26823 Scarlet Willow Dr · Houston, TX 77493

$254,490

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $320k · 20% under $183/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Ramsey Floor Plan - This new single-story design makes smart use of the space available. At the front are all three secondary bedrooms arranged near a convenient full-sized bathroom. Down the foyer is a modern layout connecting a peninsula-style kitchen made for inspired meals, an intimate dining area and a family room ideal for gatherings. Tucked in a quiet corner is the owner’s suite with an attached bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Intimate dining area
• Walk-in closet
• Single-story design

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY DESIGN
• PENINSULA-STYLE KITCHEN
• INTIMATE DINING AREA
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $268,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home; Active listing
• Construction: Ramsey plan; New construction (Spec)
• Exterior features: Property located at 26823 Scarlet Willow Dr, Katy, TX 77493

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction, Ramsey plan); Living area approximately 1,720

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $254k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $106 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $254k).
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2728 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $254,490

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.79%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $319,920
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
26811 Scarlet Willow Dr	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,720 (0%)	1mo	$270,590	$157	98
26707 Scarlet Willow Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,720 (0%)	1mo	$322,990	$188	92
26843 Vanilla Pearls Ln	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,656 (-4%)	0mo	$254,240	$154	88
6431 Green Pedal Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-7%)	1mo	$271,090	$169	75
26803 Scarlet Willow Dr	0.04mi	4/2.5	1,968 (+14%)	0mo	$275,240	$140	72
6427 Green Pedal Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+9%)	1mo	$308,990	$164	72
6426 Green Pedal Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (+11%)	1mo	$294,440	$154	69
27022 Turtle Vista Dr	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,635 (-5%)	1mo	$355,990	$218	64
27623 Hudson Sands Ln	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,750 (+2%)	1mo	$360,790	$206	62
27122 Turtle Vista Dr	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,635 (-5%)	1mo	$366,990	$224	62
27606 Crystalline Sage Ln	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,831 (+6%)	1mo	$340,990	$186	54
6402 Breakaway Grove Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (+4%)	1mo	$342,990	$191	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-41,907
• Equity at exit: $37,945

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-56,511
• Equity at exit: $22,004

Cash invested: $71,257 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2728
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,593 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,335
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$318 /mo · $3,817/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$183
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,458

Max offer price $254,490

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $282	-5% $194	+0% $106	+5% $18	+10% $-69
Rent	-10% $-98	-5% $4	+0% $106	+5% $209	+10% $311
Rate	-1.0pp $235	-0.5pp $171	base $106	+0.5pp $40	+1.0pp $-27

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,622
• Closing costs: $7,635
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	44d	1	0.54mi
26811 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,250	$1.36	44d	1	0.64mi
26642 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1949	$2,300	$1.18	44d	1	0.71mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	44d	1	0.73mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	21d	1	0.79mi
6758 Sunset Velvet Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,350	$1.49	44d	1	0.87mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	0d	25	0.93mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	13d	1	1.01mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	25d	1	1.02mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	25d	1	1.03mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	16d	1	1.08mi
26802 Cenzontle Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,850	$1.26	44d	1	1.08mi
3064 Dawn Sound Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	44d	1	1.10mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	4d	1	1.11mi
3056 Sea Turtle Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,200	$1.47	44d	1	1.14mi
7402 Clover Chase Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	44d	1	1.18mi
27022 Euphonia Green Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,939	$1.63	3d	1	1.35mi
3057 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1644	$2,252	$1.37	25d	1	1.38mi
3048 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	25d	1	1.43mi
3004 Majestic Sunrise Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,942	$1.32	44d	1	1.45mi
3020 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1776	$2,355	$1.33	13d	1	1.46mi
3071 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	25d	1	1.48mi
3083 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,185	$1.42	13d	1	1.49mi
3037 Wild Dunes Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1538	$2,164	$1.41	25d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $183 · $2,196/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $254,490 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $254,490 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $254,490 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $254,490 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $254,490 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $254,490 Active 5 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,255
• − Property taxes: −$3,817
• − Insurance: −$1,272
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,489
• − Management: −$2,489
• − HOA: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$7,403
• Taxable loss: −$2,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$675
• After-tax cash flow: $1,952/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home presents as move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. The modern kitchen and well-maintained exterior suggest a good investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Resale Kitchen appliances (if not new) — Upgrading to newer, more energy-efficient appliances can increase resale value.
• Resale Bathroom fixtures (if not new) — Upgrading to newer, more efficient fixtures can increase resale value.
• Both HVAC system maintenance — Regular maintenance can improve energy efficiency and reduce utility costs, enhancing both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants, increasing both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances (if not new) — Upgrading to newer, more energy-efficient appliances can increase resale value. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures (if not new) — Upgrading to newer, more efficient fixtures can increase resale value. ↑
• Both HVAC system maintenance — Regular maintenance can improve energy efficiency and reduce utility costs, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants, increasing both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B