6541 Firefly Dr · Bagdad, FL 32583

$244,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,439 sqft · SingleFamily · 124 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,534 sqft lot $55/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The charming Rivers Cove community offers residents use of it's gorgeous Community Pool, Community Room and Playground. The ''Sullivan'' plan is a cozy cottage style home with no wasted space, a desirable open design for relaxed living. A stylish 4 bedroom, 2 bath home, plus a large storage room. Easy care beautiful wood look flooring, delightful kitchen with stainless appliances, quiet dishwasher, smooth top range, built in microwave and pantry. Also included is Fabric hurricane door/window protection and a Smart Home 'Connect' system with several convenient Smart Home Devices. ALL LISTING pictures, colors, features, and size may vary. Square footages are approximate.

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 2026

🏗️ New construction. The $244,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $280,900.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-260 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#571 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bagdad Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 498 students, 69% FRL); Hobbs Middle School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 700 students, 63% FRL); Milton High School (math 44% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 667 statewide, top 39%, 2,085 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 36% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Santa Rosa average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 1157 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 56% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $215,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.97%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,900
• List price: $244,900
• Delta: -12.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6565 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,439 (0%)	0mo	$249,900	$174	100
6533 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,439 (0%)	2mo	$252,000	$175	98
6521 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,439 (0%)	3mo	$259,900	$181	98
6493 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,439 (0%)	3mo	$250,000	$174	97
6469 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,439 (0%)	3mo	$249,900	$174	97
6513 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,439 (0%)	4mo	$259,900	$181	97
6501 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,439 (0%)	4mo	$250,000	$174	97
6465 Firefly Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,439 (0%)	5mo	$249,900	$174	96
6544 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+9%)	0mo	$279,900	$179	80
6564 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+9%)	1mo	$273,000	$174	79
6580 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+9%)	1mo	$279,900	$179	79
6516 Firefly Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,568 (+9%)	4mo	$279,900	$179	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-58,574
• Equity at exit: $41,883

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-57,512
• Equity at exit: $24,287

Cash invested: $78,652 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 32 active · 46 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.6 mo (28%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $257,900 ($188/sqft)
• Median days on market: 91 d
• This list price: 22% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +3.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 1157
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,198 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,473
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$351 /mo · $4,214/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$55
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-260

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,527

Max offer price $243,281

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-66	-5% $-163	+0% $-260	+5% $-357	+10% $-454
Rent	-10% $-434	-5% $-347	+0% $-260	+5% $-173	+10% $-86
Rate	-1.0pp $-119	-0.5pp $-189	base $-260	+0.5pp $-333	+1.0pp $-407

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,225
• Closing costs: $8,427
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4328 Jitterbug St Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,900	$1.25	6d	1	0.14mi
6317 Firefly Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1439	$2,000	$1.39	116d	1	0.24mi
4507 Fort Wagner Rd Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1854	$2,000	$1.08	0d	1	0.50mi
4170 Roosevelt Way Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1760	$1,850	$1.05	119d	1	0.58mi
6478 Da Lisa Rd Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1120	$1,900	$1.70	119d	1	0.88mi
6607 Woodbury Forest Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1680	$1,900	$1.13	119d	1	0.88mi
6116 Arlon Ln Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,900	$1.13	6d	1	1.27mi
4718 Lemoyne Vista Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,795	$1.16	119d	1	1.36mi
6436 Highway 90 Milton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0	675	$1,675	$2.48	0d	7	1.39mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.15 acresRoad directions available
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (annual fee)Association fee paid annuallyAssociation fee covers association servicesCommunity features include pool, community room, and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with open parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric service with circuit breakers and copper wiring
• Home design: Single-family home (not attached)One storyUnder construction / new construction
• Construction: Built with frame constructionSlab foundation1,439 total building area
• Exterior features: Front porchInterior lotShingle roofPaved roadPrivate maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countersPantryBuilt-in microwaveDishwasherEat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsBathrooms are new construction / not updated
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: BaseboardsDouble-pane windowsStorm windowsShutters
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups insideElectric water heater

