79 California St · Buffalo, NY 14213

$169,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,766 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1920 1,750 sqft lot Est $313k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT POTENTIAL FAMILY HOME OR INCOME PRODUCER SPACIOUS 4 BR NEEDS UPDATES REPAIRS CASH REAHB MTG ONLY

Key facts

• New furnace
• Remodeled bathroom
• Remodeled kitchen

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW FURNACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family residence
• Construction: Built in 1920; Living area approximately 1766
• Exterior features: Property built in 1920

Interior

• Interior features: Located in the Grant Ferry subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $488 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 8.0% in Buffalo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 137 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $4k; list at $170k implies a 4256% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $167,351 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.31%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $312,582
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
655 Prospect Ave	0.61mi	4/2.5	1,754 (-1%)	2mo	$310,000	$177	63
20 Chenango St	0.57mi	4/1.5	1,824 (+3%)	8mo	$175,000	$96	59
237 Normal Ave	0.54mi	4/1.5	1,704 (-4%)	11mo	$185,000	$109	58
603 W Utica St	0.29mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,600 (-9%)	11mo	$122,000	$76	57
49 Massachusetts Ave	0.47mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,672 (-5%)	8mo	$140,000	$84	56
419 Normal Ave	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,994 (+13%)	11mo	$377,000	$189	56
397 14th St	0.25mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,519 (-14%)	10mo	$270,000	$178	52
254 Hoyt St	0.75mi	4/1.5	1,866 (+6%)	4mo	$403,000	$216	50
362 W Delavan Ave Unit N	0.74mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,776 (+1%)	10mo	$322,500	$182	49
210 Congress St	0.71mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,636 (-7%)	5mo	$192,000	$117	43
15 Greenwood Pl	0.58mi	4/2.5	1,987 (+12%)	10mo	$425,000	$214	38
192 Congress St	0.69mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,505 (-15%)	3mo	$155,000	$103	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.51% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $90,174
• Equity at exit: $123,479

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.80×
• Total profit: $228,194
• Equity at exit: $239,949

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14213

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,893 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $555/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,276

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
405 W Ferry St Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2480	$1,500	$0.60	44d	1	0.41mi
161 16th St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$2,000	$1.33	23d	1	0.54mi
83 Baynes St Unit Lower Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2550	$1,850	$0.73	14d	1	0.54mi
501 West Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2552	$1,700	$0.67	14d	1	0.55mi
501 West Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2552	$1,850	$0.72	20d	1	0.55mi
311 Herkimer St #1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1272	$1,400	$1.10	14d	1	0.58mi
40 Putnam St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	23d	1	0.59mi
184 14th St Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1950	$4,400	$2.26	23d	1	0.62mi
124 Normal Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1727	$2,000	$1.16	23d	1	0.74mi
330 Bryant St Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	2224	$2,200	$0.99	20d	1	0.80mi
118 Ashland Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1326	$1,850	$1.40	14d	1	0.83mi
740 Elmwood Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2000	$1,995	$1.00	14d	1	0.90mi
550 Busti Ave Unit 2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1638	$1,500	$0.92	44d	1	0.96mi
100 Forest Ave Buffalo, NY	2.0–4.0	2.0–4.0	1304	$2,560	$1.96	1d	14	1.08mi
836 Richmond Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	3.5	1982	$4,500	$2.27	44d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $169,900 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $174,900 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $189,900 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,900 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,900 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-24
    listed $214,900 Active
18. 2009-12-21
    soldstatus $3,900 102-char remark

    Show marketing remark (102 chars)

    GREAT POTENTIAL FAMILY HOME OR INCOME PRODUCER SPACIOUS 4 BR NEEDS UPDATES REPAIRS CASH REAHB MTG ONLY

19. 2009-09-04
    listed $4,900 102-char remark

    Show marketing remark (102 chars)

    GREAT POTENTIAL FAMILY HOME OR INCOME PRODUCER SPACIOUS 4 BR NEEDS UPDATES REPAIRS CASH REAHB MTG ONLY

20. 1997-12-15
    soldstatus $43,000
21. 1997-07-01
    soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $555 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,713 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,158/yr (+$97/mo · 208.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,722
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$555
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,818
• − Management: −$1,818
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $3,222
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$773
• After-tax cash flow: $5,081/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buffalo City School District
• NCES district ID: 3605850
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,665
• Composite: 33.17/100
• National rank: #5544
• State rank: #535 of 590 in NY

Livability — Buffalo

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #195
• US rank: #3011

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buffalo, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 440,021
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 24,107
• Household income: $53,870
• Rent vs Own: 60.5% rent · 39.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1501.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 18% Asian 12% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 16% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Philippines, Canada, India
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Asian/Pacific 7% Arabic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Current HPI: 448.4879
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.49%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1435.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $214,900 FSBO.com
• 2009-12-21 Sold (MLS) $3,900 WNYREIS
• 2009-09-04 Listed $4,900 WNYREIS
• 1997-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $43,000 Public Records
• 1997-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $555 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.