514 E Short Mountain St · Paris, AR 72855

$50,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,269 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1977 0.25 ac lot $39/sqft · 53% below area ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3BR/1BA home with 1,269 sq ft ready for full renovation. Ideal for investors or buyers looking to customize. Sold as-is; will not qualify for traditional financing. Cash or construction/rehab loans only. Great opportunity to add value! Bring your vision and transform this property into your next project or investment.

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $530 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 19.0% vs local median 5.6% in Paris — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#68 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Paris School District (town): math 41% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 238 in AR (top 35%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 78 active listings in the ZIP; 11 units permitted in Logan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $346 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Logan County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $50k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 19.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 45.43%
• DSCR: 3.02
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $107,330
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -53.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
801 Main St	0.13mi	3/1.0	1,392 (+10%)	12mo	$144,000	$103	68
817 E Chism St	0.22mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,232 (-3%)	15mo	$57,400	$47	68
1104 Main St	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (-1%)	15mo	$20,000	$16	65
702 5th St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,440 (+14%)	1mo	$57,000	$40	64
1112 E Wood St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,209 (-5%)	9mo	$152,700	$126	61
1104 Fuller St	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,372 (+8%)	11mo	$140,000	$102	55
804 Wahl St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,250 (-2%)	15mo	$157,000	$126	52
111 Grober St	0.49mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,088 (-14%)	1mo	$85,000	$78	48
1205 Crescent Dr	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,161 (-8%)	6mo	$30,000	$26	46
402 W Main St	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,350 (+6%)	16mo	$155,000	$115	43
118 Hall St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,432 (+13%)	2mo	$163,500	$114	42
1112 Elm St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,413 (+11%)	12mo	$136,000	$96	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $25,669
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 48.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.71×
• Total profit: $65,885
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72855

• Home prices YoY: -8.3%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,108 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$233
• Net cashflow: $530

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $565	-5% $547	+0% $530	+5% $513	+10% $495
Rent	-10% $442	-5% $486	+0% $530	+5% $574	+10% $618
Rate	-1.0pp $555	-0.5pp $543	base $530	+0.5pp $517	+1.0pp $504

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $50,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $50,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $50,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $50,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $50,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-04-23
    listed $50,000 Active 319-char remark
11. 2003-12-31
    soldstatus $30,000
12. 2002-05-14
    soldstatus $41,000
13. 1994-10-01
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,299
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,064
• − Management: −$1,064
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $5,916
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,420
• After-tax cash flow: $4,940/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paris School District
• NCES district ID: 0511130
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $34,950
• Composite: 32.25/100
• National rank: #5763
• State rank: #83 of 238 in AR

Livability — Paris

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #68
• US rank: #8544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paris, AR
• Population (ZIP): 6,462

Population outlook (Logan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,046 people
• By 2030: 20,537 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 19,443 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 18,220 · -13.4%
• By 2075: 16,164 · -23.2%
• By 2100: 14,858 · -29.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Asian 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Logan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.2) · D 17.8% · R 80.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.5pp toward R · 2008: -38.8pp · 2024: -62.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.2 2020: R+59.5 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+41.9 2008: R+38.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.40%
• Current HPI: 170.513
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-33.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2003-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2002-05-14 Sold (Public Records) $41,000 Public Records
• 1994-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-17.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $21 · -77.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.