46 Lee St · Forest Lake, MN 55025

$52,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 145 Days on market

Built 2017 ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Here's your chance to own an affordable 3 bed/2 bath home in a professionally managed park only minutes from restaurants, shopping, and public access to Forest Lake. Efficient floor plan and charming updates to finishes. Kitchen appliances and washer/dryer are included, and next-to-new shed stays and provides great storage for your all your outside toys. Brand new furnace just installed. Lot rent includes water, sewer and garbage service.

Key facts

• Built 2017
• Listed 145 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $53k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $947 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $53k).
• Recommended offer: $47k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.8% vs local median 3.1% in Forest Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#194 in MN, #4,132 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Forest Lake Public School District (town): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #90 of 301 in MN (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 164 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,405 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (121 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $366 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 145 days — a 12% lower offer ($47k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $46,552 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 145 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.69%
• DSCR: 4.41
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.33% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 77.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.53×
• Total profit: $52,296
• Equity at exit: $7,888

10-year hold

• IRR: 80.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.48×
• Total profit: $125,559
• Equity at exit: $4,574

Cash invested: $14,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55025

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,661 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$277
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$66 /mo · $794/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $947

Break-even live

Break-even rent $463

Max offer price $52,900

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $983	-5% $965	+0% $947	+5% $928	+10% $910
Rent	-10% $815	-5% $881	+0% $947	+5% $1,012	+10% $1,078
Rate	-1.0pp $973	-0.5pp $960	base $947	+0.5pp $933	+1.0pp $919

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,225
• Closing costs: $1,587
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1081 4th St SW Forest Lake, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	939	$2,026	$2.16	0d	12	0.50mi
407 11th Ave SW Forest Lake, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,741	$2.25	0d	34	0.58mi
525 4th St SW Forest Lake, MN	2.0–3.0	1.0	1070	$1,629	$1.52	0d	9	0.80mi
231 4th Ave NW Forest Lake, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	763	$1,349	$1.77	0d	5	0.87mi
956 12th St SW Forest Lake, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0	830	$1,279	$1.54	5d	6	1.00mi
607 W Broadway Ave Forest Lake, MN	2.0	1.0	960	$1,400	$1.46	25d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-04
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2025-12-18
   price $52,900
4. 2025-11-29
   price $54,900
5. 2025-10-25
   listed $57,500 Active
6. 2025-10-22
   historical $57,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,963
• − Property taxes: −$794
• − Insurance: −$264
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,595
• − Management: −$1,595
• − Depreciation: −$1,539
• Taxable income: $11,183
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,684
• After-tax cash flow: $8,675/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forest Lake Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2712270
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $75,736
• Composite: 45.24/100
• National rank: #2664
• State rank: #90 of 301 in MN

Livability — Forest Lake

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #194
• US rank: #4132

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Forest Lake, MN
• County: Washington County · 235,613 people
• City population: 25,891
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 25,891
• Household income: $98,382
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 420.0

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 278,554 people
• By 2030: 290,465 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 310,014 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 324,118 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 362,697 · +30.2%
• By 2100: 381,491 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 5% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Spanish 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+8.9) · D 53.5% · R 44.6% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.6pp toward D · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: 8.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+8.9 2020: D+9.2 2016: D+1.9 2012: D+0.8 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -280.92%
• Current HPI: 235.3166
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.33%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $52,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-29 Price Changed $54,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-25 Listed $57,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-22 Coming Soon $57,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid