102 Longvue Ln · Northville, NY 12134

$450,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2008 1.05 ac lot $309/sqft · 33% below area Est $673k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Want a year round ranch house with 10' Lake Access on Great Sacandaga Lake a short walk away on about 1.05 acres with fantastic sunset views of the lake and mountains? Look no further and check out this one story ranch house with a large yard and pavilion/pole barn for entertaining or storage. The house has hardwood floors and is perfect for one story living and was built in 2008. Cozy up by the gas fireplace in the living room and enjoy the warmth and ambiance. The roof is new in 2024. Air conditioning is provided by a minisplit in the dining room and cools the living room, dining room and kitchen. There is Trex decking on the porch and deck. 2 parcels are being sold-46.16-1-6 and 46.16-

Key facts

• Pavilion
• Large yard
• Gas fireplace

Tags

• LAKE ACCESS
• LARGE YARD
• PAVILION
• GAS FIREPLACE
• NEW ROOF
• TREX DECKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is approximately 1.05 acres with level areas, road frontage, sloped sections, views, and a corner-lot location

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; Driveway; Storage; Total of 8 parking spaces
• Utilities: Circuit breaker electrical; Septic tank sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Waterfront with deeded water access to Great Sacandaga Lake (permit required)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Porch; RV/boat storage; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven; Gas oven; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first level
• Flooring: Tile; Hardwood; Marble
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the first level
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Propane fuel; Cooling system (other)
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Paddle fan; Full basement; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (54.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (52.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (54.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#759 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Northville Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #500 of 755 in NY (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northville Elementary School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade C+, #842 of 2,108 statewide, top 43%, 175 students, 55% FRL); Northville High School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,060 of 1,100 statewide, top 97%, 256 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 112 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $450k implies a 1264% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $202,967 (54.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.32%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 17.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $672,997
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: -33.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $156,047
• Equity at exit: $405,396

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.20×
• Total profit: $529,631
• Equity at exit: $874,251

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12134

• Home prices YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 17.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,160 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$558 /mo · $6,692/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-1,398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,930

Max offer price $202,967

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,144	-5% $-1,271	+0% $-1,398	+5% $-1,526	+10% $-1,653
Rent	-10% $-1,569	-5% $-1,484	+0% $-1,398	+5% $-1,313	+10% $-1,228
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,172	-0.5pp $-1,284	base $-1,398	+0.5pp $-1,515	+1.0pp $-1,634

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $450,000 Pending 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $450,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $450,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $450,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $450,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-05-12
    listed $450,000 Active 787-char remark
14. 2020-07-22
    historical
15. 2020-03-18
    price $304,900
16. 2019-09-19
    historical
17. 2019-09-18
    listed $319,900 New
18. 2019-05-25
    price $329,900
19. 2019-05-01
    status Active - 48Hr Contingency
20. 2019-04-01
    status Pend (Under Cntr)
21. 2019-03-18
    listed $339,900 New
22. 2019-03-15
    historical
23. 2018-12-01
    listed $339,900 New
24. 2018-12-01
    historical
25. 2018-10-12
    price $339,000
26. 2018-08-11
    price $385,000
27. 2016-11-27
    price $398,000
28. 2015-11-22
    status Active
29. 2015-11-21
    historical
30. 2015-09-09
    listed $409,000 Active
31. 2002-09-10
    soldstatus $33,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,692 · $558/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,149 · $596/mo
• Expected delta: +$456/yr (+$38/mo · 6.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$6,692
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,074
• − Management: −$2,074
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$25,464
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,111
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,669/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3621300
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,564
• Composite: 43.1/100
• National rank: #6626
• State rank: #500 of 755 in NY

Livability — Northville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #759
• US rank: #14567

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,093

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,132 people
• By 2030: 49,114 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 44,373 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 39,321 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 28,503 · -44.3%
• By 2100: 19,268 · -62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 6%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 32.1% · R 67.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+31.4 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 25.95%
• Current HPI: 358.0334
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1263.6% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $450,000 Global MLS
• 2020-07-22 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2020-03-18 Price Changed $304,900 Global MLS
• 2019-09-19 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2019-09-18 Listed $319,900 Global MLS
• 2019-05-25 Price Changed $329,900 Global MLS
• 2019-05-01 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2019-04-01 Pending — Global MLS
• 2019-03-18 Listed $339,900 Global MLS
• 2019-03-15 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2018-12-01 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2018-12-01 Listed $339,900 Global MLS
• 2018-10-12 Price Changed $339,000 Global MLS
• 2018-08-11 Price Changed $385,000 Global MLS
• 2016-11-27 Price Changed $398,000 Global MLS
• 2015-11-22 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2015-11-21 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2015-09-09 Listed $409,000 Global MLS
• 2002-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $33,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,692 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.