6139 Emperor Pines Trl · Houston, TX 77365

$301,540

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,121 sqft · Land · 94 Days on market

Built 2025 $58/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW HOME! Discover the Discovery floorplan, a stunning 2-story, 2,121 sq. ft. home in Royal Pines. This beautifully designed residence features 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, with all bedrooms conveniently located upstairs. The open-concept main floor seamlessly connects a spacious living room and a modern kitchen, creating the perfect space for family gatherings and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with brand new stainless-steel appliances, including a refrigerator, washer, and dryer. The second floor offers a unique Jack and Jill bathroom, ideal for accommodating family or guests, and the primary bedroom boasts a luxurious en suite bathroom and a large walk-in closet. Don’

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Large walk-in closet
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN FLOOR
• MODERN KITCHEN
• JACK AND JILL BATHROOM
• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District disclosure
• HOA & community: ASI Sterling community association; Annual association fee of $700

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Full ownership; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Built by Starlight Homes; Cement siding; Year built: 2025
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fence (back yard); Subdivision setting; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Pantry; Kitchen island; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor (approx. 17 x 14); Second-floor bedroom (approx. 12 x 11); Second-floor bedroom (approx. 12 x 11); Second-floor bedroom (approx. 10.5 x 10.5)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Granite counters; High ceilings; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with private bath; Pantry; Separate shower; Tub/shower; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $302k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-86 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $286k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pine Valley Middle (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #997 of 1,662 statewide, top 61%, 776 students, 77% FRL); New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 955 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $221,911 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.23%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-57,454
• Equity at exit: $44,961

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-69,465
• Equity at exit: $26,072

Cash invested: $84,431 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77365

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 955
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,219 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,581
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $894/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-86

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,328

Max offer price $286,283

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $84	-5% $-1	+0% $-86	+5% $-172	+10% $-257
Rent	-10% $-262	-5% $-174	+0% $-86	+5% $1	+10% $89
Rate	-1.0pp $65	-0.5pp $-10	base $-86	+0.5pp $-165	+1.0pp $-244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,385
• Closing costs: $9,046
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3206 Abbey Field Ln Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,623	$1.07	45d	1	0.46mi
6313 Barrington Cliff Trl Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,134	$1.19	45d	1	0.72mi
6313 Barrington Cliff Trl Porter, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$1,999	$1.11	0d	1	0.73mi
5714 Straight Way Kingwood, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$1,830	$1.02	21d	1	1.13mi
5706 Straight Way Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2346	$2,095	$0.89	17d	1	1.15mi
3514 Creek Manor Dr Kingwood, TX	4.0	2.5	2274	$1,995	$0.88	45d	1	1.33mi
23227 Albert Dr Porter, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$2,300	$1.28	45d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Active
2. 2026-05-19
   price $234,990
3. 2026-04-13
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-12
   price $296,990
5. 2026-03-27
   price $229,990
6. 2026-03-03
   price $234,990
7. 2026-02-11
   status Active
8. 2025-11-17
   status Pending
9. 2025-11-16
   price $239,990
10. 2025-11-14
    price $234,990
11. 2025-11-04
    price $282,240
12. 2025-10-30
    status Active
13. 2025-09-23
    status Pending
14. 2025-09-16
    listed $296,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $894 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,518 · $460/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,624/yr (+$385/mo · 517.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,629
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,891
• − Property taxes: −$894
• − Insurance: −$1,508
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,130
• − Management: −$2,130
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$8,772
• Taxable loss: −$6,392
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,534
• After-tax cash flow: $498/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,418
• Household income: $95,702
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1016.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 44% Two or more races 15% Black 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 39% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 59% English-only · Spanish 36% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.46%
• Current HPI: 225.9903
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.9% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $234,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $296,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $229,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $234,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-11-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-16 Price Changed $239,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Price Changed $234,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $282,240 HARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-09-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $296,990 HARMLS