HOA detail $55/mo · $660/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $244,900 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $244,900 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $244,900 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $244,900 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $244,900 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 118 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $244,900 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    price $244,900 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $247,900 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $247,900 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $247,900 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    pricedays on market $247,900 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 105 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    statusdays on marketlisting id $249,900 Active 104 DOM
18. 2026-08-16
    remarks 677-char remark
19. 2026-08-16
    statusdays on marketlisting id $249,900 Pending 101 DOM
20. 2026-08-16
    days on market $249,900 Active 103 DOM
21. 2026-08-15
    days on market $249,900 Active 102 DOM
22. 2026-08-14
    days on market $249,900 Active 101 DOM
23. 2026-08-13
    days on market $249,900 Active 100 DOM
24. 2026-08-12
    days on market $249,900 Active 99 DOM
25. 2026-08-11
    days on market $249,900 Active 98 DOM
26. 2026-08-10
    days on market $249,900 Active 97 DOM
27. 2026-08-09
    days on market $249,900 Active 96 DOM
28. 2026-08-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 95 DOM
29. 2026-08-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 94 DOM
30. 2026-08-06
    days on market $249,900 Active 93 DOM
31. 2026-08-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 92 DOM
32. 2026-08-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 91 DOM
33. 2026-08-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 90 DOM
34. 2026-07-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 87 DOM
35. 2026-07-29
    days on market $249,900 Active 85 DOM
36. 2026-07-27
    days on market $249,900 Active 83 DOM
37. 2026-07-25
    days on market $249,900 Active 81 DOM
38. 2026-07-24
    days on market $249,900 Active 80 DOM
39. 2026-07-23
    days on market $249,900 Active 79 DOM
40. 2026-07-22
    days on market $249,900 Active 78 DOM
41. 2026-07-21
    days on market $249,900 Active 77 DOM
42. 2026-07-18
    days on market $249,900 Active 74 DOM
43. 2026-07-16
    days on market $249,900 Active 72 DOM
44. 2026-07-16
    days on market $249,900 Active 71 DOM
45. 2026-07-14
    days on market $249,900 Active 70 DOM
46. 2026-07-13
    days on market $249,900 Active 69 DOM
47. 2026-07-12
    days on market $249,900 Active 68 DOM
48. 2026-07-11
    days on market $249,900 Active 67 DOM
49. 2026-07-10
    days on market $249,900 Active 66 DOM
50. 2026-07-09
    days on market $249,900 Active 65 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,374
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,735
• − Property taxes: −$4,214
• − Insurance: −$1,404
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,110
• − Management: −$2,110
• − HOA: −$660
• − Depreciation: −$8,172
• Taxable loss: −$8,031
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,927
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,195–$21,585 screening

This home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minor maintenance. The highest-ROI updates would be painting the exterior siding and replacing the countertops.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and adds value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 45/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bagdad Elementary School F FL #1,403/2,144 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Hobbs Middle School C FL #254/571 Nat'l #3,460/14,009 High Milton High School F FL #255/667 Nat'l #7,439/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 67/100

Livability — Bagdad

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #571
• US rank: #10887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bagdad, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 195,978 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

---

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.15 acresRoad directions available
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (annual fee)Association fee paid annuallyAssociation fee covers association servicesCommunity features include pool, community room, and sidewalks

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with open parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectric service with circuit breakers and copper wiring
• Home design: Single-family home (not attached)One storyUnder construction / new construction
• Construction: Built with frame constructionSlab foundation1,439 total building area
• Exterior features: Front porchInterior lotShingle roofPaved roadPrivate maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate countersPantryBuilt-in microwaveDishwasherEat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathroomsBathrooms are new construction / not updated
• Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: BaseboardsDouble-pane windowsStorm windowsShutters
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups insideElectric water heater

Price history

-6.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-22 Price Changed $252,900 PARMLS
• 2026-06-22 Price Changed $252,900 ECAR
• 2026-06-20 Price Changed $254,900 PARMLS
• 2026-06-20 Price Changed $254,900 ECAR
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $259,900 PARMLS
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $259,900 ECAR
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $264,900 PARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $264,900 ECAR
• 2026-05-07 Listed $270,900 ECAR
• 2026-05-05 Listed $270,900 PARMLS