20 Bates Creek Rd · Murphy, NC 28906

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,414 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1985 0.93 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offering great potential in a peaceful setting. Situated on a 0.93+/- acre lot, the property features a branch flowing through the yard, creating a relaxing outdoor space with natural charm. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with a spacious living area, a well-sized kitchen, and a split-bedroom floor plan for added privacy. The primary suite includes a private bath, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. This home does need some updates and repairs, making it a great opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to add their personal touch and build equity. With a little vision and work, this property could truly shine. Conveniently located and priced to sell, this is your chance to own a property with character, potential, and a beautiful natural setting.

Key facts

• Well-sized kitchen
• 0.93 acre lot
• Spacious living area

Tags

• 0.93 ACRE LOT
• BRANCH FLOWING THROUGH YARD
• RELAXING OUTDOOR SPACE
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREA
• WELL-SIZED KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $112 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 2.6% in Murphy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#292 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Cherokee County Schools (rural): math 42% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #90 of 178 in NC (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1130 active listings in the ZIP; 232 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cherokee County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.79%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-18,707
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,832
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28906

• Home prices YoY: -18.3%
• Active inventory: 1130
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,625 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,398/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $112

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,483

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $223	-5% $167	+0% $112	+5% $57	+10% $2
Rent	-10% $-16	-5% $48	+0% $112	+5% $176	+10% $240
Rate	-1.0pp $193	-0.5pp $153	base $112	+0.5pp $71	+1.0pp $28

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on marketlisting id $159,900 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on marketlisting id $159,900 Pending
3. 2026-04-23
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (880 chars)

   Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offering great potential in a peaceful setting. Situated on a 0.93+/- acre lot, the property features a branch flowing through the yard, creating a relaxing outdoor space with natural charm. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with a spacious living area, a well-sized kitchen, and a split-bedroom floor plan for added privacy. The primary suite includes a private bath, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. This home does need some updates and repairs, making it a great opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to add their personal touch and build equity. With a little vision and work, this property could truly shine. Conveniently located and priced to sell, this is your chance to own a property with character, potential, and a beautiful natural setting.

4. 2026-04-23
   status Pending 880-char remark

   Show marketing remark (880 chars)

   Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offering great potential in a peaceful setting. Situated on a 0.93+/- acre lot, the property features a branch flowing through the yard, creating a relaxing outdoor space with natural charm. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with a spacious living area, a well-sized kitchen, and a split-bedroom floor plan for added privacy. The primary suite includes a private bath, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. This home does need some updates and repairs, making it a great opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to add their personal touch and build equity. With a little vision and work, this property could truly shine. Conveniently located and priced to sell, this is your chance to own a property with character, potential, and a beautiful natural setting.

5. 2026-04-20
   status Active
6. 2026-04-20
   historical
7. 2026-04-17
   listed $159,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (880 chars)

   Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offering great potential in a peaceful setting. Situated on a 0.93+/- acre lot, the property features a branch flowing through the yard, creating a relaxing outdoor space with natural charm. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with a spacious living area, a well-sized kitchen, and a split-bedroom floor plan for added privacy. The primary suite includes a private bath, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. This home does need some updates and repairs, making it a great opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to add their personal touch and build equity. With a little vision and work, this property could truly shine. Conveniently located and priced to sell, this is your chance to own a property with character, potential, and a beautiful natural setting.

8. 2026-04-17
   listed $159,900 Active 880-char remark

   Show marketing remark (880 chars)

   Welcome to this 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home offering great potential in a peaceful setting. Situated on a 0.93+/- acre lot, the property features a branch flowing through the yard, creating a relaxing outdoor space with natural charm. Inside, you'll find a functional layout with a spacious living area, a well-sized kitchen, and a split-bedroom floor plan for added privacy. The primary suite includes a private bath, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for family, guests, or a home office. This home does need some updates and repairs, making it a great opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to add their personal touch and build equity. With a little vision and work, this property could truly shine. Conveniently located and priced to sell, this is your chance to own a property with character, potential, and a beautiful natural setting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,497
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,398
• − Insurance: −$1,597
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,560
• − Management: −$1,560
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$1,226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$294
• After-tax cash flow: $1,639/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cherokee County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700780
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $36,424
• Composite: 36.91/100
• National rank: #4542
• State rank: #90 of 178 in NC

Livability — Murphy

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #292
• US rank: #12327

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing C Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,712

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,672 people
• By 2030: 24,504 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 21,955 · -14.5%
• By 2050: 19,592 · -23.7%
• By 2075: 15,128 · -41.1%
• By 2100: 11,203 · -56.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.5) · D 20.8% · R 78.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -38.6pp · 2024: -57.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.5 2020: R+55.1 2016: R+57.0 2012: R+46.2 2008: R+38.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.19%
• Current HPI: 211.1795
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — NEGBOR
• 2026-04-23 Pending — MLBOR
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — NEGBOR
• 2026-04-20 Delisted — NEGBOR
• 2026-04-17 Listed $159,900 MLBOR
• 2026-04-17 Listed $159,900 NEGBOR

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $287 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.