Magnolia Plan · Katy, TX 77493

$352,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,640 sqft · SingleFamily · 249 Days on market

↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-5 Bedrooms | 2.5-4 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,640 Sq. Ft. The Magnolia offers timeless elegance and modern functionality across two spacious levels. With its flowing main level, private retreats, and soaring open spaces, this home blends luxury and livability-crafted to make every day feel like home. Entering the home, the foyer opens into a dramatic, light-filled great room with soaring ceilings. The open flow between the great room, casual dining area, and kitchen makes this space perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a large island, walk-in pantry, and direct access to the covered patio, creating a smooth transition from indoor gatherings to outdoor relaxation. Near the entrance a formal dining room can be transformed into a study or fifth bedroom with a full bath to suit your lifestyle. Privately set on the main floor's rear corner, the primary suite serves as a luxurious retreat, complete with a spa-style bath featuring dual vanities, a luxe soaking tub, shower with seat, and a generous walk-in closet. Add a bay window to the bedroom to enhance the rooms architectural appeal and increase natural light. Upstairs, the game room provides a central space for play or leisure. Two secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets, share a full bath, while an airy loft adds even more flexibility. Buyers can also personalize the plan with an optional fourth bedroom with bath or a media room, great for movie nights or watch parties. Whether you're gathe

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Expansive closet
• Oversized island

Tags

• OVERSIZED ISLAND
• ABUNDANT COUNTER SPACE
• PRIVATE OWNER'S SUITE
• SPACIOUS BATH
• EXPANSIVE CLOSET
• FORMAL DINING ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $352,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $407,756.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $353k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-723 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 249 days — a 12% lower offer ($311k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,145 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 249 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.60%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $407,756
• List price: $352,990
• Delta: -13.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5007 Canyon Grove Dr	0.05mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,793 (+6%)	2mo	$412,990	$148	80
27026 Golden Isle Ln	0.25mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,492 (-6%)	2mo	$389,000	$156	66
2237 Sonder Shore Dr	0.51mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,554 (-3%)	1mo	$379,990	$149	61
27403 Cinnamon Shores Dr	0.63mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,671 (+1%)	2mo	$432,915	$162	58
27034 Flower Isle Ln	0.20mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,262 (-14%)	1mo	$375,315	$166	57
27022 Sunset Palace Dr	0.60mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,754 (+4%)	1mo	$422,651	$153	57
5021 Steady Breeze Dr	0.55mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,782 (+5%)	2mo	$494,893	$178	53
5614 Sandcastle Ridge Dr	0.62mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,782 (+5%)	0mo	$499,236	$179	51
4669 Cleo Day Dr	0.65mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,488 (-6%)	1mo	$359,990	$145	50
5627 Pearl Vista Dr	0.60mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,449 (-7%)	1mo	$419,115	$171	48
5619 Pearl Vista Dr	0.59mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,432 (-8%)	1mo	$394,889	$162	48
5635 Birchwood Glen Dr	0.64mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,370 (-10%)	2mo	$371,175	$157	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-119,869
• Equity at exit: $60,798

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.70×
• Total profit: $-193,563
• Equity at exit: $35,255

Cash invested: $114,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,651 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,138
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$510 /mo · $6,116/yr
• Insurance: −$170
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$557
• Net cashflow: $-723

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,567

Max offer price $303,098

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-441	-5% $-582	+0% $-723	+5% $-864	+10% $-1,005
Rent	-10% $-933	-5% $-828	+0% $-723	+5% $-619	+10% $-514
Rate	-1.0pp $-518	-0.5pp $-620	base $-723	+0.5pp $-829	+1.0pp $-936

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,939
• Closing costs: $12,233
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,406	$1.41	0d	25	0.31mi
1495 Twilight Green Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	2000	$2,400	$1.20	45d	1	0.43mi
27035 Beacon Glen Dr Katy, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1890	$3,024	$1.60	0d	17	0.52mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	22d	1	0.59mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	45d	1	0.71mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	45d	1	0.77mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	18d	1	1.02mi
3136 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	14d	1	1.13mi
3041 Colusa Ridge Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2263	$2,500	$1.10	14d	1	1.14mi
3124 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	26d	1	1.14mi
3112 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,330	$1.31	26d	1	1.16mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	26d	1	1.17mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	14d	1	1.21mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	0d	1	1.39mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	14d	1	1.44mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	23d	1	1.45mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	17d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $352,990 Active 249 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $352,990 Active 246 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $352,990 Active 245 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $352,990 Active 244 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $352,990 Active 243 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $352,990 Active 237 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $352,990 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $352,990 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $352,990 Active 232 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $352,990 Active 231 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $352,990 Active 230 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $342,990 Active 229 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $342,990 Active 228 DOM
14. 2026-01-31
    price $342,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    3-5 Bedrooms | 2.5-4 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,640 Sq. Ft. The Magnolia offers timeless elegance and modern functionality across two spacious levels. With its flowing main level, private retreats, and soaring open spaces, this home blends luxury and livability-crafted to make every day feel like home. Entering the home, the foyer opens into a dramatic, light-filled great room with soaring ceilings. The open flow between the great room, casual dining area, and kitchen makes this space perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a large island, walk-in pantry, and direct access to the covered patio, creating a smooth transition from indoor gatherings to outdoor relaxation. Near the entrance a formal dining room can be transformed into a study or fifth bedroom with a full bath to suit your lifestyle. Privately set on the main floor's rear corner, the primary suite serves as a luxurious retreat, complete with a spa-style bath featuring dual vanities, a luxe soaking tub, shower with seat, and a generous walk-in closet. Add a bay window to the bedroom to enhance the rooms architectural appeal and increase natural light. Upstairs, the game room provides a central space for play or leisure. Two secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets, share a full bath, while an airy loft adds even more flexibility. Buyers can also personalize the plan with an optional fourth bedroom with bath or a media room, great for movie nights or watch parties. Whether you're gathe

