121 Byron Ln · Victoria, TX 77901

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,533 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1981 8,123 sqft lot $104/sqft · 32% below area Est $235k · 32% under ↓ 20% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated in a prime location at 121 Byron, this property offers a fantastic opportunity for a buyer looking to build sweat equity; the home is conveniently positioned near local shopping, restaurants, and scenic bike trails. Inside, the traditional layout features three bedrooms and two full bathrooms (plus plenty of storage closets); it serves as a blank canvas that is ready for your vision and modern updates. The exterior includes a covered porch, a concrete slab, and two storage sheds for all your equipment; because the home is priced to reflect its current condition, it is a rare find for an investor or a homeowner ready to bring this "diamond in the rough" back to its full potential.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Concrete slab
• Scenic bike trails

Tags

• PRIME LOCATION
• LOCAL SHOPPING
• SCENIC BIKE TRAILS
• COVERED PORCH
• CONCRETE SLAB
• STORAGE SHEDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-120 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $142k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.7% in Victoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#309 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Victoria ISD (urban): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #645 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Martin De Leon El (math 40% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,437 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 541 students, 60% FRL); Howell Middle (math 28% / reading 37%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 757 students, 68% FRL); Victoria East H S (math 23% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 1,845 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 199 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 43 units permitted in Victoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Victoria County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,852 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.21%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $234,950
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -31.90%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 Cromwell Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,559 (+2%)	1mo	$253,000	$162	77
220 Navajo Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,583 (+3%)	1mo	$142,000	$90	68
3308 Erwin Ave	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,365 (-11%)	0mo	$185,000	$136	66
114 Andover	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+1%)	1mo	$254,000	$164	66
104 Calypso Ct	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,564 (+2%)	2mo	$270,000	$173	62
1708 Alamo Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,388 (-10%)	2mo	$199,900	$144	62
509 Ivanhoe Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,315 (-14%)	3mo	$234,900	$179	60
117 Alydar Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+8%)	3mo	$269,900	$162	58
2002 Mission Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+7%)	2mo	$209,000	$128	54
517 Maplewood Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,637 (+7%)	3mo	$220,000	$134	54
603 Maplewood Dr	0.64mi	3/2.5	1,644 (+7%)	2mo	$179,990	$109	54
304 Rattan Dr	0.53mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,322 (-14%)	3mo	$165,000	$125	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-37,619
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-58,272
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77901

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,424 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$339 /mo · $4,071/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $-120

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,576

Max offer price $138,852

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-29	-5% $-74	+0% $-120	+5% $-165	+10% $-210
Rent	-10% $-232	-5% $-176	+0% $-120	+5% $-63	+10% $-7
Rate	-1.0pp $-39	-0.5pp $-79	base $-120	+0.5pp $-161	+1.0pp $-203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1601 John Stockbauer Dr Victoria, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$1,805	$1.81	45d	8	0.45mi
109 Windward Ct Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,325	$1.16	45d	1	0.56mi
602 Sherwood Dr Unit C Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	1225	$1,250	$1.02	45d	1	0.69mi
114 Avant Garde Dr Victoria, TX	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,595	$1.15	45d	1	0.88mi
203 Palmwood Dr Unit B Victoria, TX	3.0	2.0	1110	$1,350	$1.22	45d	1	0.99mi
102 Palmwood Dr Victoria, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,045	$0.95	45d	1	1.06mi
2406 E Mockingbird Ln Victoria, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1032	$1,300	$1.26	45d	4	1.09mi
313 Williamsburg Ave Victoria, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	839	$1,300	$1.55	45d	5	1.38mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $160,000 Pending 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $160,000 Active 74 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $160,000 Active 73 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $160,000 Active 72 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $160,000 Active 71 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $160,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-04-30
   price $160,000 707-char remark

   Show marketing remark (707 chars)

   Situated in a prime location at 121 Byron, this property offers a fantastic opportunity for a buyer looking to build sweat equity; the home is conveniently positioned near local shopping, restaurants, and scenic bike trails. Inside, the traditional layout features three bedrooms and two full bathrooms (plus plenty of storage closets); it serves as a blank canvas that is ready for your vision and modern updates. The exterior includes a covered porch, a concrete slab, and two storage sheds for all your equipment; because the home is priced to reflect its current condition, it is a rare find for an investor or a homeowner ready to bring this "diamond in the rough" back to its full potential.

8. 2026-03-20
   listed $185,000 Active 707-char remark

   Show marketing remark (707 chars)

   Situated in a prime location at 121 Byron, this property offers a fantastic opportunity for a buyer looking to build sweat equity; the home is conveniently positioned near local shopping, restaurants, and scenic bike trails. Inside, the traditional layout features three bedrooms and two full bathrooms (plus plenty of storage closets); it serves as a blank canvas that is ready for your vision and modern updates. The exterior includes a covered porch, a concrete slab, and two storage sheds for all your equipment; because the home is priced to reflect its current condition, it is a rare find for an investor or a homeowner ready to bring this "diamond in the rough" back to its full potential.

9. 2025-06-22
   historical
10. 2025-05-19
    price $194,900
11. 2025-03-05
    price $199,000
12. 2025-03-05
    price $199
13. 2024-12-23
    listed $212,000 Active
14. 2024-08-16
    historical
15. 2024-07-12
    status Active
16. 2024-06-30
    historical Active Under Contract
17. 2024-05-24
    price $180,000
18. 2024-03-15
    listed $199,500 Active
19. 2018-02-27
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,071 · $339/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,071 · $339/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,092
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$4,071
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,367
• − Management: −$1,367
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$4,130
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$991
• After-tax cash flow: $-445/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victoria ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844150
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,534
• Composite: 24.98/100
• National rank: #7562
• State rank: #645 of 826 in TX

Livability — Victoria

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #309
• US rank: #6960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victoria, TX
• County: Victoria County · 69,915 people
• City population: 69,915
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,854
• Household income: $57,923
• Rent vs Own: 46.5% rent · 53.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1802.0

Population outlook (Victoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 106,119 people
• By 2030: 113,161 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 127,402 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 141,953 · +33.8%
• By 2075: 179,410 · +69.1%
• By 2100: 200,127 · +88.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 30% White 24% Black 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 35% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Victoria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.6) · D 28.4% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.6 2020: R+38.0 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.62%
• Current HPI: 138.3569
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Victoria, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-19.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $160,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-03-20 Listed $185,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-06-22 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $194,900 CTXMLS
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $199,000 CTXMLS
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $199 CTXMLS
• 2024-12-23 Listed $212,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-08-16 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-07-12 Relisted — CTXMLS
• 2024-06-30 Contingent — CTXMLS
• 2024-05-24 Price Changed $180,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-03-15 Listed $199,500 CTXMLS
• 2018-02-27 Sold (MLS) — BCBR

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,071 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.