
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.79%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-94.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $424,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-31 Listed $416,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,275,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+138.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $831 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.