15. 2026-01-09
    price $349,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    3-5 Bedrooms | 2.5-4 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,640 Sq. Ft. The Magnolia offers timeless elegance and modern functionality across two spacious levels. With its flowing main level, private retreats, and soaring open spaces, this home blends luxury and livability-crafted to make every day feel like home. Entering the home, the foyer opens into a dramatic, light-filled great room with soaring ceilings. The open flow between the great room, casual dining area, and kitchen makes this space perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a large island, walk-in pantry, and direct access to the covered patio, creating a smooth transition from indoor gatherings to outdoor relaxation. Near the entrance a formal dining room can be transformed into a study or fifth bedroom with a full bath to suit your lifestyle. Privately set on the main floor's rear corner, the primary suite serves as a luxurious retreat, complete with a spa-style bath featuring dual vanities, a luxe soaking tub, shower with seat, and a generous walk-in closet. Add a bay window to the bedroom to enhance the rooms architectural appeal and increase natural light. Upstairs, the game room provides a central space for play or leisure. Two secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets, share a full bath, while an airy loft adds even more flexibility. Buyers can also personalize the plan with an optional fourth bedroom with bath or a media room, great for movie nights or watch parties. Whether you're gathe

16. 2025-11-04
    price $347,990 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    3-5 Bedrooms | 2.5-4 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,640 Sq. Ft. The Magnolia offers timeless elegance and modern functionality across two spacious levels. With its flowing main level, private retreats, and soaring open spaces, this home blends luxury and livability-crafted to make every day feel like home. Entering the home, the foyer opens into a dramatic, light-filled great room with soaring ceilings. The open flow between the great room, casual dining area, and kitchen makes this space perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a large island, walk-in pantry, and direct access to the covered patio, creating a smooth transition from indoor gatherings to outdoor relaxation. Near the entrance a formal dining room can be transformed into a study or fifth bedroom with a full bath to suit your lifestyle. Privately set on the main floor's rear corner, the primary suite serves as a luxurious retreat, complete with a spa-style bath featuring dual vanities, a luxe soaking tub, shower with seat, and a generous walk-in closet. Add a bay window to the bedroom to enhance the rooms architectural appeal and increase natural light. Upstairs, the game room provides a central space for play or leisure. Two secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets, share a full bath, while an airy loft adds even more flexibility. Buyers can also personalize the plan with an optional fourth bedroom with bath or a media room, great for movie nights or watch parties. Whether you're gathe

17. 2025-10-15
    listed $357,990 Active 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    3-5 Bedrooms | 2.5-4 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,640 Sq. Ft. The Magnolia offers timeless elegance and modern functionality across two spacious levels. With its flowing main level, private retreats, and soaring open spaces, this home blends luxury and livability-crafted to make every day feel like home. Entering the home, the foyer opens into a dramatic, light-filled great room with soaring ceilings. The open flow between the great room, casual dining area, and kitchen makes this space perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen includes a large island, walk-in pantry, and direct access to the covered patio, creating a smooth transition from indoor gatherings to outdoor relaxation. Near the entrance a formal dining room can be transformed into a study or fifth bedroom with a full bath to suit your lifestyle. Privately set on the main floor's rear corner, the primary suite serves as a luxurious retreat, complete with a spa-style bath featuring dual vanities, a luxe soaking tub, shower with seat, and a generous walk-in closet. Add a bay window to the bedroom to enhance the rooms architectural appeal and increase natural light. Upstairs, the game room provides a central space for play or leisure. Two secondary bedrooms, each with walk-in closets, share a full bath, while an airy loft adds even more flexibility. Buyers can also personalize the plan with an optional fourth bedroom with bath or a media room, great for movie nights or watch parties. Whether you're gathe

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,841
• − Property taxes: −$6,116
• − Insurance: −$2,039
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,545
• − Management: −$2,545
• − Depreciation: −$11,862
• Taxable loss: −$16,131
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,871
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,808/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $342,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $349,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $347,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Listed $357,990 Zillow