2537 29th Ln E · Palmetto, FL 34221

$399,999

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,350 sqft · SingleFamily · 88 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 4,680 sqft lot Garage $83/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Explore this dynamic Pine home, ready for quick move-in. Included features: a covered front porch; a full bedroom and bathroom off the entry; an inviting great room; a corner kitchen boasting a center island, a large walk-in pantry, and an adjacent nook; an airy loft; a thoughtfully designed primary suite showcasing a spacious walk-in closet and a private bath with double sinks; three secondary bedrooms; a shared bath with double sinks; an upstairs laundry; and a cheerful covered patio with center-meet sliding glass doors. Tour today!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Large loft
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETRY
• LARGE LOFT
• GENEROUS STORAGE SOLUTIONS

🏗️ New construction. The $399,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $411,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $400k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-622 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $321k (19.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (27.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#346 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blackburn Elementary School (math 62% / reading 42%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 551 students, 78% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1452 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 47d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $291,245 (27.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.49%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $411,000
• List price: $399,999
• Delta: -2.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2509 29th Ln E	0.04mi	5/3.0	2,350 (0%)	1mo	$419,999	$179	97
2451 29th Ln E	0.08mi	5/3.0	2,350 (0%)	1mo	$412,999	$176	95
2516 29th Ln E	0.12mi	5/3.0	2,350 (0%)	0mo	$419,999	$179	94
2430 29th Ln E	0.34mi	5/3.0	2,350 (0%)	3mo	$409,999	$174	81
2447 29th Ln E	0.08mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,170 (-8%)	3mo	$402,000	$185	76
2508 29th Ln E	0.12mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,170 (-8%)	3mo	$417,999	$193	74
2505 29th Ln E	0.05mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,130 (-9%)	3mo	$399,999	$188	72
2512 29th Ln E	0.12mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,130 (-9%)	3mo	$416,999	$196	70
2416 29th Ln E	0.16mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,130 (-9%)	2mo	$399,999	$188	69
2102 28th Street Ct E	0.37mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,432 (+4%)	0mo	$555,000	$228	68
2318 29th Ave E	0.39mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,202 (-6%)	1mo	$350,000	$159	63
3151 Hopewell Ave	0.56mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,333 (-1%)	1mo	$412,000	$177	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-114,687
• Equity at exit: $61,281

10-year hold

• IRR: -55.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-183,518
• Equity at exit: $35,536

Cash invested: $115,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 30 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 11.2 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $394,999 ($182/sqft)
• Median days on market: 134 d
• This list price: 70% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1452
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,912 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,155
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$514 /mo · $6,165/yr
• Insurance: −$171
• HOA: −$83
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$612
• Net cashflow: $-622

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,700

Max offer price $320,924

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-338	-5% $-480	+0% $-622	+5% $-765	+10% $-907
Rent	-10% $-853	-5% $-738	+0% $-622	+5% $-507	+10% $-392
Rate	-1.0pp $-416	-0.5pp $-518	base $-622	+0.5pp $-729	+1.0pp $-837

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $102,750
• Closing costs: $12,330
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3616 Mossy Limb Ct Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	2068	$2,500	$1.21	61d	1	1.26mi
4042 Wayfarer Way Palmetto, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,500	$1.37	47d	1	1.32mi
2524 6th Ct E Ellenton, FL	4.0	3.0	2286	$2,650	$1.16	27d	1	1.43mi
2654 6th Ct E Ellenton, FL	4.0	2.0	1922	$2,474	$1.29	27d	1	1.49mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre (approx. 0.1 acres)Lot size approx. 0.1 acres (435 sq meters)Builder license CBC1258254Permit number BLD2508-3670
• HOA & community: HOA: Richmond American HomesHOA fee $996 annually ($83/month)Association fee requiredPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spacesGarage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableCable availableBB/HS internet availableSewer and water available
• Home design: Single family residenceTwo storiesNew construction (projected completion August 2026)Northwest facingUnder construction
• Construction: Stucco and vinyl siding exteriorShingle roofBlock/Other/slab foundationBuilt by Richmond American Homes (Model: Pine)
• Exterior features: Covered porchPatioIrrigation equipmentBrick and paved road accessPublic maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRangeMicrowaveDisposalElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchenHigh ceilingsLiving room / dining room comboOpen floorplanSolid surface countersWalk-in closetsSliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $399,999 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $399,999 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $399,999 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $399,999 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $399,999 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $399,999 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $399,999 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $399,999 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-07-28
   days on market $399,999 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-07-26
    days on market $399,999 Active 75 DOM
11. 2026-07-24
    days on market $399,999 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    price $399,999 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $409,999 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $409,999 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $409,999 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $409,999 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $409,999 Active 66 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $409,999 Active 65 DOM
19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $409,999 Active 64 DOM
20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $409,999 Active 63 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $409,999 Active 62 DOM
22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $409,999 Active 61 DOM
23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $409,999 Active 60 DOM
24. 2026-07-10
    days on market $409,999 Active 59 DOM
25. 2026-07-09
    days on market $409,999 Active 58 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $409,999 Active 56 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $409,999 Active 55 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $409,999 Active 54 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $409,999 Active 52 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $409,999 Active 51 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $409,999 Active 50 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $409,999 Active 49 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    price $409,999 Active 48 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $399,999 Active 48 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $399,999 Active 47 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $399,999 Active 46 DOM

