1624 S Highway 99 #66 · Manteca, CA 95336

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 72 Days on market

Built 2005 Good condition $112/sqft · at area comps Est $170k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome 1624 S Highway 99 #66, a mixture of comfortable and affordable living in the desirable Southland Mobile Home Park in Manteca! This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath double-wide mobile home offers a spacious and functional layout perfect for families, first-time buyers, or anyone looking to upsize without sacrificing any comfort. Step inside to find an open-concept living and dining area filled with natural light, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere. The kitchen features ample cabinet space, and a convenient layout ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite includes a private bathroom and generous closet space, while two additional bedrooms provide flexibility

Key facts

• Low-maintenance yard
• Leased solar
• Private bathroom

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• GENEROUS CLOSET SPACE
• LEASED SOLAR
• COVERED PARKING AREA
• LOW-MAINTENANCE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $962 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 2.7% in Manteca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#535 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities D, commute F, cost of living F.
• Manteca Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #297 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Haven Elementary (483 students, 50% FRL); East Union High (math 10% / reading 50%, grade F, #715 of 1,170 statewide, top 62%, 1,593 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.18%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $170,000
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: 2.94%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1624 S Highway 99 Frontage #21	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-14%)	3mo	$170,000	$126	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.50×
• Total profit: $24,678
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $68,622
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95336

• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,832 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$595
• Net cashflow: $962

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,615

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,083	-5% $1,022	+0% $962	+5% $901	+10% $841
Rent	-10% $738	-5% $850	+0% $962	+5% $1,074	+10% $1,185
Rate	-1.0pp $1,050	-0.5pp $1,006	base $962	+0.5pp $916	+1.0pp $870

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1493 Santini Ave Manteca, CA	4.0	2.5	1678	$3,000	$1.79	45d	1	0.27mi
1351 Aksland Dr Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,995	$1.83	45d	1	0.31mi
708 Meadow Way Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,750	$1.49	16d	1	0.92mi
856 Nottingham Dr Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,650	$1.88	4d	1	0.92mi
925 W Lathrop Rd Manteca, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$2,850	$2.81	4d	10	1.08mi
522 Dawn Dr Manteca, CA	3.0	2.5	1687	$2,500	$1.48	45d	1	1.15mi
1175 E Edison St Manteca, CA	4.0	2.0	1597	$2,395	$1.50	25d	1	1.20mi
1044 Agate Ave Manteca, CA	4.0	2.0	1142	$2,400	$2.10	23d	1	1.23mi
794 Button Ave Manteca, CA	2.0	2.0	1075	$2,300	$2.14	16d	1	1.24mi
1279 W Lathrop Rd Manteca, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1684	$2,450	$1.45	12d	6	1.41mi
934 W Alameda St Unit B Manteca, CA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,450	$1.63	45d	1	1.44mi
936 W Alameda St Unit A Manteca, CA	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,450	$1.63	5d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $175,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 61 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 60 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $175,000 Active 59 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 58 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 55 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 54 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 53 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 52 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 51 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$1,672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,719
• − Management: −$2,719
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $9,359
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,246
• After-tax cash flow: $9,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home in Southland Mobile Home Park offers a good condition with minimal repairs needed. Upgrades in paint, appliances, and landscaping would significantly enhance its value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both upgrading kitchen appliances — newer appliances improve functionality and appeal
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting interior walls — fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both upgrading kitchen appliances — newer appliances improve functionality and appeal ↑
• Both landscaping — improved landscaping enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manteca Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623610
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,426
• Composite: 28.5/100
• National rank: #6737
• State rank: #297 of 517 in CA

Livability — Manteca

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #17877

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manteca, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 98,916
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,185
• Household income: $89,172
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 876.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 42% Two or more races 18% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -407.05%
• Current HPI: 268.5708
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B