7030 Mount Chestnut Rd · Cave Spring, VA 24018

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1950 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Vacant.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 8 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1950
• Construction: Built in 1950
• Exterior features: Front porch; 1-acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air electric heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 3.4% in Cave Spring — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#113 in VA, #3,513 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Roanoke County Public School District (suburban): math 71% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #9 of 131 in VA (top 7%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Back Creek Elementary (math 77% / reading 82%, grade A, #141 of 1,108 statewide, top 14%, 294 students, 24% FRL); Cave Spring Middle (math 76% / reading 82%, grade A+, #29 of 342 statewide, top 9%, 765 students, 30% FRL); Cave Spring High (math 86% / reading 90%, grade A, #13 of 319 statewide, top 4%, 1,056 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 360 units permitted in Roanoke County in 2024 (228 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Roanoke County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $86k; list at $175k implies a 105% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $175,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.29%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,460
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $26,180
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24018

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 333
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,904 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,613/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$400
• Net cashflow: $379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,424

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-18
   listed $175,000 Active
2. 2013-05-12
   historical
3. 2013-02-14
   listed $152,950
4. 2005-01-01
   soldstatus $85,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,613 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,613 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,849
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,613
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,828
• − Management: −$1,828
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,812
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$435
• After-tax cash flow: $4,115/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roanoke County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103330
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,526
• Composite: 64.08/100
• National rank: #578
• State rank: #9 of 131 in VA

Livability — Cave Spring

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #113
• US rank: #3513

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Roanoke County · 67,305 people
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,720
• Household income: $90,885
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 495.0

Population outlook (Roanoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,162 people
• By 2030: 99,793 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 101,965 · +3.9%
• By 2050: 103,328 · +5.3%
• By 2075: 108,641 · +10.7%
• By 2100: 104,845 · +6.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Asian 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Roanoke

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.5) · D 38.2% · R 60.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: -21.1pp · 2024: -22.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.5 2020: R+21.8 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+25.6 2008: R+21.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -266.18%
• Current HPI: 176.0558
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.88%
• Metro: Roanoke, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+104.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $175,000 MLSRV
• 2013-05-12 Listing Removed — MLSRV
• 2013-02-14 Listed $152,950 MLSRV
• 2005-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $85,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,613 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.