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    Explore this dynamic Pine home, ready for quick move-in. Included features: a covered front porch; a full bedroom and bathroom off the entry; an inviting great room; a corner kitchen boasting a center island, a large walk-in pantry, and an adjacent nook; an airy loft; a thoughtfully designed primary suite showcasing a spacious walk-in closet and a private bath with double sinks; three secondary bedrooms; a shared bath with double sinks; an upstairs laundry; and a cheerful covered patio with center-meet sliding glass doors. Tour today!

37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $399,999 Active 45 DOM

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    Explore this dynamic Pine home, ready for quick move-in. Included features: a covered front porch; a full bedroom and bathroom off the entry; an inviting great room; a corner kitchen boasting a center island, a large walk-in pantry, and an adjacent nook; an airy loft; a thoughtfully designed primary suite showcasing a spacious walk-in closet and a private bath with double sinks; three secondary bedrooms; a shared bath with double sinks; an upstairs laundry; and a cheerful covered patio with center-meet sliding glass doors. Tour today!

38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $399,999 Active 43 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $399,999 Active 41 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $399,999 Active 40 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $399,999 Active 37 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $399,999 Active 36 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $399,999 Active 35 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $399,999 Active 34 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $399,999 Active 32 DOM
46. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $399,999 Active 31 DOM
47. 2026-06-10
    days on market $426,999 Active 29 DOM

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    Explore this dynamic Pine home, ready for quick move-in. Included features: a covered front porch; a full bedroom and bathroom off the entry; an inviting great room; a corner kitchen boasting a center island, a large walk-in pantry, and an adjacent nook; an airy loft; a thoughtfully designed primary suite showcasing a spacious walk-in closet and a private bath with double sinks; three secondary bedrooms; a shared bath with double sinks; an upstairs laundry; and a cheerful covered patio with center-meet sliding glass doors. Tour today!

48. 2026-06-09
    days on market $426,999 Active 28 DOM
49. 2026-06-08
    days on market $426,999 Active 27 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $426,999 Active 26 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,949
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,022
• − Property taxes: −$6,165
• − Insurance: −$2,055
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,796
• − Management: −$2,796
• − HOA: −$996
• − Depreciation: −$11,956
• Taxable loss: −$14,837
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,561
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This under-construction home is nearly move-in-ready with good condition and modern finishes. Minor updates to the exterior and lighting would further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Landscaping front yard — Improves curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures in kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizes and improves aesthetics ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blackburn Elementary School C- FL #990/2,144 Nat'l #11,263/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Palmetto

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #5695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 56,208
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage: less than 1/4 acre (approx. 0.1 acres)Lot size approx. 0.1 acres (435 sq meters)Builder license CBC1258254Permit number BLD2508-3670
• HOA & community: HOA: Richmond American HomesHOA fee $996 annually ($83/month)Association fee requiredPets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 garage spacesGarage door opener
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableCable availableBB/HS internet availableSewer and water available
• Home design: Single family residenceTwo storiesNew construction (projected completion August 2026)Northwest facingUnder construction
• Construction: Stucco and vinyl siding exteriorShingle roofBlock/Other/slab foundationBuilt by Richmond American Homes (Model: Pine)
• Exterior features: Covered porchPatioIrrigation equipmentBrick and paved road accessPublic maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherRangeMicrowaveDisposalElectric water heater
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: CarpetCeramic tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchenHigh ceilingsLiving room / dining room comboOpen floorplanSolid surface countersWalk-in closetsSliding doors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-27 Price Changed $409,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $399,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $399,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $426,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $399,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-11 Price Changed $426,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $399,999 Zillow
• 2026-06-02 Listed $426,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $426,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $434,099 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $435,099 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid