10405 Gordon Rd · Spotsylvania Courthouse, VA 22553

$299,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 1989 0.51 ac lot Est $353k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.2/15.0
• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced To Sell! Spacious Split-Level Home Situated on a Generous . 51 Acre Lot Offering Plenty of Room to Live, Entertain, and Grow. Features Include a Finished Walk-Out Lower Level, Spacious Bedrooms, and a Large Deck Overlooking the Fenced Backyard. Additional Highlights Include a Storage Shed and Ample Outdoor Space for Recreation, Gardening, or Pets. Property Needs Cosmetic Improvements and Updating but Offers Outstanding Potential for Homeowners, Investors, or Renovation Enthusiasts Looking to Add Value. Conveniently Located And Ready for your Personal Touches. Don't Miss This Opportunity to Transform This Property into Something Special! Sold As-Is

Key facts

• Large deck
• Ample outdoor space
• Storage shed

Tags

• FINISHED WALK-OUT LOWER LEVEL
• LARGE DECK
• FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• AMPLE OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership; Property listed as historic; Total below-grade area 480

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water service; Private septic for sewer; Electric power
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Estimated year built
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Other type of foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures; Below-grade finished area (estimated) 480; Above-grade finished area (assessor) 1,020
• Exterior features: Public water; Private septic tank; Tidal water: no

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level; 2 full bathrooms total
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning; Electric heating and cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Basement is fully finished and daylight access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($79/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (22.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.4% in Spotsylvania Courthouse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#228 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Spotsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #38 of 131 in VA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 77 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 707 units permitted in Spotsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spotsylvania County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $300k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,138 (22.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.09%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $352,692
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10402 Mallard Point Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+11%)	17mo	$390,000	$303	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-36,027
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $24,533
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22553

• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 77
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,321 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$130 /mo · $1,556/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,313

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $176	-5% $91	+0% $7	+5% $-78	+10% $-163
Rent	-10% $-177	-5% $-85	+0% $7	+5% $98	+10% $190
Rate	-1.0pp $158	-0.5pp $83	base $7	+0.5pp $-71	+1.0pp $-150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 662-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $299,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,556 · $130/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,459 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: +$903/yr (+$75/mo · 58.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,857
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,556
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,229
• − Management: −$2,229
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$5,179
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,243
• After-tax cash flow: $1,322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spotsylvania County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103640
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,321
• Composite: 55.79/100
• National rank: #1213
• State rank: #38 of 131 in VA

Livability — Spotsylvania Courthouse

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #228
• US rank: #7688

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Spotsylvania County · 138,364 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 17,207
• Household income: $135,856
• Rent vs Own: 19.0% rent · 81.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 346.0

Population outlook (Spotsylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,292 people
• By 2030: 153,092 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 164,270 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 171,000 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 183,080 · +25.1%
• By 2100: 180,412 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 15% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spotsylvania

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.6) · D 45.1% · R 53.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -8.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.6 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.60%
• Current HPI: 157.1091
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.10%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+185.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $299,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2000-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $104,900 Public Records
• 2000-01-24 Sold (MLS) $104,900 MRIS
• 1999-12-28 Delisted — MRIS
• 1999-07-10 Listed $104,900 MRIS
• 1998-09-01 Delisted — MRIS
• 1998-05-22 Listed — MRIS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,556 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.