409 Talley St · Taylor, TX 76574

$199,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1999 6,098 sqft lot Est $200k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Turn-Key Remodel in the Heart of Taylor! Welcome to 409 Talley St, a beautifully updated home just minutes from Downtown Taylor, the new Samsung facility, and the upcoming data center. This property has been thoughtfully remodeled from top to bottom, offering modern finishes with classic charm. Step inside to find brand-new flooring, trim, doors, and fixtures throughout. The kitchen is the true showstopper: featuring all-new cabinets, a farmhouse sink, butcher block countertops, and stainless steel appliances (including refrigerator, stove, and dishwasher). The bathrooms and living spaces shine with fresh updates, creating a move-in-ready retreat. Outside, the curb appeal has been refreshed

Key facts

• Brand-new flooring
• Turn-key remodel
• Modern finishes

Tags

• TURN-KEY REMODEL
• MODERN FINISHES
• BRAND-NEW FLOORING
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• BUTCHER BLOCK COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Playground nearby; Park nearby; Street lights; Trails/paths; Curbs

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2 parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water; Public sewer; Fiber optic available; High-speed internet available; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Single-story home; Faces west; Resale property; Entry on main level
• Construction: HardiPlank-type siding; Shingle roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built (year per public records)
• Exterior features: Private yard; Exterior steps; Covered front porch; Back yard; Front yard; Few trees; City lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave; Plumbed for ice maker; Refrigerator; Galley kitchen with dining area
• Bedrooms: 4 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Blinds; Double pane windows; Ceiling fans; Main level primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Interior laundry room; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 4.3% in Taylor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#312 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D-, amenities F.
• Taylor ISD (town): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #726 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 314 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,999 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.48%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,400
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
409 Talley St	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,200 (0%)	1mo	$199,999	$167	99
608 E Pecan St	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,184 (-1%)	11mo	$139,500	$118	81
143 2nd Ave	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,111 (-7%)	15mo	$265,000	$239	45
611 Maple St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,048 (-13%)	4mo	$120,000	$115	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-24,179
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-23,743
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76574

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 314
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,036 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,208/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $209

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,772

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
600 Kimbro St Taylor, TX	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,250	$1.52	24d	1	1.00mi
806 W 8th St Taylor, TX	3.0	1.0	892	$1,600	$1.79	44d	1	1.12mi
1117 W 4th St Taylor, TX	3.0	2.0	1334	$1,400	$1.05	18d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-28
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2026-04-24
   price $199,999
4. 2026-03-26
   status Active
5. 2026-03-22
   historical Active Under Contract
6. 2026-03-05
   price $219,900
7. 2026-01-01
   listed $224,900 Active
8. 2025-12-31
   historical
9. 2025-10-23
   price $224,999
10. 2025-10-23
    price
11. 2025-10-14
    status Active
12. 2025-09-04
    listed $239,999 Active
13. 2025-09-04
    listed Active
14. 2014-06-02
    soldstatus
15. 2014-05-30
    soldstatus Sold
16. 2014-03-23
    status Pending - Taking Backups
17. 2014-02-25
    price $78,000
18. 2014-02-23
    price $82,000
19. 2014-01-12
    price $81,950
20. 2013-12-03
    price $82,000
21. 2013-10-22
    price $88,900
22. 2013-09-19
    price $89,000
23. 2013-09-04
    listed $92,000 Active
24. 2012-04-18
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2012-03-26
    status Pending
26. 2012-03-14
    historical Active Contingent
27. 2012-02-13
    listed $42,000 Active
28. 2006-02-01
    soldstatus
29. 1999-03-09
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,208 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,660 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$452/yr (+$38/mo · 14.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,435
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,208
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,955
• − Management: −$1,955
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$704
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$169
• After-tax cash flow: $2,679/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Taylor ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $45,330
• Composite: 20.35/100
• National rank: #8606
• State rank: #726 of 826 in TX

Livability — Taylor

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #312
• US rank: #7013

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Taylor, TX
• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 20,242
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,242
• Household income: $78,568
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 371.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 22% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 23% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.71%
• Current HPI: 227.58
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.43%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+376.2% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $199,999 Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-26 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-22 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $219,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $224,900 Unlock MLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $224,999 CTXMLS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-14 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed — Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $239,999 CTXMLS
• 2014-06-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-05-30 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2014-03-23 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2014-02-25 Price Changed $78,000 Unlock MLS
• 2014-02-23 Price Changed $82,000 Unlock MLS
• 2014-01-12 Price Changed $81,950 Unlock MLS
• 2013-12-03 Price Changed $82,000 Unlock MLS
• 2013-10-22 Price Changed $88,900 Unlock MLS
• 2013-09-19 Price Changed $89,000 Unlock MLS
• 2013-09-04 Listed $92,000 Unlock MLS
• 2012-04-18 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2012-03-26 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2012-03-14 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2012-02-13 Listed $42,000 Unlock MLS
• 2006-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-03-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,208 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.